Over at Uncle Gnarley, JM’s at it again with the first of a two-parter on Nalcor and its problems with forecasting for Muskrat Falls.
Nalcor assumed that they would get 830 megawatts of electricity out of Muskrat Falls in the winter months when demand is highest. That’s the number they gave everyone else and, as you can tell by the language Nalcor uses, it was an assumption, not a solid forecast. Now they say they should be able to get 673 MW at Soldier;s Pond from Muskrat Falls. That’s a difference of 157 MW, not an inconsiderable difference.
Tom Adams gets a lot of play as an expert on Ontario’s energy system. The fact that he is or was once associated with Lawrence Solomon’s group Energy Probe does not seem to put as many people off as I think it should. For example, the well-known economist Dr. Jack Mintz has a number of ideas that he thinks would put Ontario back on track fiscally. Cancelling the Feed In Tariffs (FIT) for wind and solar is one of them. When I asked him why he favored this particular policy, he deferred to Tom Adams: @Bigcitylib2 according to Tom Adams (Read more…)
Tom Adams, who occasionally achieves sanity when writing about energy issues, gets about half-way there in his piece yesterday, in particular when he touches on the pumped-storage project up in Marmora:
[PCPO MPP Todd ] Smith has …hounded the Minister of Energy over why he has “delayed in arriving at a contract to produce power” for the pumped energy storage project in the Municipality of Marmora and Lake. Proposed by Toronto-based Northland Power, the project is designed to counter the grid problems caused by fickle wind and solar output – which Northland also develops…After having visited the site for (Read more…)
There are bits of it I don’t agree with. For instance, any fair reading of Ontario history would show that the province’s dalliance with gas power predates the Green Energy Act, and wasn’t a conspiracy to cover-up (or “backstop”) the poor performance of its wind farms.
But most of it (meaning over half) is OK, even relatively informative. There are several bits that are particularly interesting, because they undermine the arguments anti-wind types, Adams among them, have made on previous occasions. For instance this:
Adams said the real effect of the wind and solar investments on bills has yet to (Read more…)
Here are some treats to keep you up with the latest developments on the Muskrat falls front.
For starters, CBC’s Anthony Germain interviewed Tom Adams on Thursday about Adams’ contention that the Muskrat Falls project will add a significant debt load on the province. It’s the third audio file from the top on that linked page, incidentally.
How’s $12,000 per person for a significant debt load?
Adams points out that the industry standard way of figuring out costs for electricity projects makes Muskrat Falls hideously expensive. Nalcor’s estimate, incidentally, is that the cost using the industry-standard
. . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Muskrat Three-some #nlpoli
The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones.
William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar
In his latest post on Muskrat Falls, energy analyst Tom Adams argues that the provincial government wants to finance Muskrat Falls in a way that shifts the costs and the risks to future generations.
“This proposed financial model inappropriately mixes elements of a power purchase agreement (PPA),” writes Adams, “often used in some elements of the utility industry, and government subsidies to create what Jane Jacobs described in her book Systems of Survival as a “monstrous hybrid”. This
. . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Living after them #nlpoli
If you’ve been following the ongoing Muskrat Falls saga, you will recall that energy analyst Tom Adams raised some questions a couple of months ago about whether or not Muskrat Falls could actually produce the power Nalcor and the provincial government claimed.
The problem basically came down to this:
January through to March is when Muskrat Falls needs to produce the most power. That’s when Holyrood would be cranking at full tilt to meet demand on the island for lights and heat in the winter months. At the same time, the Nova Scotians will need to get their guaranteed block. . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Nova Scotia would get Churchill Falls power for free #nlpoli