Prog Blog’s Flickr Photostream

Babel-on-the-Bay: But what if FPTP isn’t broke?

You almost hate to ask the question. What is wrong with the way Canadians vote? There seems to be an assumption by some people that first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting is a failure. Does that mean you have to dump FPTP and take a flier on some other theoretically improved voting system? And why is it better? […] . . . → Read More: Babel-on-the-Bay: But what if FPTP isn’t broke?

Cowichan Conversations: Welcome Back To Canada- The Sun Is Shining Brighter!

It’s a beautiful day in the neighbourhood.

This post should write itself. I should be able to rest my fingers on the keyboard and have them automatically write of the defeat of Conservative PM

Read more…

Accidental Deliberations: #elxn42 – Election Day Resources

For all the time spent on Canada’s federal election, it’s now time for voters to have their say. And anybody looking for basic information on where and how to vote should start with Elections Canada or a trusted local campaign.

For anybody wanting to read up on the factors which may help determine how to vote…- As always, I’ll strongly recommend that people vote for what they want, not merely against what they don’t. To see which party best matches your vision for Canada, you can find the major parties’ platforms at the following links: Conservative – NDP – (Read more…)

Writings of J. Todd Ring: Election 2015 and Strategic Voting: Madness, or Practical Necessity?

An economic and political analysis of Canada, neoliberalism, and the world Get a cup of coffee or tea, or a glass of wine, and settle in – this is not sound-bite commentary. We are going to dig deep. “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson It pains me to […]

Writings of J. Todd Ring: Election 2015 and Strategic Voting: Madness, or Practical Necessity?

An economic and political analysis of Canada, neoliberalism, and the world Get a cup of coffee or tea, or a glass of wine, and settle in – this is not sound-bite commentary. We are going to dig deep. “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson It pains me to […]

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal

The riding of Nipissing—Timiskaming was one of the closest in the country in 2011. The Conservative Jay Aspin defeated the Liberal Anthony Rota by a mere 18 votes.  The NDP received 8,781 and the Greens 2,518.

Clearly this is a riding where strategic voting is desired.  Nor is it difficult to see that strategic voters should line up behind the Liberal.

If there were any doubt about that, a local opinion poll conducted by CTV should remove it:

Some recent posts: Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP Strategic voting (Read more…) . . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nipissing—Timiskaming: vote Liberal

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal

If polls are to be believed, the Liberals are dominating in Ontario. Grenier’s poll tracker projects the Liberal support in Ontario at 43% and the Conservatives down to 31%: Ontario Polls from Poll Tracker This shift against Harper is showing up on the ground in ridings that one would normally assume are fairly safe, such as Perth-Wellington, where a local poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia, which found a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals: If this poll is correct, strategic voters in Perth-Wellington should vote for the Liberals.

The riding includes such towns as Stratford, St. (Read more…) . . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Perth-Wellington: vote Liberal

Bouquets of Gray: Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Calgary Conferation,Calgary Skyview,Calgary Centre

This election has a few more surprises than most, and the fracturing of the Conservatives’ fortress in Calgary might be one of them.

A news story from the CBC reports that three Calgary ridings are surprisingly competitive: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview.

This is also the interpretation of Eric Grenier over at threehundredeight.com.  His current projections for the Calgary ridings paint three ridings red: Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, and Calgary Skyview

Calgary projections from threehundredeight.com

The striking thing is not merely that Grenier’s a projecting these three seat for the (Read more…)

. . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Calgary Confederation, Skyview, and Centre: strategic voters should support the Liberals

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal

Strategic voting inEdmonton Mill Woods

Recent local polls are bringing up some more opportunities for strategic voters, one of them is Edmonton Millwoods.

Edmonton Millwoods is a new riding located in south-east Edmonton. It was formed from the previous riding of Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, which was once represented by Liberal David Kilgour.

A new poll conducted by MainStreet Research for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting suggests that the riding could be in play: New Poll in Edmonton Mill Woods

Some recent posts:

Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen (Read more…) . . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Edmonton Mill Woods: vote Liberal

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: New poll show Liberal lead

Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding made up of the urban and suburban parts of what used to be Ancaster-Dundas-Flamorough-Westdale.  Its formation resulted in the rural polls of Flamborough being joined with Glanborough to form a new largely rural riding.

HWAD should now be a three-way race, with Conservative voters from upscale Ancaster and Dundas, NDP voters from Hamilton, and Liberals from both.  And it should be an active riding for all parties, because the McMaster student base should become active in all three parties.

Strategic voting in HWAD

If the 2011 are redistributed (Read more…)

. . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic Voting in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas: New poll show Liberal lead

The Canadian Progressive: 8 Ridings Where Voters Can Defeat Harper by Strategically Voting NDP

A Vancouver-based data scientist recently identified 8 riding where voters can move a step closer to defeating Stephen Harper – and installing Thomas Mulcair as Canada’s next prime minister – by strategically voting NDP on Oct. 19.

The post 8 Ridings Where Voters Can Defeat Harper by Strategically Voting NDP appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

A new local poll reveals another riding that is surprisingly competitive: Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, which includes the city of Owen Sound and towns such as Port Elgin, Southampton, Walkerton, Wiarton, Lucknow, Hanover, and Meaford.

The riding has been reliably Conservative since 2004, sending Larry Miller to Ottawa with ever increasing margins.

The voters of Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, however, may have had enough of the Conservatives.

A poll in the riding in September showed some weakness and a new poll released today confirms that:

To judge from today’s poll, the Liberals may be within striking distance if a few (Read more…)

. . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: vote Liberal

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George

Cariboo-Prince George is large and remote, making up some 80,000 sq. km. of central BC and includes the cities of Quesnel and Williams Lake.

Cariboo-Prince George is not a place that one would expect the Conservatives to be vulnerable—it has been reliably Conservative since the late 70s.

Recent polls, however, show that the NDP could defeat them here:

The key is that anti-Harper voters support the NDP.

Some recent posts: Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP Strategic voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote (Read more…) . . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Cariboo-Prince George: vote NDP

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic Voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal

Strategic voting in Central Nova

The riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia is a riding where strategic voting could make a difference.  Its long-time MP, Peter MacKay, is not standing for re-election. MacKay had won with over 50% of the vote, and his decision to retire from politics hurts the Conservatives in Nova Scotia.

How much it has hurt can be seen in the new figures, where Eric Grenier sees 40% as the high estimate for Conservative support. Some local polling also suggest the Cons are vulnerable here: Given that the polls were taken only a few days apart, (Read more…) . . . → Read More: Bouquets of Gray: Strategic Voting in Central Nova: vote Liberal

CuriosityCat: Forum Poll: Why Stephen Harper has only 7 days left as prime minister

The Great Canadian 2015 Revolution

The Harper government has, during its four years of majority government, managed to persuade millions of Canadians that they have to vote in a different way in this election. Harper managed to grab power by cementing his conservative base, and using wedge politics to open the gap between the split opposition groups.

The Law of Unintended Consequences then stepped in. Men propose, the gods dispose … Voters watched in dismay as the Harper regime proceeded in a very systematic way to implement their hidden agenda of removing any vestige of liberal thought or action from (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Forum Poll: Why Stephen Harper has only 7 days left as prime minister

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk: vote Liberal

Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com is a great resource for strategic voters, as this map illustrates. Strategic voting in Haldimand-Norfolk

The riding in question is Haldimand-Norfolk on the shores of Lake Erie, which includes  Caledonia, Dunnville, Hagersville, Jarvis and Cayuga in Haldimand and  Simcoe and Port Dover in Norfolk.

Grenier’s figures are helpful because they project what he estimates on the basis of the most recent polls and how they might factor into different ridings.

Here his best guess is that the Conservatives will take the riding by a couple percent.  A modicum of strategic voting here, however, could push the Liberals over (Read more…)

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in North Island-Powell River: vote NDP

The teams over at votetogether.ca have begun making recommendations in dozens of ridings for the up-coming election. They have recommended that strategic voters in North Island-Powell River support vote the NDP.  In addition to other factors they point to an Environics poll from Sept. 19 in which the NDP (41%) were well ahead of the Conservatives (27%), the Liberals (18%), and the Greens.

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith: vote NDP

The good people at votetogether.ca have begun making their recommendations, which include one for strategic voting in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

Some of their other recommendations: Strategic voting in Calgary Centre: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona: vote NDP Strategic voting in Eglinton—Lawrence: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Etobicoke—Lakeshore: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Fredericton: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Kootenay—Columbia: vote NDP Strategic voting in London North Centre: vote Liberal Strategic voting in Nanaimo—Ladysmith: vote NDP Strategic voting (Read more…)

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Courtney-Alberni

Courtney-Alberni is a new riding that combines part of what used to be Nanaimo—Alberni (69%) and Vancouver Island North (31%). The riding includes Port Alberni and Courtney (obviously), as well as Parksville and

The Conservative candidate in Courtney-Alberni is John Duncan, who took 46% of vote in 2011, over the 2nd place NDPer with 43%.

The new riding is slightly less favourable to Duncan.  If the 2011 votes are redistributed within its boundaries, the Conservative would have received 45%, the NDP 41%, the Greens and Liberals both at 7%.

By itself this should mean that strategic (Read more…)

Montreal Simon: Stephen Harper’s Monstrous and Most Miserable Thanksgiving

Well it must have been a very special Thanksgiving celebration at Stephen Harper's house, with a bloody niqab replacing a squawking turkey.A chance to give thanks for all those shiny new seats that bigot issue has earned him in Quebec.But after he had finished gobbling his ghastly meal down, and allowed Jason Kenney to gnaw on the carcass, it must also have been his most miserable Thanksgiving ever.For this must have given him a really bad case of indigestion.Read more »

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Oshawa: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Oshawa

The riding of Oshawa is another one where strategic voting could make a difference. It’s boundaries have changed slightly, losing territory to Durham and gaining it from Whitby—Oshawa.

The 2011 results were solidly Conservative; if they are redistributed according to the new riding boundaries, they’d be: Con (51%), NDP (37%), Lib 8%, Green 4%.

There is no local polling to help the strategic voter out here, but recent national polls seem to suggest that the Conservatives are down in Ontario and the Liberals are up.  If strategically voting Liberals and Greens in Oshawa can swim against (Read more…)

Bouquets of Gray: Vote together makes strategic recommendations in sixteen ridings

The good people over at votetogether.ca is making the following strategic choices for voters in the 2015 election:

Alberta  Strategic voting in Calgary Centre: vote Liberal  Strategic voting in Calgary Confederation: vote Liberal

British Columbia  Strategic voting in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: vote NDP  Strategic voting in Kootenay—Columbia: vote NDP  Strategic voting in Nanaimo—Ladysmith: vote NDP  Strategic voting in North Island—Powell River: vote NDP  Strategic voting in Port Moody—Coquitlam: vote NDP

Manitoba  Strategic voting in Elmwood—Transcona: vote NDP  Strategic voting in Winnipeg South Centre: (Read more…)

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in Peterborough—Kawartha: vote Liberal

Peterborough—Kawartha is a new riding made up mostly from the old riding of Peterborough.  It includes (obviously) Peterborough and its environs.

Dean Del Mastro convicted

Strategic voters in Peterborough—Kawartha have good reason to want to avoid vote splitting and change parties in this election.  Its Conservative MP for the last decade has been the odious Dean Del who was found guilty last year of electoral corruption and tampering wiht documents and sent to prison.

In the last election, Delmastro was elected quite easily with 47% of the vote, followed by the Liberal with 32% and the NDP with 14%.

Two (Read more…)

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay: vote NDP

Strategic voting in South Okanagan-West Kootenay

The riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay in a new riding that includes the cities Castlegar, Grand Forks, Oliver, Osoyoos, Penticton, and Trail. That is, it is made up of parts of the old British Columbia Southern Interior, which NDP Alex Atamanenko had represented, and Okanagan-Coquihalla, which had voted Conservative.

If one redistributes the 2011 votes in the new ridings (as is done here), the results would be Con. 45%,  NDP 39%, Lib. 7%, Green 8%.  This suggests that avoiding vote splitting is key here, given that Atamanenko has retired. A local poll conducted (Read more…)

Bouquets of Gray: Strategic voting Kootenay-Columbia: vote NDP

Strategic voting in Kootenay-Columbia

As I pointed out in my post on strategic voting in North Okanagan—Shuswap, some might be surprised that some of these ridings in the BC Interior are competitive enough.

Such is also the case in Kootenay-Columbia, which includes Cranbrook, Revelstoke, Kimberley, Fernie, Golden, Sparwood, and Nelson.  In the last election, vote splitting wasn’t a factor: the Conservative won with 50% of the vote, compared to 39% NDP, 4% Liberal, and 6% Green.

A redrawing of the riding, however, has brought 4000 net NDP votes into the riding and this could make a difference.

An Environics (Read more…)