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We Pivot: What Political Scientists and Pollsters Don’t Know

Clearly a great deal.

Polling is broken. Random sampling is gone. People lie. People self-select. People self-deselect.

Pollsters try to adjust for demographics, but they fail.

Political scientists?

Most of us do not have enough of a sense of the breadth of the populace to have been able to expect a massive Trump win like . . . → Read More: We Pivot: What Political Scientists and Pollsters Don’t Know

Alberta Politics: Rachel Notley does remarkably well in face of unrelenting campaign of vilification … Sun newspapers? Not so much …

PHOTOS: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. Below: Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, the Mr. Congeniality of Confederation if you believe his press clippings; Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister. Notwithstanding a flagging economy and an unprecedented campaign of continual vilification by mass media, Astro-Turf agitators, corporate-bankrolled think tanks, right-wing academics and a nearly hysterical online conservative rage machine, Alberta […]

The post Rachel Notley does remarkably well in face of unrelenting campaign of vilification … Sun newspapers? Not so much … appeared first on Alberta Politics.

. . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Rachel Notley does remarkably well in face of unrelenting campaign of vilification … Sun newspapers? Not so much …

Alberta Politics: News you may have missed: pollster says Alberta NDP could win an election held tomorrow!

PHOTOS: Albertans scour the Alberta media for information about provincial politics, but they’re all getting exactly the same story. Actual politically engaged Albertans may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, Alb… . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: News you may have missed: pollster says Alberta NDP could win an election held tomorrow!

Alberta Politics: Motion demanding public support for private and charter schools backfires on Alberta Tory Leader

PHOTOS: Interim Alberta Tory Leader Ric McIver and another PC are ejected from the Legislature yesterday by the Sergeant at Arms. Actual Alberta MLAs may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: The Real Ric McIver and Edmonton Public School Board Cha… . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Motion demanding public support for private and charter schools backfires on Alberta Tory Leader

Alberta Politics: Unite-the-right poll results ring alarm bells and raise interesting questions, none of which are asked by the media

PHOTOS: A pollster asks a typical Albertan if she’d prefer to vote for a united Wildrose-PC Party … or the NDP. Actual Alberta pollsters and their subjects may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Pollster Quito Maggi, Alberta Prosperity Fund … . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Unite-the-right poll results ring alarm bells and raise interesting questions, none of which are asked by the media

Alberta Politics: Poll puts NDP in third place among Albertans – a plausible result despite a pollster’s debatable analysis

PHOTOS: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. Below: Pollster Quito Maggi of Mainstreet Research, grabbed from his Twitter account, and former PC premier Ed Stelmach, whose personal popularity held through the economic downturn of 2007 and 2008. Late last wee… . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Poll puts NDP in third place among Albertans – a plausible result despite a pollster’s debatable analysis

Alberta Politics: Progress Alberta, new progressive advocacy group, will make waves … not just with opponents but maybe on own side too

PHOTOS: The Alberta Legislature, suitably decorated for the province’s progressive and proudly diverse population. Below: Progress Alberta Executive Director Duncan Kinney. Progress Alberta, a new group that describes itself as “a multi-issue, inde… . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Progress Alberta, new progressive advocacy group, will make waves … not just with opponents but maybe on own side too

Alberta Politics: Are moderate Alberta conservatives likely to find themselves waking up to a Wildrose nightmare?

ILLUSTRATIONS: It’s a nightmare alright – but whose? Actual Alberta voters may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Wildrose Leader Brian Jean and NDP Premier Rachel Notley. (Both shown in CBC photos.) The prevailing narrative in the Alberta m… . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Are moderate Alberta conservatives likely to find themselves waking up to a Wildrose nightmare?

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls must be wrong #nlpoli

Over the past couple of weeks,  some people have been questioning the accuracy of public opinion polls.

People have questioned the polls in the federal election, especially after the defeat of two candidates in metro St. John’s a lot of people thought would win.  The two polls released last week show the Liberals with such . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls must be wrong #nlpoli

Alberta Politics: Eleven grinding weeks and this federal election comes down to a science question: momentum, or inertia?

PHOTOS: Federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair on stage in Edmonton Friday night (photo by Olav Rokne). The red signs say “Stop Harper.” Perhaps at this hour they should say “Stop Trudeau!” Below: Well-known Alberta pollster Janet Brown, Calgary Centre Liberal candidate Kent Hehr, former Mississauga, Ont., mayor Hazel McCallion, and Australian campaign dirty-tricks mogul Lynton . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Eleven grinding weeks and this federal election comes down to a science question: momentum, or inertia?

Alberta Politics: The refugee crisis: Harper Conservatives just can’t spin it both ways

PHOTOS: Refugees from the Syrian civil war clog a road near the Syria-Iraq border. (UNHCR photo.) Below: Saskatchewan Conservative MP Kelly Block’s constituency leaflet; Ms. Block herself; Immigration Minister Chris Alexander. For several years, the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has played to the worst instincts of a significant portion of its political base . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: The refugee crisis: Harper Conservatives just can’t spin it both ways

Alberta Politics: NDP strength in Calgary-Foothills riding suggests May 5 election was no fluke – and could rattle federal Tory narrative

PHOTOS: A Chinook arch moves across the sky of Calgary in 2007, bringing warmer temperatures and, for some people, headaches. The same kind of thing happens in politics. Below: NDP Calgary-Foothills candidate Bob Hawkesworth, Conservative Blair Houston and Wildroser Prasad Panda. So, what happens if the Alberta NDP wins the Calgary-Foothills by-election on Sept. 3, . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: NDP strength in Calgary-Foothills riding suggests May 5 election was no fluke – and could rattle federal Tory narrative

Alberta Politics: Is there enough Orange Wave left in Alberta to propel more Dippers to Ottawa?

ILLUSTRATIONS: A typical Alberta conservative voter, with orange hair, flirts with NDP leader Thomas Mulcair while Prime Minister Stephan Harper, in the background, tries to warn her to stop. Actual Alberta political figures may not appear exactly as illustrated. With apologies to Normal Rockwell. Below: Alberta political commentator Duane Bratt. Could there be enough momentum . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Is there enough Orange Wave left in Alberta to propel more Dippers to Ottawa?

Alberta Politics: Two polls, widely different results, and Postmedia only reports one – what gives?

PHOTOS: “It is indeed Christmas in July for Conservatives!” Maybe it’s July, but is this guy really Santa Claus? Below: Pollsters Quito Maggi and Lorne Bozinoff. A Forum Research Inc. interactive voice response poll conducted on Tuesday of this week indicates 34 per cent of decided voters plan to vote NDP, 29 per cent to . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Two polls, widely different results, and Postmedia only reports one – what gives?

Alberta Politics: Murky and contradictory poll results, weird timing, unlikely to divert media from its dubious narrative about Alberta’s NDP

PHOTOS: “Press 1 if you support the Wildrose Party …” With the right digital equipment, the whole family can have fun with demon-dialler public opinion polls, even down on the farm in rural Southern Alberta. Below: Novice political columnists learn how to cover the news in Alberta. According to news accounts of last week’s Mainstreet . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: Murky and contradictory poll results, weird timing, unlikely to divert media from its dubious narrative about Alberta’s NDP

Alberta Politics: New Democrats to have real nomination battle in Calgary-Foothills riding

PHOTOS: Skilled polling technicians monitor the interactive voice response equipment the day before Canada Day. Actual Canadian pollsters may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: NDP Calgary-Foothills nomination candidates Anne Wilson and Bob Hawkesworth. Notwithstanding a gloomy demon-dialler poll suggesting voter support has migrated from the NDP Government to the Opposition Wildrose Party, there will . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: New Democrats to have real nomination battle in Calgary-Foothills riding

Blevkog: “It’s real – get over it”

So says ipolitics (pay wall), referring to the NDP surge that was confirmed this week by polls released by EKOS and by other groups. They go on to demonstrate that, while NDP numbers jumped dramatically with the recent Alberta provincial election results, the upsurge really began as early as February. What this graph (shown below) . . . → Read More: Blevkog: “It’s real – get over it”

Alberta Politics: A vote for the NDP is a vote for change; a vote for the Wildrose Party is a vote for the same old Tory dynasty

PHOTOS: Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley. Below: Premier Jim Prentice, Wildrose Leader Brian Jean, neoconservative godfather Preston Manning. With five new polls yesterday showing Alberta’s New Democrats approaching minority government territory and the “ooga-booga” fear campaign against the NDP beginning in earnest, perhaps it’s time for Albertans who urgently want to rid our province of . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: A vote for the NDP is a vote for change; a vote for the Wildrose Party is a vote for the same old Tory dynasty

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Stragedy and Polls: Chop House version #nlpoli

Public opinion polls are a really useful thing in politics.

The Liberals did a poll the weekend before the Liberals and Conservatives voted to slash public representation in the legislature.  They bought into the scheme in largest part because it looked hugely popular.

The problem with the poll results is that they didn’t tell the . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Stragedy and Polls: Chop House version #nlpoli

Alberta Diary: Jim Prentice revealed as Hayek ‘disciple’; Heather Forsyth to lead Wildrose rump; Preston Manning says he’s sorry … and more!

A crowd of typical Albertans reacts to the news Danielle Smith and most of her caucus have gone and joined Premier Jim Prentice’s PCs. Below: Mr. Prentice; neoliberal saint Friedrich Hayek; Preston Manning, who is really, really sorry he didn’t counsel a vote or something; interim Wildrose Leader Heather Forsyth; and new Tory . . . → Read More: Alberta Diary: Jim Prentice revealed as Hayek ‘disciple’; Heather Forsyth to lead Wildrose rump; Preston Manning says he’s sorry … and more!

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The October 2014 NTV/MQO Poll Numbers #nlpoli

NTV commissioned NTV to poll opinion about the provincial Conservatives a month after Paul Davis took over as Premier.

The party choice numbers are simple enough:  Liberals at 37,  Conservatives at 16,  the NDP at just six percent, and undecided at 40.

Leadership numbers Put Dwight Ball of the Liberals slightly ahead of Paul Davis . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The October 2014 NTV/MQO Poll Numbers #nlpoli

Alberta Diary: Just as things were looking up a bit for foundering PCs, Alison Redford showed up again

Alison Redford contemplates which way to turn as she leaves behind a trail of devastation, toward the capital city’s new Sky Palace Hotel, left, or toward Edmonton’s High Level Bridge, right. Actual former premiers and the landmarks they threaten may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: The real Ms. Redford; Tory leadership candidates . . . → Read More: Alberta Diary: Just as things were looking up a bit for foundering PCs, Alison Redford showed up again

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Understanding election polls #nlpoli

If you want to get a decent discussion of the Ontario election results and the way polling research tracked the campaign, take a look at a piece from The Star on Sunday.

The piece talks about different ways of conducting a poll – Internet panel,  live calls or automated calls – and compares the results . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Understanding election polls #nlpoli

Politics, Re-Spun: Ontario Election: Polling Fails Again!

After spectacular failures during the Alberta and BC elections, polling, as an industry struggling for credibility, lost yesterday’s election in Ontario along with the neoliberal, anti-social Hudak.

308.com reviewed the polling as of the day before the election. Polls indicated that there would most likely be a Liberal minority government. Those polls missed the extra . . . → Read More: Politics, Re-Spun: Ontario Election: Polling Fails Again!

cmkl: How many more elections until we stop paying attention to polls

I have to wonder why phone polls are still news and still given so much credence both by the media, media consumers and the political class generally. Almost the most interesting thing about the Ontario election (apart from the disintegration of Tim Hudak’s written-for-buzzfeed campaign platform) has been how completely whacked opinion poll numbers have . . . → Read More: cmkl: How many more elections until we stop paying attention to polls