Babel-on-the-Bay: Is that Mainstreet or Elm Street?

Having started out as a young man writing scripts for telephone co-incidental research, we are not about to easily buy into Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling. This is mentioned in that some recent political polls in Alberta and B.C. have the politicos excited. The polls were done with IVR by Mainstreet Research. What we have ...

Alberta Politics: Two polls and three by-elections signal an interesting spell in Alberta politics ahead

PHOTOS: No love lost for pipelines in B.C. – and all of a sudden that could have an impact on politics in Alberta (Rabble.ca photo). Below: Mainstreet research President Quito Maggi, B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark and Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley. Two polls were published this week by Mainstreet Research – one on the ...

Alberta Politics: Lid’s still on the unite-the-right soup the Wildrose Party’s leader is cooking up, but there are hints about the recipe

PHOTOS: Wildrose Party Leader Brian Jean gets ready to explain his plan to unite Alberta’s right under his leadership as a giant bull crashes through the wall behind him. The circumstances portrayed in this photo, found on the wildrose.ca website, may not have been exactly as just described. Below: Justin Trudeau and his father Pierre, ...

Alberta Politics: Merry Christmas to all! Santa is bringing presents for everyone this holiday, regardless of political orientation

PHOTOS: Merry Christmas! Your blogger with a man who can penetrate North American air defences with ease. Russian President Vladimir Putin may not appear exactly as illustrated. (Joke.) Below: Political strategist Stephen Carter with the same blogger; Alberta pollster Janet Brown; Conservative strategist Alan Hallman, who is now associated with Jason Kenney’s Alberta Progressive Conservative ...

We Pivot: What Political Scientists and Pollsters Don’t Know

Clearly a great deal. Polling is broken. Random sampling is gone. People lie. People self-select. People self-deselect. Pollsters try to adjust for demographics, but they fail. Political scientists? Most of us do not have enough of a sense of the breadth of the populace to have been able to expect a massive Trump win like ...

Alberta Politics: Rachel Notley does remarkably well in face of unrelenting campaign of vilification … Sun newspapers? Not so much …

PHOTOS: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. Below: Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, the Mr. Congeniality of Confederation if you believe his press clippings; Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister. Notwithstanding a flagging economy and an unprecedented campaign of continual vilification by mass media, Astro-Turf agitators, corporate-bankrolled think tanks, right-wing academics and a nearly hysterical online conservative rage machine, Alberta ...

Alberta Politics: News you may have missed: pollster says Alberta NDP could win an election held tomorrow!

PHOTOS: Albertans scour the Alberta media for information about provincial politics, but they’re all getting exactly the same story. Actual politically engaged Albertans may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, Alberta Opposition Leader Brian Jean and PC leadership candidate Jason Kenney. From the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, it seemed ...

Alberta Politics: Motion demanding public support for private and charter schools backfires on Alberta Tory Leader

PHOTOS: Interim Alberta Tory Leader Ric McIver and another PC are ejected from the Legislature yesterday by the Sergeant at Arms. Actual Alberta MLAs may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: The Real Ric McIver and Edmonton Public School Board Chairperson Michael Janz. Has Progressive Conservative Party interim Leader Ric McIver’s motion demanding the Alberta ...

Alberta Politics: Unite-the-right poll results ring alarm bells and raise interesting questions, none of which are asked by the media

PHOTOS: A pollster asks a typical Albertan if she’d prefer to vote for a united Wildrose-PC Party … or the NDP. Actual Alberta pollsters and their subjects may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Pollster Quito Maggi, Alberta Prosperity Fund and Advocacy Ltd. spokesperson Dave Rutherford, and Preston Manning, who needs no introduction around this ...

Alberta Politics: Poll puts NDP in third place among Albertans – a plausible result despite a pollster’s debatable analysis

PHOTOS: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. Below: Pollster Quito Maggi of Mainstreet Research, grabbed from his Twitter account, and former PC premier Ed Stelmach, whose personal popularity held through the economic downturn of 2007 and 2008. Late last week, the Calgary Herald reported the results of a poll that indicated Alberta’s NDP government has “plummeted” to ...

Alberta Politics: Progress Alberta, new progressive advocacy group, will make waves … not just with opponents but maybe on own side too

PHOTOS: The Alberta Legislature, suitably decorated for the province’s progressive and proudly diverse population. Below: Progress Alberta Executive Director Duncan Kinney. Progress Alberta, a new group that describes itself as “a multi-issue, independent, non-profit advocacy organization,” kicked off its mission yesterday by announcing that a new poll it had commissioned “shows that Alberta is more ...

Alberta Politics: Are moderate Alberta conservatives likely to find themselves waking up to a Wildrose nightmare?

ILLUSTRATIONS: It’s a nightmare alright – but whose? Actual Alberta voters may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: Wildrose Leader Brian Jean and NDP Premier Rachel Notley. (Both shown in CBC photos.) The prevailing narrative in the Alberta media, as a headline in the reliably pro-Wildrose Edmonton Sun put it earlier this week, is that ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls must be wrong #nlpoli

Over the past couple of weeks,  some people have been questioning the accuracy of public opinion polls. People have questioned the polls in the federal election, especially after the defeat of two candidates in metro St. John’s a lot of people thought would win.  The two polls released last week show the Liberals with such ...

Alberta Politics: Eleven grinding weeks and this federal election comes down to a science question: momentum, or inertia?

PHOTOS: Federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair on stage in Edmonton Friday night (photo by Olav Rokne). The red signs say “Stop Harper.” Perhaps at this hour they should say “Stop Trudeau!” Below: Well-known Alberta pollster Janet Brown, Calgary Centre Liberal candidate Kent Hehr, former Mississauga, Ont., mayor Hazel McCallion, and Australian campaign dirty-tricks mogul Lynton ...

Alberta Politics: The refugee crisis: Harper Conservatives just can’t spin it both ways

PHOTOS: Refugees from the Syrian civil war clog a road near the Syria-Iraq border. (UNHCR photo.) Below: Saskatchewan Conservative MP Kelly Block’s constituency leaflet; Ms. Block herself; Immigration Minister Chris Alexander. For several years, the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has played to the worst instincts of a significant portion of its political base ...

Alberta Politics: NDP strength in Calgary-Foothills riding suggests May 5 election was no fluke – and could rattle federal Tory narrative

PHOTOS: A Chinook arch moves across the sky of Calgary in 2007, bringing warmer temperatures and, for some people, headaches. The same kind of thing happens in politics. Below: NDP Calgary-Foothills candidate Bob Hawkesworth, Conservative Blair Houston and Wildroser Prasad Panda. So, what happens if the Alberta NDP wins the Calgary-Foothills by-election on Sept. 3, ...

Alberta Politics: Is there enough Orange Wave left in Alberta to propel more Dippers to Ottawa?

ILLUSTRATIONS: A typical Alberta conservative voter, with orange hair, flirts with NDP leader Thomas Mulcair while Prime Minister Stephan Harper, in the background, tries to warn her to stop. Actual Alberta political figures may not appear exactly as illustrated. With apologies to Normal Rockwell. Below: Alberta political commentator Duane Bratt. Could there be enough momentum ...

Alberta Politics: Two polls, widely different results, and Postmedia only reports one – what gives?

PHOTOS: “It is indeed Christmas in July for Conservatives!” Maybe it’s July, but is this guy really Santa Claus? Below: Pollsters Quito Maggi and Lorne Bozinoff. A Forum Research Inc. interactive voice response poll conducted on Tuesday of this week indicates 34 per cent of decided voters plan to vote NDP, 29 per cent to ...

Alberta Politics: Murky and contradictory poll results, weird timing, unlikely to divert media from its dubious narrative about Alberta’s NDP

PHOTOS: “Press 1 if you support the Wildrose Party …” With the right digital equipment, the whole family can have fun with demon-dialler public opinion polls, even down on the farm in rural Southern Alberta. Below: Novice political columnists learn how to cover the news in Alberta. According to news accounts of last week’s Mainstreet ...

Alberta Politics: New Democrats to have real nomination battle in Calgary-Foothills riding

PHOTOS: Skilled polling technicians monitor the interactive voice response equipment the day before Canada Day. Actual Canadian pollsters may not appear exactly as illustrated. Below: NDP Calgary-Foothills nomination candidates Anne Wilson and Bob Hawkesworth. Notwithstanding a gloomy demon-dialler poll suggesting voter support has migrated from the NDP Government to the Opposition Wildrose Party, there will ...

Blevkog: “It’s real – get over it”

So says ipolitics (pay wall), referring to the NDP surge that was confirmed this week by polls released by EKOS and by other groups. They go on to demonstrate that, while NDP numbers jumped dramatically with the recent Alberta provincial election results, the upsurge really began as early as February. What this graph (shown below) also ...

Alberta Politics: A vote for the NDP is a vote for change; a vote for the Wildrose Party is a vote for the same old Tory dynasty

PHOTOS: Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley. Below: Premier Jim Prentice, Wildrose Leader Brian Jean, neoconservative godfather Preston Manning. With five new polls yesterday showing Alberta’s New Democrats approaching minority government territory and the “ooga-booga” fear campaign against the NDP beginning in earnest, perhaps it’s time for Albertans who urgently want to rid our province of ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Stragedy and Polls: Chop House version #nlpoli

Public opinion polls are a really useful thing in politics. The Liberals did a poll the weekend before the Liberals and Conservatives voted to slash public representation in the legislature.  They bought into the scheme in largest part because it looked hugely popular. The problem with the poll results is that they didn’t tell the ...

Alberta Diary: Jim Prentice revealed as Hayek ‘disciple’; Heather Forsyth to lead Wildrose rump; Preston Manning says he’s sorry … and more!

A crowd of typical Albertans reacts to the news Danielle Smith and most of her caucus have gone and joined Premier Jim Prentice’s PCs. Below: Mr. Prentice; neoliberal saint Friedrich Hayek; Preston Manning, who is really, really sorry he didn’t counsel a vote or something; interim Wildrose Leader Heather Forsyth; and new Tory MLA Gary ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The October 2014 NTV/MQO Poll Numbers #nlpoli

NTV commissioned NTV to poll opinion about the provincial Conservatives a month after Paul Davis took over as Premier. The party choice numbers are simple enough:  Liberals at 37,  Conservatives at 16,  the NDP at just six percent, and undecided at 40. Leadership numbers Put Dwight Ball of the Liberals slightly ahead of Paul Davis ...