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The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Weight Problems #nlpoli

If you want to know why Forum Research’s poll is out of line with the other polls done on the provincial election, you need look no further than the data tables for the questions. This is why pollsters should give out this information. Lots don’t…. . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Weight Problems #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The October 2014 NTV/MQO Poll Numbers #nlpoli

NTV commissioned NTV to poll opinion about the provincial Conservatives a month after Paul Davis took over as Premier.

The party choice numbers are simple enough:  Liberals at 37,  Conservatives at 16,  the NDP at just six percent, and undecided at 40.

Leadership numbers Put Dwight Ball of the Liberals slightly ahead of Paul Davis . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The October 2014 NTV/MQO Poll Numbers #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Understanding election polls #nlpoli

If you want to get a decent discussion of the Ontario election results and the way polling research tracked the campaign, take a look at a piece from The Star on Sunday.

The piece talks about different ways of conducting a poll – Internet panel,  live calls or automated calls – and compares the results . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Understanding election polls #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Satisfaction Delusion #nlpoli

You’ll hear Conservatives, Corporate Research Associates, and some commentators play up the fact that public satisfaction with the governing Conservatives has gone up in CRA’s most recent quarterly poll.

That’s wonderful but that poll and a couple of bucks will get you a nice hot coffee at Tim’s.  Other than that,  the satisfaction numbers don”t . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Satisfaction Delusion #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

A new poll by Abacus Data for VOCM shows the Liberals under Dwight ball leading the governing Conservatives in every region of Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 500 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, the NL Liberals hold a 15-point lead over the PC Party among committed . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Announce it forward #nlpoli

November is polling month in Newfoundland and Labrador.  Corporate Research Associates goes to the field for its quarterly omnibus and marketing poll.

Historically, the Conservatives have skewed their public communications to the four times a year when CRA was collecting data for public opinion polls that the company will release publicly.

The goal was simple:  . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Announce it forward #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: One poll to rule them all… #nlpoli

The way things go in Newfoundland and Labrador, you can sometimes think that some things only go on here. 

Not so. 

Take a short trip, if you can spare a second,  to Manitoba and the riding of Brandon-Souris.  The editor of the Brandon Sun published an e-mail last week that went from a . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: One poll to rule them all… #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Liberals gain from NDP crisis. Tories no change. #nlpoli

The headline is as dramatic as NTV could make it:

Leadership crisis sends NDP tumbling to third place in NTV/MQO poll

The numbers looked bad for the Dippers:  Grits at 52% of decideds.  Tories at 29% and the NDP in the basement at 18%.

Then you take a closer look and you see something else . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Liberals gain from NDP crisis. Tories no change. #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The NAPE Poll Income #nlpoli

As it turns out, Harris-Decima used household income not individual income for weighting the poll they did for NAPE. Keith Dunne, NAPE’s communications co-ordinator tweeted the correct information on Thursday morning.

Your humble e-scribbler thought it was individual income and therefore concluded – wrongly – that there was a skew in the poll toward higher . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The NAPE Poll Income #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Self Skew-ered #nlpoli

Two thirds of tax filers in Newfoundland and Labrador report incomes of less than $35,000 per year.

The Harris-Decima poll released by the Newfoundland and labrador Association of Public Employees on Wednesday has only 27% of the sample with an income less than $40,000 per year.

Still, the results show that the provincial government either . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Self Skew-ered #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Tories below 30 #nlpoli

By now you’d be living in a cave if you hadn’t heard any news of the latest Corporate Research Associates poll.

The NDP are slightly ahead of the Tories and both are about 10 percentage points ahead of the Liberals.  More people want Lorraine Michael as Premier than want Kathy Dunderdale.  And a majority are . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Tories below 30 #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Secret of Their Distress #nlpoli

Not content with just one round of fascinating public opinion information, NTV decided to unleash a second evening of news about how the public feels about Muskrat Falls. The responses are based on the same panel conducted for NTV by MQO and first rep… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Secret of Their Distress #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Support but lacking sufficient information – the NTV/MQO Poll #nlpoli

The more questions you ask, the more information you get. The more information you have, the more accurate a picture you can draw of anything. In this case, it’s public opinion. On Monday, the provincial government/Nalcor front group released the r… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Support but lacking sufficient information – the NTV/MQO Poll #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The sum of all fears #nlpoli

Kathy Dunderdale says that it is gratifying to have the support of the majority of the people of the province, as recent polls show, according to the Premier.

In another corner, former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner thinks it is great that the Conservatives have the support of six in 10 of the people surveyed.  . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The sum of all fears #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Who wants to play Brutus? #nlpoli

Just as they ate up the Corporate Research Associates’ quarterly poll when the numbers favoured the local Conservatives,  the local media have reported the latest CRA numbers with equal enthusiasm now that the Tory numbers are lousy.

To put it simply, the numbers confirmed the general thrust of two recent polls and the local media . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Who wants to play Brutus? #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Gander at the goosing #nlpoli

Apparently, your humble e-scribbler got on Steve Kent’s nerves.

The Conservative politician and his friends have been bombarding Twitter and Open Line shows since the middle of July will all sorts of their old poll-goosing tactics.  So yours truly has been re-tweeting some of the little comments with an added remark like “Gee, you’d . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Gander at the goosing #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: When Johnny Cab breaks #nlpoli

Last week’s Environics poll caused more than a few people in the province to have a few sleepless nights trying to find a way to prove it was a crock or nothing to sweat.

Those were the Tories.

The NDP wasted no time getting a fund-raising e-mail on the go.

Oddly enough, and as an . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: When Johnny Cab breaks #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Happiness Index #nlpoli

Leave it to labradore to come up with a new way to look at poll results.

He took the results of “satisfaction” questions in polls going back about a decade.  he netted them out, meaning he subtracted the dis-satisfieds from the satisfieds.

What he got is very interesting.

One of the things you . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Happiness Index #nlpoli

Politics and its Discontents: Thomas Mulcair: Wastrel or Canny Investor?

Given the widespread support that the the NDP Leader of the The Official Opposition is enjoying these days, it is hardly surprising to see a public campaign to erode that support getting underway. The latest, of course, is the non-story of Thomas Mulcair remortgaging his house 11 times; as the trained seals the . . . → Read More: Politics and its Discontents: Thomas Mulcair: Wastrel or Canny Investor?