The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Doldrums #nlpoli

MQO conducted a little poll in late January and found the party standings among voters remains where it was in November. No surprise. Nothing has happened in the past few months to move support for either of the three parties in the province up or down.  We are in the lull before the provincial budget ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Brutal #nlpoli

Any Liberals who thought they were out of the political woods got a harsh reminder of the truth on Tuesday. Their leader remains as unpopular as ever. According to Angus Reid, only 20% of respondents to their recent poll thought Premier Dwight Ball was doing a good job. That’s scarcely changed since last spring. 75% ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls remain discouraging for Liberals #nlpoli

Heading into their convention this weekend,  the provincial Liberals have another poll that confirms what all the other polls have said for the past six months or so. For those misled by reports about the MQO poll like CBC’s initial one, see the bit down below. Here’s what you get when you take all the ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Best Choice for Premier #nlpoli

Premier Dwight Ball has the lowest leader choice numbers of any Premier in Newfoundland and Labrador since November 2000. The chart shows the Corporate Research Associates numbers in every quarter for every Premier in that period. To help situate you in the long sequence,  there are a couple of points marked out.  That first peak ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: A clear course to dangerous political shoals #nlpoli

Lots of political activists are looking at the latest CRA quarterly poll.  The Liberals think it is great that they are rebounding so quickly.  Supporters of the other two parties think it is wonderful the three parties are tied and Paul Davis thinks it is great he is doubling Dwight Ball in popularity. And sure, ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Unhappy Gang #nlpoli

The provincial cabinet ended a “retreat” at The Rooms by holding a news conference on Thursday using as a backdrop posters commemorating the slaughter of the Newfoundland regiment at Beaumont Hamel a century ago. Not exactly the kind of image you want to have but at least it fit with a new poll from MQO ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Turning Point #nlpoli

The Great Filibuster of 2016 came to an abrupt end on Thursday after as the two opposition parties decided to pack it in, having gaining precisely nothing of any substance. The filibuster confirmed the NDP are as politically impotent as they have always been.  Meanwhile, the Conservatives lack punch, depth, and direction.  The Liberals left ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: MQO poll shows big Liberal slide #nlpoli

Just for the fun of comparison, here’s the CRA polling results for a year covering the last time the provincial government saw a change of party and the new crowd introduced a killer budget no one expected. The Conservatives dropped from 55 points in November 2003 to 33 points in May of the next year. ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Trump the unpopular… maybe not #nlpoli

Apparently, Donald Trump is the most unpopular American presidential candidate since 1992. The Toronto Star’s American correspondent produced a lovely article on Friday.  It started with the results of a couple of recent comparisons showing how unpopular Donald Trump is in survey research conducted during the current primaries compared to every candidate going back to ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: No change in party support numbers #nlpoli

Despite delivering bad news about the provincial government’s finances since taking office,  the provincial Liberals continue to hold strong public support, according to the most recent poll by Corporate Research Associates. Support for all three parties remains essentially at the same level it was in the fourth quarter of 2015. In the chart below, the ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Polls and Projections #nlpoli

If you want to get a sense of how accurate polls were in the last federal election take a look at the ones we have in public and compare those to the actual result on polling day. In each of the tables below,  we are using the official vote for each party as a share ...

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls must be wrong #nlpoli

Over the past couple of weeks,  some people have been questioning the accuracy of public opinion polls. People have questioned the polls in the federal election, especially after the defeat of two candidates in metro St. John’s a lot of people thought would win.  The two polls released last week show the Liberals with such ...

CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed!  Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends. Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results: And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, ...

CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed!  Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends. Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results: And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, ...

CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos

Here’s the Nanos latest poll: Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the ...

CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos

Here’s the Nanos latest poll: Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the ...

CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well. As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have ...

CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well. As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have ...

CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19. The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it: To ...

CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19. The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it: To ...

Politics and its Discontents: Hope Fades ……

It is becoming difficult to hold on to hope. Despite all we know about the Harper regime, despite all that has been written about its corruption, its abuse of power, its undermining of our democratic institutions, its insidious appeal to the worst in our natures, it seems to all be coming down to an issue ...

CuriosityCat: Liberals edge out NDP as most favoured party for the first time

IPSOS poll released today shows that for the first time in this election, Trudeau’s Liberal Party is now favoured by more voters than those thinking of voting for Mulcair’s NDP: With just four weeks to go before Canadians choose their next prime minister, burgeoning Liberal support in Ontario has pushed party support past the NDP ...

CuriosityCat: Debate confirms that Canada will have a new government on October 20

Here’s the Nanos latest poll, showing support at various times over the past 12 months: Where have the polls been? Check the listing of all 2015 polls at Poll Tracker for this.  Run  your eye down the percentages favouring the Conservatives in these 109 polls – can you spot any that put them over 34%? ...

CuriosityCat: Nanos: Liberals forging ahead in Ontario and competitive with Tories in BC

Here are three diagrams from Nanos polling released at 6am on Friday September 18, that indicate the state of play. First, check out the incredible bunching of the three parties in recent weeks: Then there is the very important and game-winning Ontario standings of the parties – Liberals forging ahead very nicely: Finally, the other ...

CuriosityCat: Trudeau’s massive $125 Billion Infrastructure Plan gains traction among voters

Nick Nanos Just in time for the second debate tonight, Nanos has come out with a poll dealing with voters’s views of what is needed to stimulate the economy. You can link to the Nanos study through the Toronto Star article.    IT IS WORTH READING, AND WORTH SHARING. What is clear is that most ...