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The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls remain discouraging for Liberals #nlpoli

Heading into their convention this weekend,  the provincial Liberals have another poll that confirms what all the other polls have said for the past six months or so.

For those misled by reports about the MQO poll like CBC’s initial one, see the bit down below.

Here’s what you get when you take all the . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls remain discouraging for Liberals #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Best Choice for Premier #nlpoli

Premier Dwight Ball has the lowest leader choice numbers of any Premier in Newfoundland and Labrador since November 2000.The chart shows the Corporate Research Associates numbers in every quarter for every Premier in that period. To help situate you in… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Best Choice for Premier #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: A clear course to dangerous political shoals #nlpoli

Lots of political activists are looking at the latest CRA quarterly poll.  The Liberals think it is great that they are rebounding so quickly.  Supporters of the other two parties think it is wonderful the three parties are tied and Paul Davi… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: A clear course to dangerous political shoals #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Unhappy Gang #nlpoli

The provincial cabinet ended a “retreat” at The Rooms by holding a news conference on Thursday using as a backdrop posters commemorating the slaughter of the Newfoundland regiment at Beaumont Hamel a century ago.Not exactly the kind of image you want t… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Unhappy Gang #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Turning Point #nlpoli

The Great Filibuster of 2016 came to an abrupt end on Thursday after as the two opposition parties decided to pack it in, having gaining precisely nothing of any substance.The filibuster confirmed the NDP are as politically impotent as they have always… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Turning Point #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: MQO poll shows big Liberal slide #nlpoli

Just for the fun of comparison, here’s the CRA polling results for a year covering the last time the provincial government saw a change of party and the new crowd introduced a killer budget no one expected.The Conservatives dropped from 55 points in No… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: MQO poll shows big Liberal slide #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Trump the unpopular… maybe not #nlpoli

Apparently, Donald Trump is the most unpopular American presidential candidate since 1992.The Toronto Star’s American correspondent produced a lovely article on Friday.  It started with the results of a couple of recent comparisons showing how unp… . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Trump the unpopular… maybe not #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: No change in party support numbers #nlpoli

Despite delivering bad news about the provincial government’s finances since taking office,  the provincial Liberals continue to hold strong public support, according to the most recent poll by Corporate Research Associates. Support for all three … . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: No change in party support numbers #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Polls and Projections #nlpoli

If you want to get a sense of how accurate polls were in the last federal election take a look at the ones we have in public and compare those to the actual result on polling day.

In each of the tables below,  we are using the official vote for each party as a share . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Polls and Projections #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls must be wrong #nlpoli

Over the past couple of weeks,  some people have been questioning the accuracy of public opinion polls.

People have questioned the polls in the federal election, especially after the defeat of two candidates in metro St. John’s a lot of people thought would win.  The two polls released last week show the Liberals with such . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls must be wrong #nlpoli

CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed!  Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends. Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results: And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed!  Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends.
Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results:
And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec and BC (my underlining):
The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that, regionally:
  • The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with 52.1 per cent support, and in Ontario with 44 per cent support.
  • The Conservatives lead in the Prairies, with 51.6 per cent support.
  • In British Columbia, there is a tight race between the NDP (34.9 per cent) and the Liberals (34.3 per cent).
  • The NDP lead in Quebec with 32.9 per cent, but support continues to slide.
And here’s the movement of voters in Quebec towards the Liberals (the beginning of a Red Tide in that important province):

Remember to vote in advance polls if you can!  And take a friend along with you, especially a younger voter.

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll

CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos


Here’s the Nanos latest poll:

Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking
  • National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally.
  • Battleground OntarioThere has been a noticeable movement in one of the key battlegrounds in favour of the Liberals over the past two evenings of tracking. Support for the Liberals in battleground Ontario stands at 43.6% while the Conservatives are at 33.8%, the NDP at 18.6% and the Greens at 4.0%.

That surge in Ontario is a large one; seems many voters there have decided that the best choice for managing the economy is Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
And they are moving away from Thomas Read my lips: no deficits Mulcair, and from Stephen No Hope & No Vision Harper.
Add to this the dramatic change in Quebec, where the Orange Surge has turned into the Orange Crash, and we are speedily heading for a Liberal Party majority government on October 19.
That leaves less than 17 days before Stephen Harper resigns as prime minister on October 20, and tootles over to the Governor General to tell him this.
And by April 2017, we will have passed a law to remove the FPTP system of electing our MPs, and replaced it with one that better reflects modern democracies. Before that date, the chances are very high that we will be going to the polls in a referendum, to choose between two alternative methods of electing our MPs: an alternative vote system and a modified proportional representation system, all fleshed out in the commission that the LPC has committed to appoint asap after the election.

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos

CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos

Here’s the Nanos latest poll:

Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos

CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well. As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government


If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well.
As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have 202 MPs versus Harper’s Swan Song Singers 134.
That’s a whopping 68 more MPs than Harper will have, and Harper will be far short of the magical 170 seats he needs for a majority, and to survive as prime minister:
And the Ontario results are good, too:
Plus the BC results:
Spread the word about The Signal!

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government


Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19.
The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it:
To gain a more precise picture of the voting landscape across the country, the Star has teamed with Vox Pop Labs, an independent research organization, to utilize their election forecasting tool, named The Signal.
Faith in pollsters’ findings has been tested in recent years, both home and abroad. After failed efforts to predict the Liberals win in the B.C. election of 2013, the Star asked “Why do pollsters keep getting it wrong?” Across the pond, British outlets pondered the same question only this year, when forecasters’ projections for the general election woefully undervalued support for David Cameron’s Conservative Party. 

So what signal is The Signal sending us about the election?
That we are headed for a change of government. The national results Vox translates into the following seats:

And the forecasted votes are:

The important thing to note is this: The total of Liberal and NDP seats is 199, a huge margin over the projected seats of 137 for Harper’s ‘new’ Conservatives.


This means that the Tories are not going to win a majority (they need 170 seats for that, and are far from that magical number). And, given the outright rejection by both Mulcair and Trudeau of any chance that their parties will prop up a minority Conservative government after the election, Harper will fall from power on October 20 or soon thereafter.
The Liberals, with more seats than the NDP, will then be given the chance by the Governor General to try to form a minority government that will enjoy the confidence of the House.
And within 18 months – by April 2017 – we will have a new electoral system, replacing the current archaic FPTP system.

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19. The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it: . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

Politics and its Discontents: Hope Fades ……

It is becoming difficult to hold on to hope. Despite all we know about the Harper regime, despite all that has been written about its corruption, its abuse of power, its undermining of our democratic institutions, its insidious appeal to the worst in our natures, it seems to all be coming down to an . . . → Read More: Politics and its Discontents: Hope Fades ……

CuriosityCat: Liberals edge out NDP as most favoured party for the first time

IPSOS poll released today shows that for the first time in this election, Trudeau’s Liberal Party is now favoured by more voters than those thinking of voting for Mulcair’s NDP: With just four weeks to go before Canadians choose their next prime minister, burgeoning Liberal support in Ontario has pushed party support past the . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberals edge out NDP as most favoured party for the first time

CuriosityCat: Debate confirms that Canada will have a new government on October 20

Here’s the Nanos latest poll, showing support at various times over the past 12 months:

Where have the polls been? Check the listing of all 2015 polls at Poll Tracker for this.  Run  your eye down the percentages favouring the Conservatives in these 109 polls – can you spot any that put them over . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Debate confirms that Canada will have a new government on October 20

CuriosityCat: Nanos: Liberals forging ahead in Ontario and competitive with Tories in BC

Here are three diagrams from Nanos polling released at 6am on Friday September 18, that indicate the state of play. First, check out the incredible bunching of the three parties in recent weeks: Then there is the very important and game-winning Ontario standings of the parties – Liberals forging ahead very nicely: Finally, the . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Nanos: Liberals forging ahead in Ontario and competitive with Tories in BC

CuriosityCat: Trudeau’s massive $125 Billion Infrastructure Plan gains traction among voters

Nick Nanos

Just in time for the second debate tonight, Nanos has come out with a poll dealing with voters’s views of what is needed to stimulate the economy. You can link to the Nanos study through the Toronto Star article.    IT IS WORTH READING, AND WORTH SHARING. What is clear is that . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Trudeau’s massive $125 Billion Infrastructure Plan gains traction among voters

CuriosityCat: Justin (Just not ready) Trudeau more ready than Harper is, poll says

“I told you I’m not perfect …”

Nanos polls voters daily to find out their views on the election. One question in the latest poll was which of the leaders had the qualities of a good political leader. Guess what? Harper ranked below Mulcair and Trudeau:

Qualities of a good political leader . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin (Just not ready) Trudeau more ready than Harper is, poll says

CuriosityCat: Mulcair & Trudeau both fishing for votes in the same size pools

But Harper is fishing in a far smaller pool, according to Abacusdata:

The whole Abacusdata poll is fascinating and worth studying, and, of course, sharing with friends, colleagues and Tories. This election is one for the record books! Roll on October 19; with some 76% of Canadians wanting a change of government that day, . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Mulcair & Trudeau both fishing for votes in the same size pools