Scott's DiaTribes: Going to be a long 4 years (for Conservative supporters)

You might have caught a while back that interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose promised her party would use a “new tone” now that they were in opposition, implying the nasty personal smear attacks were a thing of the past. Apparently, Conservative MP Candice Bergen didn’t get that memo when she posted this to Twitter last ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Election 42 kicks off. Nanos poll, Trudeau start bolsters LPC. Danielle Takacs shows why I support her.

The 42nd General Election writ was dropped yesterday, causing the 11 week campaign to officially begin. It was interesting watching Harper try to pull off an Orwellian type response to why such a long campaign, claiming that it would somehow save money for the taxpayers – while it’s generally known that this extra long campaign ...

Scott's DiaTribes: A reprieve from Nanos for the Nervous Nellies on Liberal fortunes

There’s been more then a couple newspaper op-eds in the Star and Globe of late worrying about the Liberals and Justin Trudeau losing their mojo and declaring they need to do something to turn around sagging poll fortunes. They seem to have been basing that on their perception of one particular pollster – Ekos – ...

Trashy's World: I might sound like a broken record…

…because over and over I have said that Nanos is the ONLY pollster worth watching. Here is why (emphasis mine): Some key observations on this evening’s Ontario election: Tonight’s election results suggest that even though there was a general perception in the media that Tim Hudak won the debate with Wynne faring poorly, it had ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Wynne & OLP have (polling) momentum going into debate

… or so it would appear from the latest polling. Ekos had a 5 pt OLP lead yesterday, while Abacus had a 2 or 7 pt OLP lead (depending on their likely voter or all voter screen), and today Nanos finally enters the polling arena. The Nanos polling company has been promoting their Power Index ...

Scott's DiaTribes: More encouraging polls for the Liberals

Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes: The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people who voted NDP in the ...

Scott's DiaTribes: 2 sides of the polling analysis coin

Latest Nanos Poll numbers for the federal parties: LPC 36, CPC 30, NDP 25. Nik Nanos commentary on this 2 pt gain for the Liberals over the CPC was that it was to do with the Senate scandal, not Justin’s admission he smoke marijuana: Trudeau hasn’t seen a rise in popularity after focusing on marijuana, ...

Scott's DiaTribes: An early Trudeau effect in polling?

Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains: A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first time since April 2012. The ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Brief thoughts on Bob Rae running or not running

There was a bit of a dustup online (amongst Liberals anyhow) over this story CBC broke yesterday: Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae will be permitted to run in his party’s leadership race and he is expected to enter the race, CBC News has learned…Party President Mike Crawley said a motion will be presented next Wednesday ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Harper and Cons reputation taking a bit of a beating – a year too late.

Two new polls out today – one from Forum Research in the Star shows the NDP ahead of the CPC by 3%.. the other by Nanos at the Globe shows the CPC ahead, but in an MOE dead heat. Pollster are going to get looked at skeptically for a bit after the Alberta election results, ...

Blunt Objects: Forum, Nanos Polling in Ontario Battle it Out

Two polls provincially in Ontario talk about, the first one being Nanos’ Research poll (they did one in November as well that didn’t make the radar), and the next being Forum Research. Big, big differences in these polls. More than what’s normal, anyways. Let’s start with Nanos, which gives the Liberals a good mark (with ...

Blunt Objects: Nanos, Robocalls, and Super Tuesday

Sorry for my lack of posting the past three days – but I haven’t missed much anyways. The big thing I did miss was the recent Nanos Research poll, showing for the second time in a row, the Liberals in second place. The topline numbers (and changes from the last Nanos poll) are as follows: ...

Blunt Objects: Not Another Quirky Nanos Poll….

I’m getting a bit sick of these odd Nanos polls which end up dropping the NDP lower than they should be and the Liberals higher than they should be. The topline numbers are 35.7% Con, 27.6% Lib, 25.2% NDP, 5.6% Bloc, 4.5% Grn. While one could accept the Liberal result because it’s more-or-less within a ...

Blunt Objects: Last Poll of 2011 – 36.5% Con, 28.7% NDP, 25.6% Lib

This is, of course, a lovely Nanos poll which shows the Liberals somewhat dropping from heights we shouldn’t be at in our current state to more-or-less reasonable levels, though as we’ll see, there are still some questions remaining. The topline numbers are as shown, and in terms of seats that would give the Conservatives 140, ...

Blunt Objects: Voodoo Polls Cont’d

Since last post, Abacus Data has come out with a new poll that gives the opposite of what Nik Nanos is showing, with a healthy second place position for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals. Abacus’ numbers are 40-31-18, compared to Nanos’ 35.6-27.3-28.1 the other week that I wrote about here which we ...

Blunt Objects: Nanos = Voodoo Poll?

I have huge respect for Nik Nanos and his firm, but this recent poll is just a bit much, even for a die-hard Liberal: Con – 35.6% (-1.1%)Lib – 28.1% (+4.7%)NDP – 27.3% (-2.7%) So, somehow the Liberals have managed to claw their way back up to second place in the popular vote (though really, ...

Blunt Objects: “Now we can confidently say there is trend in favour of Bob Rae at the current time”

Lol, what? “Nycole Turmel hasn’t really caught the imagination of voters. … She is there minding the shop but her personal numbers are not necessarily moving.”  This means, however, that Mr. Rae is winning second place by “default,” Mr. Nanos added.  Asked to judge the leaders on trust, competence and vision for the country, 30.4 ...

Blunt Objects: Two Polls Give Ontario Grits Smiles

One from Ipsos Reid and one from Nanos Research confirm the trend seen in the Harris-Decima poll that was out only a few days ago, which blew the race in Ontario wide open. First, the Ipsos Reid poll gives the Ontario Liberals the lead with 38%, with the PCs statistically tied at 37%. The NDP ...

Blunt Objects: Nanos Poll Shows More NDP Support, But Little Real Change Overall

In fact, one could argue that Nanos is just correcting from his last poll, which gave the Liberals a small edge as the second-place party. Nevertheless, here are the topline numbers: 39.5% Con, 33.1% NDP, 20.7% Lib, 3.4% Green No real change outside of the margin of error (+/- 3.2%), except for the Bloc, who ...

Scott's DiaTribes: The Ontario election (un)officially starts today (and it’s a horserace)

I’m fairly confident in saying that other then political junkies, not a lot of attention was paid to the Ontario election campaign by potential voters in Ontario. With Labour Day come and gone and a month left until Election Day, that officially changes. Conveniently, we have a new provincial poll out from Nanos Research, conducted ...

Blunt Objects: Tories lead Ont. Libs by just 3.5% – Nanos

Though they’re both down from their last poll thanks to an NDP jump (or, possibly just a resettling, given that Nanos had them lower than other pollsters before) Nanos has the race in Ontario at just 3.5% difference between the two main parties. The numbers are 35.4% PC (-6.7%), 31.9% Lib (-5.7%), 22.8% NDP (+8.8%), ...

Blunt Objects: Yet Another Poll Showing The Same Thing Yet Again

Abacus data is not being known for its originality, that’s for sure (despite their “Not Your Average Pollster” claim). Their current results put the Conservatives at 38%, the NDP at 32%, the Libs at 19%, and the Greens with 6%, while the Bloc sit at 26% in Quebec. There is barely any change outside of ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Another neck and neck poll in Ontario

More unsettling polling news for the Ontario PC’s and their leader Tim Hudak: With less than eight weeks to go before Ontarians head to the polls, the race between the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals has tightened, with the Tories five points ahead among decided voters, a new poll suggests. The Nanos Research poll — ...

Scott's DiaTribes: A rather meaningless poll

I see Nanos is trumpeting a poll that says the Conservatives have fallen back into minority territory, while the Liberals have made big gains. It’s nice to see Conservative support slipping. Unfortunately, the Conservatives have the luxery of not caring about polls for 3 and a half more years. As for the Liberals, I’ll wait ...

Scott's DiaTribes: Nothing new here

A new Nanos poll comes out today that shows the Conservatives slightly increasing their standing from the May 2, 2011 election results. This should be no great surprise; Parliament has barely sat since the results and is about to go in its break for the summer til September, and if you thought the electorate was ...