There’s been more then a couple newspaper op-eds in the Star and Globe of late worrying about the Liberals and Justin Trudeau losing their mojo and declaring they need to do something to turn around sagging poll fortunes. They seem to have been basing that on their perception of one particular pollster – Ekos – who has been the only pollster really who has been doing a weekly look at Party and Party Leader numbers. (I’ll also note they seem to conveniently put that meme away when Ekos shows a Liberal turnaround – that pollster has had the CPC and (Read more…)
…because over and over I have said that Nanos is the ONLY pollster worth watching. Here is why (emphasis mine): Some key observations on this evening’s Ontario election: Tonight’s election results suggest that even though there was a general perception in the media that Tim Hudak won the debate with Wynne faring poorly, it had […]
… or so it would appear from the latest polling. Ekos had a 5 pt OLP lead yesterday, while Abacus had a 2 or 7 pt OLP lead (depending on their likely voter or all voter screen), and today Nanos finally enters the polling arena. The Nanos polling company has been promoting their Power Index stuff for awhile, so it takes some time to scroll down and find the actual poll results. but the OLP leads by 6.5% (and at 37.7%) when you do eventually find it.
What does that mean for tonight’s debate? It’s the last chance (Read more…)
Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes:
The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people who voted NDP in the past federal election would vote Liberal if an election were held today. In fact, 45 per cent of NDP voters in total would switch their votes to another party. Twenty-five per cent of Conservative voters would switch their vote – 17 per cent of them (Read more…)
Latest Nanos Poll numbers for the federal parties: LPC 36, CPC 30, NDP 25.
Nik Nanos commentary on this 2 pt gain for the Liberals over the CPC was that it was to do with the Senate scandal, not Justin’s admission he smoke marijuana:
Trudeau hasn’t seen a rise in popularity after focusing on marijuana, Nanos added. The Liberal leader was in the news recently for admitting he smoked marijuana a few years ago, after he was elected as an MP. The Liberal party is pushing for the legalization of marijuana. Trudeau’s pot admission and policy is “statistical puffery” because (Read more…)
Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains:
A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first time since April 2012. The new poll shows support for the Conservatives remains steady at 33.3 per cent, with the Liberals at 30.1 per cent, the NDP at 27.9 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 4.7 per cent, and the Green Party at 2.9 per
There was a bit of a dustup online (amongst Liberals anyhow) over this story CBC broke yesterday:
Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae will be permitted to run in his party’s leadership race and he is expected to enter the race, CBC News has learned…Party President Mike Crawley said a motion will be presented next Wednesday “to clarify how Rae could put himself forward as a candidate.”
The main debate raging seems to be over Bob breaking his word last year he would not put himself forward as a candidate for the permanent leader position (and you can find that
Two new polls out today – one from Forum Research in the Star shows the NDP ahead of the CPC by 3%.. the other by Nanos at the Globe shows the CPC ahead, but in an MOE dead heat.
Pollster are going to get looked at skeptically for a bit after the Alberta election results, but it’s not a shock to see the CPC drop after the Robo-Con vot suppression issue (still ongoing), the F35 scandal, and other various CPC misdeeds. My two thoughts are: it’s too bad the public didn’t realize this a year ago before voting for a
Two polls provincially in Ontario talk about, the first one being Nanos’ Research poll (they did one in November as well that didn’t make the radar), and the next being Forum Research. Big, big differences in these polls. More than what’s normal, anyways.
Let’s start with Nanos, which gives the Liberals a good mark (with changes from their last poll):
Liberal: 39.9% (+0.8) PC: 30.0% (-4.5) NDP: 24.7% (+3.1) Green: 4.3% (+0.8)
Pretty simple, and an easy Liberal majority which I’ll show below, side-by-side with Forum’s poll, which is up next. PC: . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Forum, Nanos Polling in Ontario Battle it Out
Sorry for my lack of posting the past three days – but I haven’t missed much anyways.
The big thing I did miss was the recent Nanos Research poll, showing for the second time in a row, the Liberals in second place. The topline numbers (and changes from the last Nanos poll) are as follows:
Cons: 35.7% (=) Liberal: 29.5% (+1.9) NDP: 25.0% (-0.2) Bloc: 4.9% (-0.7) Green: 3.4% (-1.1) Other: 1.5% (+0.1)
The numbers are pretty standard for what most polls show right now, except
. . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Nanos, Robocalls, and Super Tuesday
I’m getting a bit sick of these odd Nanos polls which end up dropping the NDP lower than they should be and the Liberals higher than they should be.
The topline numbers are 35.7% Con, 27.6% Lib, 25.2% NDP, 5.6% Bloc, 4.5% Grn. While one could accept the Liberal result because it’s more-or-less within a standard MOE’s breadth of some other pollsters who peg the Liberals around 25%. However, no other recent pollster shows the NDP below 28% – yet once again, Nik Nanos and co. have pegged them there.
Now granted, the topline changes
. . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Not Another Quirky Nanos Poll….
This is, of course, a lovely Nanos poll which shows the Liberals somewhat dropping from heights we shouldn’t be at in our current state to more-or-less reasonable levels, though as we’ll see, there are still some questions remaining.
The topline numbers are as shown, and in terms of seats that would give the Conservatives 140, the NDP 92, the Liberals 72, the Bloc 3, and Lizzy May.
Key things here are, once again, Ontario and Quebec, with BC playing a side role here.
Unlike last time, Ontario’s numbers look a lot less weird. Nanos has the Cons at 34.5%
. . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Last Poll of 2011 – 36.5% Con, 28.7% NDP, 25.6% Lib
Since last post, Abacus Data has come out with a new poll that gives the opposite of what Nik Nanos is showing, with a healthy second place position for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals.
Abacus’ numbers are 40-31-18, compared to Nanos’ 35.6-27.3-28.1 the other week that I wrote about here which we couldn’t really take at face value, unfortunately. The key numbers – Ontario and Quebec – show different stories as well.
In Ontario, Abacus found 43% would vote Conservative, compared to 28% NDP and 26% Liberal. Last week’s Nanos has those numbers
. . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Voodoo Polls Cont’d
I have huge respect for Nik Nanos and his firm, but this recent poll is just a bit much, even for a die-hard Liberal:
Con – 35.6% (-1.1%)Lib – 28.1% (+4.7%)NDP – 27.3% (-2.7%) So, somehow the Liberals have managed to claw their way back up to second place in the popular vote (though really, its within the margin of error between us and the Dippers), coming in first in Ontario (38.8% to the Con’s 37.2%), and coming into Dion-level territory in Quebec (23.6% vs. 37.7%
. . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Nanos = Voodoo Poll?
Lol, what?“Nycole Turmel hasn’t really caught the imagination of voters. … She is there minding the shop but her personal numbers are not necessarily moving.” This means, however, that Mr. Rae is winning second place by “default,” Mr. … . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: “Now we can confidently say there is trend in favour of Bob Rae at the current time”
One from Ipsos Reid and one from Nanos Research confirm the trend seen in the Harris-Decima poll that was out only a few days ago, which blew the race in Ontario wide open.First, the Ipsos Reid poll gives the Ontario Liberals the lead with 38%, with th… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Two Polls Give Ontario Grits Smiles
In fact, one could argue that Nanos is just correcting from his last poll, which gave the Liberals a small edge as the second-place party.Nevertheless, here are the topline numbers: 39.5% Con, 33.1% NDP, 20.7% Lib, 3.4% GreenNo real change outside of t… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Nanos Poll Shows More NDP Support, But Little Real Change Overall
I’m fairly confident in saying that other then political junkies, not a lot of attention was paid to the Ontario election campaign by potential voters in Ontario. With Labour Day come and gone and a month left until Election Day, that officially changes.
Conveniently, we have a new provincial poll out from Nanos Research, conducted on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail, showing a tighter race. When rounded, it’s basically PC’s 35, Liberals 32, and NDP 23. Comparing to the previous Nanos poll, it appears that voters aren’t too enthralled yet. The PC’s and Liberals are both down between 5-7%, while the NDP made some gains. [...] . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: The Ontario election (un)officially starts today (and it’s a horserace)
Though they’re both down from their last poll thanks to an NDP jump (or, possibly just a resettling, given that Nanos had them lower than other pollsters before) Nanos has the race in Ontario at just 3.5% difference between the two main parties.The num… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Tories lead Ont. Libs by just 3.5% – Nanos
Abacus data is not being known for its originality, that’s for sure (despite their “Not Your Average Pollster” claim).Their current results put the Conservatives at 38%, the NDP at 32%, the Libs at 19%, and the Greens with 6%, while the Bloc sit at 26%… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Yet Another Poll Showing The Same Thing Yet Again
More unsettling polling news for the Ontario PC’s and their leader Tim Hudak:
With less than eight weeks to go before Ontarians head to the polls, the race between the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals has tightened, with the Tories five points ahead among decided voters, a new poll suggests. The Nanos Research poll — conducted between August 10 and August 13 for CTV, The Globe and Mail and CP24 — found the Liberals are on an upswing, closing the gap slightly with the Tories. According to the poll, support sits at 42.1 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, 37.6 per cent for the Liberals, 16.2 per cent for [...] . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Another neck and neck poll in Ontario
I see Nanos is trumpeting a poll that says the Conservatives have fallen back into minority territory, while the Liberals have made big gains. It’s nice to see Conservative support slipping. Unfortunately, the Conservatives have the luxery of not… . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: A rather meaningless poll
A new Nanos poll comes out today that shows the Conservatives slightly increasing their standing from the May 2, 2011 election results. This should be no great surprise; Parliament has barely sat since the results and is about to go in its break for the summer til September, and if you thought the electorate was disengaged before the last election, they’re hardly going to be now with summer approaching. What was done during this brief Parliament sitting was a threatened back to work legislation of Air Canada employees and a bill in the making to legislate Canada Post striking workers back to work. I would gander both actions or [...] . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Nothing new here
Nanos has a new poll out with very slight changes for all the parties, except it shows the Bloc literally collapsing before our eyes. Topline numbers are 39.7% Con, 29.9% NDP, 21.5% Lib, 4.8% Green, and 2.7% Bloc. Using 2Close2Call’s projection system… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Nanos Poll – End of the Bloc