In a stunning upset of “Dewey Defeats Truman” proportions, the BC Liberals have defied all the polls save one and returned to power with a fourth straight majority government. No doubt, there will be much soul searching and wound licking over the coming weeks. I believe that five lessons — real, imagined, and not-quite-clear — will be gleaned from the experience.
1. Proceed with caution when predicting the future.
In last year’s US Presidential election, statistician Nate Silver made fools out of all those television pundits who privileged “gut feeling” over quantitative analysis. But sometimes even the data geeks get (Read more…)
Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion in BC
I think Gordon Gibson’s take in the Globe & Mail on the vote-shifting caused by the position-shifting of Dix in the last week of the campaign is the most plausible explanation of why the polls were so different from the actual results:
The NDP looked way ahead before voters went to the polls in British Columbia. Then it all changed. Why? One word: “Pipelines.” Or more precisely, two: “Kinder Morgan.”
Until two weeks ago it was the election of the NDP’s Adrian Dix to lose.
Then he got greedy. Worried (Read more…)
This morning I saw a few minutes of a CBC Newsworld political panel and again concluded that Canada must abolish its senate immediately. Abolish it now! There is no time for messing about.
The dishonourable, fraud-committing senate serves no legitimate purpose in this day and age, and it’s debatable whether it ever did. The unelected, patronage-appointed, archaic institution is an insult to democracy; costs us an obscene amount of tax money; and provides a bad example to young Canadians that crime does pay. It is nothing but a den of Liberal and Conservative crooks and liars living high on the (Read more…)
Received an email this morning; Liberal leader Justin Trudeau “has a message for me.” And a few million other people, but whatevs. Here it is:
Much discussion in the online world about the clothing tastes of casual Justin. The suit and tie pundit crowd seem confused or annoyed. I think it’s fine, but neither of us are the target audience. The Canadians that probably didn’t wear a suit and tie while enjoying 20 degree summer weather last weekend are, and I’ll let them draw their own conclusions.
If there’s anything that annoys me about this video, its that whoever (Read more…)
I just took a gander at the Elections Canada databases to see the current state of the Green Party EDA`s. Like them or not, the Green Party remains a factor, and their 2015 campaign will play a role in determining the outcome of the 2015 election. I have a couple of general observations to make, and I have to say that the Green Party has some very impressive strengths, and some very telling weaknesses. It will sound like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth, but I will demonstrate why I expect that the GPC will have (Read more…)
In the very few weeks since Justin Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, there have been some pretty big things going on. I guess the most obvious, and I mean IN YOUR FACE obvious is the launch millions of dollars worth of ‘attack ads’ by the Conservatives, and the launch of a million dollar ‘anti-attack’ ad by the Trudeau Liberals. We have all been treated to a phenomena that we have seen time and again. scads of
It’s Off To Work We Go
instant communications ‘experts’ opine on whether one ad or another is ‘working’, and (Read more…)
Canada’s Conservative Party abandoned Premier Alison Redford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta during Alberta’s last provincial election – they chose instead to support Alberta’s far-right Wildrose Alliance Party.
Now, Justin Trudeau seeks to build bridges with Albertans and their government; all the while pushing for sustainable and environmentally-sound development for Canada’s oil industry.
Said it before, and I’ll say it again – Tories underestimate Trudeau at their own peril.
National Post, Trudeau praises Redford for Keystone XL efforts, slams Harper for not pushing ‘critical’ project:
Federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has praised Alberta Premier Alison Redford for (Read more…)
It’s April 27, 2013: a few days after my blog’s first anniversary, the weekend of Rebelfest in Hamilton, and a few days before International Workers’ Day (aka Mayday, aka the real Labour Day). Additionally, April 28 is International Day of Mourning for workers who were killed or injured on the job. A lot has happened since my last post, and here are just a few tidbits.
● Rita MacNeil – singer, political activist and sex abuse survivor – died on April 16 at the age of 68. The down-to-earth artist was always on the (Read more…)
Attack ads, counter attack ads. Lots of earned media so far, and with some actual media buys happening, I am sure there is going to be some movement in opinion polls, and very early voting intentions, but seriously, what does it mean 2 years out from the next general election? Lets take stock of what the practical results of the first two weeks of Trudeau’s leadership are. The most obvious practical outcome is the incredible success of the Supporter category of membership in the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party raised a nifty half a million dollars in the first 7 (Read more…)
Best ad Liberals have produced in a VERY long time.
As mentioned earlier, the Liberal Party of Canada this morning released two new ads featuring Justin Trudeau that will be running on television and online, one in English and one in French (you can donate here to help keep them on the air). Both are similar in tone, although only the English one responds directly to the personally negative Conservative ad campaign. We needed to respond Content aside, I’m pleased that we’ve responded at all. And we had to, for several reasons. For one, Liberals have been asked several times in recent years to donate in order (Read more…) respond to Conservative attack ads. When ads were ran against Bob Rae, the party asked for money for a response; Liberals donated, the party never responded. At the time I outlined why a response would be problematic, but those Liberals that donated certainly expected one. We also voted at the . . . → Read More: A BCer in Toronto: Thoughts on the new Liberal/Justin Trudeau ads
OK, so I just got an emailed ‘ask’ to help pay for airing this 30 second spot. I am not an advertising expert, so I do not know how effective it will be. In essence, Justin tells us he is a Teacher and proud of it, Canadians deserve better than attack ads, and he is going to work hard. The budget so far is for $500,000 but the objecteive is to raise another $500,000 for a total buy of $1,000,000.
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The Liberals and Justin Trudeau now have ads of their own, and they stand in stark contrast to the negative Conservative personal attack ads of last week. Take a look:
And a French ad that’s a little different visually:
Have to run; I’ll have some thoughts later.
In the world of politics the fight can really only stay as clean as your dirtiest player and the Conservative Party of Canada could not be a dirtier player. They are the textbook example of Karl Rove’s warped, cynical play-book.
The latest attack ads against Justin Trudeau demonstrate how low they are willing to go, quoting him completely out of context making him appear to claim Quebec is superior to the rest of Canada. When in fact he is speaking of the views of his late father. The problem is most Canadians will never know the truth as they are casual (Read more…)
I am in complete and utter shock and sadness at the news that Justin Trudeau will become the third Liberal Party leader in a row defined by the formidable Reform-Conservative attack ad machine. This means that Stephen Harper has just won the 2015 election campaign.
I can not believe that this decision could be taken. Those who do not learn from their mistakes are bound to repeat them and we all have a front row seat to the obliteration of another leader’s brand. This will be very painful indeed.
Here’s a still from the first Harper attack ad against Justin Trudeau, which was released about 12 hours after Justin became Liberal leader.
It’s a weird ad. I thought with all their money the Conservatives could come up with something more effective. They’re obviously trying to ridicule him, but… The ad shows Justin with a goofy mustache – which he grew for charity as part of Movember. It shows Justin standing on stage slowly removing his outer shirt (he’s wearing an undershirt) – which he did for another charity. It shows him saying that Quebec is the best – obviously . . . → Read More: Yappa Ding Ding: En garde!
With the release today of the NDP’s fiscal plan in advance of the May 14 election here in British Columbia, we are now finally able to assess where the major parties — Liberals, New Democrats, Greens, and Conservatives — stand on the province’s carbon tax. In my opinion, there are four primary questions by which their respective carbon tax proposals are to be judged:
Will the tax be raised? Will the tax base be expanded? Will the tax remain revenue neutral? How will equity concerns be addressed?
This is not to say that these four criteria are the only relevant (Read more…)
“The biggest distinction between a Liberal Party led by me and Stephen’s Harper’s Conservatives is one of tone …” – Justin Trudeau (Toronto Star print edition, April 6, 2013)
Exactly. Many of us have been saying for years that the main difference between the pro-corporate, pro-globalization Liberals and the pro-corporate, pro-globalization Conservatives is style, not substance. Liberals campaign like socialists but govern
. . . → Read More: The Ranting Canadian: “The biggest distinction between a Liberal Party led by me and Stephen’s Harper’s…
Although the writ for the upcoming BC election won’t be dropped for another two weeks (yes, this campaign has been going on forever), I had the pleasure yesterday of attending an all-candidates meeting on climate change organized by Gen Why Media.
The forum seemed geared primarily towards the young ’uns, despite being billed by organizers as part of their ongoing “Bring Your Boomers” intergenerational dialogue series. A few older voices in the audience could be heard complaining about the darkness of the venue and the frenetic Twittercentrism of the onstage decorations. And though I am ostensibly still part of the (Read more…)
I’ll be participating in the Liberal Party Leadership National Showcase this Saturday as “accredited media”. Take that, MSM.
You can follow my coverage here, on Twitter (@progright), and on Google+.
I’d like to thank the Liberal Party of Canada for accrediting bloggers – there are a few of us attending. I was critical of the party’s position on bloggers during the 2012 Convention, so I’m delighted by this change in position. More exposure by this type of media must be embraced.
Slice it and Segment it for best results!
I just read an excellent article on how activists, and issue advocates in Canada are adopting new techniques and models to drive their message home to Government. It seems I am not alone in my assessment that a direct one-on-one interaction with individuals presents the opportunity to more effectively engage small segments of the electorate to more readily mobilise them for political action.
I have written a number of posts recently about my belief that the Liberal Party absolutely MUST get into the game of big data management if they are to
. . . → Read More: Not an Official Green Party Canada Site: Issues based Segmenting and Targeting the new activism
I’ve been firmly on the record against merger, or a non-aggression pact (deceptively called cooperation — who doesn’t like cooperation?) for at least a year or two now.
I’ve outlined my reasons at length, from the fact that most statistical evidence indicates it just won’t work (you’ll lose centre-right Liberals to Harper and strengthen his vote count) to my belief that not having Liberals on the ballot in half the country would be kind of bad for those who think our party should still exist. There’s also the somewhat awkward reality that there’s no one to cooperate with.
I don’t want
. . . → Read More: A BCer in Toronto: Briefly, on "cooperation"
The conventional wisdom has it that Justin Trudeau has the leadership of the Liberals all but in the bag. Well, all I can say is that the conventional wisdom is ill-informed, and I believe that the contest is a whole lot closer than it appears.
First off, Joyce Murray has a lot more supporters than was publicly suspected. According to her campaign, they actually managed to register 45,000 supporters through their third-party recruiting drive. Yes, I said register to vote, not sign up as supporters. As I posted some weeks ago, Joyce Murray was pretty smart when she targeted
. . . → Read More: Not an Official Green Party Canada Site: Justin over Joyce, by a nose: But how they are BOTH winners.
Every time I hear, or read about ‘uniting the left’, or ‘uniting progressives’ to get rid of the Conservatives, it makes me wince. And every time I read some journalist – pundit pontificating on the certainty of perpetual Conservative governments unless the LEFT unites, I get even more irritated. I mean, am I the only person in Canada who has noticed that the left – right spectrum has very little to do with electoral outcomes in a Canada? So here is the conventional wisdom. The Canadian Political spectrum is made up of the NDP on the left, the Liberal Party
. . . → Read More: Not an Official Green Party Canada Site: Uniting Progressives: A meaningless Mantra for the Liberals.
According to every poll and every projection by every firm and every commentator, Christy Clark and her Liberal Party are about to be handed an unbalanced ass-whooping of the sort we British Columbians seem to enjoy dishing out to governing parties once every decade or so. Naturally, when this happens, I will be singing and dancing as much as the next person. But allow me to qualify my unencumbered joy thusly:
The impending Liberal defeat is not Christy Clark’s fault.
Well, not primarily. She certainly hasn’t helped. “Ethnicgate” does not reflect well on the Clark government, but this present ordeal (Read more…)