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Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – March 18, 2012

Since last week, we’ve seen the NDP’s leadership campaign win plenty more attention in the media. But has any of the news managed to change the positioning of the candidates?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Well, we’ve certainly seen Thomas Mulcair under the microscope more than he’s ever been. But while the week gave rise to a couple of points which may not help his cause (with controversy over his positions on marijuana decriminalization and Syria among the points which may lose him later-ballot support), he still looks likely to hold a significant first-ballot lead over the next tier of

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – March 18, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – March 11, 2012

Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen what look to be a couple of noteworthy efforts among the NDP’s leadership candidates to reach out to other campaigns’ supporters in order to win over the down-ballot support that will likely decide the outcome of the campaign. So how have those efforts changed my rankings as to who’s most likely to emerge as the winner?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Not much at the top, as Mulcair still looks like at least an even-odds candidate to win. He didn’t offer a great deal in response to a series of direct questions as

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – March 11, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – March 4, 2012

With the voting window open and the second-last debate having just finished, we’re into the home stretch of the NDP’s leadership campaign. I’ve posted on the outcomes I’d like to see – but since that’s a separate question entirely from how I think matters actually will play out, let’s see if anything has changed since last week in my weekly ranking process.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Once again Mulcair ranks well ahead of the second tier of candidates following another week packed with endorsements and another strong debate performance. Unfortunately nobody seriously questioned what his plans are in structuring the

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – March 4, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 26, 2012

Today’s debate didn’t do much to resolve the continued uncertainty surrounding the NDP’s leadership campaign, particularly among the candidates I’ve had ranked between 2nd and 5th for the bulk of the race. But let’s see if the last week has changed any of the rankings…

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Mulcair still ranks well ahead of the pack, and indeed is largely rising above the most contentious exchanges as the candidates below jockey for position. But his new “strong, structured opposition” catchphrase rather cries out for explanation – and I wouldn’t be surprised if plenty of NDP members have serious concerns

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 26, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 12, 2012

It’s undoubtedly been an eventful seven days in the NDP’s leadership campaign – and one of the most important weeks of the race is just around the corner as the membership deadline approaches. But does any of the activity change this week’s rankings?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Certainly not at the top. And in fact Mulcair may be breathing a sign of relief after today: a contentious discussion about the Middle East might have been one of the most obvious sources of possible trouble for him, but nothing of the sort materialized in the foreign policy debate.

2. Peggy Nash

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 12, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 5, 2012

Since it’s been a little while, I’ll offer another of my periodic caveats that these rankings are intended to reflect my perception as to how likely a particular candidate is to win the NDP’s leadership rather than my own preferences. So has anything changed on that front since last week?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Well, the top of the rankings hasn’t changed at all as long as I’ve been putting together these rankings. And with Mulcair starting to build a national labour base to rival that of any other contender, it may take either a serious scandal shockingly disappointing Quebec

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – February 5, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 29, 2012

With one exception, the NDP’s Halifax leadership debate looks largely to have largely reinforced the previous positions of its leadership candidates. But there could be plenty more changes in store if a few developments from the debate hold up in the weeks to come.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

As the front-runner, Mulcair naturally took the most fire in the question-period format (which incidentally made for a highly worthwhile addition to the debate). And Mulcair’s response to Paul Dewar – featuring both righteous indignation and substance without going over the top – offered a nice hint as to what we can

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 29, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 22, 2012

For all that’s happened over the past week, the ultimate result has been largely to confirm the relative placement that the NDP’s leadership candidates have faced all along. And in cutting through the increasing volume of activity, this week’s rankings look to be drifting back toward the first set of candidate perceptions from November – with the exception of one key development that seems to have been confirmed over the last week.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Lest there be any doubt, an outburst of media kvetching over Mulcair’s dual citizenship doesn’t figure to affect his standing within the leadership race

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 22, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 15, 2012

At the outset of this week’s rankings, I’ll offer a reminder that the below is intended to reflect my analysis as to how likely any given candidate is to win the NDP’s leadership race, rather than my own personal ballot or any other endorsement of one candidate over another. And yes, the reasons for that disclaimer will soon become apparent.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

To the extent Mulcair was once seen as pulling away from the field, that impression looks to have evaporated. But relatively little news is good news for a favourite – and Mulcair has at worst lived

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 15, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 8, 2012

There isn’t anything new in the candidate rankings for this week, as the latest developments have generally left the NDP’s leadership contenders in substantially the same position they’ve occupied for some time. But there may be some major changes in the works over the next little while – so let’s look at how those might come to pass.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

While Mulcair’s western swing this week was by all accounts a productive one, it also featured only a couple of relatively small endorsements for a candidate who looms as a favourite at this stage of the race. And

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – January 8, 2012

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 26, 2011

Anybody expecting the holidays to make for a quiet spell in the NDP’s leadership race was in for a surprise, as the last week has seen the first candidate departure along with a boost in the number of pundits’ rankings and candidate profiles. But will the result be much change in who has the best chance of emerging as the NDP’s leader?

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Not at the top, that’s for sure. I don’t buy the Mulcair camp’s spin that he was ever an underdog, but it seems that he’s easily stayed at the top of the field from

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 26, 2011

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 18, 2011

We now have at least a bit of pollster data to compare to Skinny Dipper’s online poll on the relative positions of the NDP’s leadership candidates. But Forum Research’s results look to largely match the previous candidate positioning – which combines with relatively little news from the candidates’ travels to make for another very quiet week in the candidate rankings.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Naturally Forum’s results are more positive for Mulcair than for any other candidate. But it’s worth sounding somewhat of a cautionary note since they’re based on a poll of NDP voters rather than members – and

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 18, 2011

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 10, 2011

While there was plenty to talk about following the NDP’s first leadership debate, the effect of such an early event on the candidates’ long-term prospects was bound to be limited. And so the most-discussed event of the campaign so far hasn’t led to much change from last week’s rankings.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

Of course, part of the reason why not much has changed is that the front-runners mostly lived up to their billing. And Mulcair in particular strengthened his position this week with both a strong debate performance and a key policy launch. Which means that while there’s still

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 10, 2011

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 4, 2011

Not a lot has changed since last week’s rankings. But with the first NDP leadership debate looming this afternoon, let’s quickly take stock of where the candidates stand – including with a quick take on what they’ll each need to accomplish this afternoon.

1. Thomas Mulcair (1)

There isn’t much doubt about Mulcair’s command of the issues, and the economy should be a particularly strong suit given his extensive work as a national spokesperson and liaison for the NDP. So Mulcair’s main goal for today figures to be to stay above the fray: he’ll surely be in the sights

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – December 4, 2011

Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – November 26, 2011

Last weekend, I mentioned my intention to introduce NDP leadership rankings. Before getting to the rankings themselves, though, let’s make clear exactly what the below is intended to reflect.

First, unlike Ian Capstick’s survey, I’m not making any effort yet to determine who figures to do the best on becoming leader, only to sort out who has the best chance of winning the opportunity. (I’ll wait until much later to make an endorsement to try to answer the “who’s best?” question.)

Second, while the rankings are intended to reflect the best chances of winning the March 25

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Leadership 2012 Candidate Rankings – November 26, 2011