Over the past year, there have been thousands of articles written about Justin Trudeau, his father, and his leadership campaign. Since it hasn’t been a big secret he was going to come out on top, we’ve also seen thousands of articles about what his win means.
So rather than rehash what has already been written, allow me to provide the cold hard numbers behind his victory. NUMBER OF VOTES: 104,552
That’s more than voted in the most recent NDP (65,108) or Conservative (97,397) leadership races – indeed, it might very well be the most Canadians to ever vote directly for
. . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Trudeau’s Win by the Numbers
Unlike past leadership contests where I’ve been fighting on the front lines for my candidate, I’ve watched the federal race largely as a spectator. Being away from a campaign offers a different vantage point, and I’ve enjoyed blogging my opinions candidly, as I slowly made up my mind who to support.
With voting now open (this is your cue hackers!), it’s time to take stock of the race…or “jog”, or “victory march”, or whatever you want to call it.
I wouldn’t consider this post an endorsement – as Allan Rock, Sheila Copps, John Manley, Gerard Kennedy (twice), and Dominic
. . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: How I’m Voting
There isn’t a lot of suspense surrounding Sunday’s Liberal leadership vote. Pick the metric of your choice – fundraising, endorsements, hair volume – and Trudeau leads his nearest challenger by at least a 4:1 ratio. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in Twitter support, but Justin has 10 times more followers than the rest of the field combined.
The following table provides an overview of what little quantitative data we have on the race and offers a Power Rank, based on how these variables have translated to votes in past contests (methodology here).
Fundraising Endorsement Media Facebook Twitter . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Final Power Rankings
It doesn’t compare to the high stakes floor crossings and backroom deals that define delegated conventions, but yesterday’s Liberal Showcase still offered the speeches, signs, buttons, and hospitality suites politicos have come to expect at these gatherings. Justin Trudeau had cowbells. Martin Cauchon made swag history, handing out Liberal-red socks. Joyce Murray brought in a west coast hippie fusion marimba band.
And just like “real” leadership conventions, the program started with a tribute to the outgoing leader featuring, among other things, the clip of Bob Rae skinny dipping with Rick Mercer. That left the candidates with the unenviable task of
. . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Showcase Showdown
Karen McCrimmon recognizes the odds she’s facing
When I released my first set of LPC Power Rankings in early February, I was a bit surprised to see Justin Trudeau up at 66%. These rankings aren’t intended to be a first ballot predictor, but they came pretty close to the mark in the NDP contest and it was still a bit of shock to see Trudeau 54 points above his nearest competitor. But wouldn’t you know it, Marc Garneau’s mystery poll was essentially spot on my numbers. So maybe there’s something to this.
And if there is, we are heading to
. . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Updated Power Rankings Show Trudeau in Control
In keeping with my goal of policy centric coverage of the Leadership contest, this post contains largely a list of various policies mentioned by the respective Candidates at the Toronto Liberal Leadership Debate. The ability to articulate a clear policy vision for Canada, not just utter platitudes and generalities, is paramount to the Liberals being able to find electoral success. As such, I ignored appeals to values or general principles, and also ignored criticism of Harper. This is a pretty exhaustive list of the first hour of the debate which contained the excellent one on one debate format . . . → Read More: Progressive Proselytizing: Specific policies mentioned in the Toronto Liberal Leadership Debate
The moderator failed to ask the tough questions, such as “Mr. Bertschi, why on earth are you wearing that scarf?“
My mind has been on the Ontario Liberal leadership race the past few months, so I’ll admit to not having paid close attention to the federal contest. Not wanting to feel left out the next time a lively debate over Karen McCrimmon’s proposals on income tax reform breaks out at a dinner party, I decided to tie myself down and watch the second Liberal Leadership Debate this weekend.
Of course “debate” is a charitable way to describe what
. . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Liberals One-on-One
As following the recent NDP and GOP leadership races so poignantly demonstrated, leadership debates are best at demonstrating the electibility of candidates. Basic values come through as well, but these are largely shared in a party, and specific policies are usually just tossed in more as rhetorical tools to act substantive to a question than they are debates about policy. There are many criticisms one can raise about the vacuous and superficial nature of debates, but they are genuinely good at demonstrating the electability of candidates. Especially for the Liberal party which has suffered from rather unelectable leaders and faces an existential election in (Read more…)
Who will cross the finish line first?
While a Justin Trudeau cakewalk in the Liberal leadership race doesn’t seem quite as inevitable as it did two weeks ago, most pundits still regard his win as inevitable. However, while discussing the relative strengths of the Coyne and Takach campaigns over drinks last week, it occurred to me there’s a fair amount of intrigue as you move down the ballot. Kind of like betting whether the Marxist-Leninists can beat the Animal Alliance in your riding.
With that in mind, I present the ultimate test for policos – the Calgary Grit Liberal Leadership
. . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Liberal Leadership Pool
Last week, Martha Hall Findlay and Karen McCrimmon declared their candidacies for the Liberal leadership race. This week, George Takach has taken the plunge. I’ve posted one blog interview with David Merner, and will have others with David Bertschi and Alex Burton next week. Deborah Coyne, meanwhile, has already released more fresh ideas than we’ve seen from Stephen Harper during his entire tenure as Prime Minister. These are seven very different candidates with seven very different messages, but the one … → . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Canada’s Greatest Losers