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Accidental Deliberations: On anticipated departures

With Canada’s federal election still a month and a half away, it’s obviously too early to be concluding that it will end the career of any of our current political leaders. (And we should keep that in mind given that far too much commentary treats the question of whether leaders will hold onto their jobs . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On anticipated departures

Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the ol… . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties were virtually tied. The . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

Toronto Lawyer | Omar Ha-Redeye, J.D. » Politics: Predicting Politics in 2014

Omar Ha-Redeye shared a panel on Newstalk 1010 with John Wright of Ipsos Reid and Cal Bricker of Waste Management to discuss the future of federal, provincial and municipal politics.

The show will be aired several times over the holidays.

 

 

. . . → Read More: Toronto Lawyer | Omar Ha-Redeye, J.D. » Politics: Predicting Politics in 2014

Scott's DiaTribes: Another poll to take at face value

Ipsos-Reid was the only pollster last month that showed the three federal parties in a three way tie and the NDP at the 30% mark. This of course was immediately seized upon by my NDP colleagues – I can’t say I blame them really; though the fact they ignored every other pollster that didn’t show . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Another poll to take at face value

Driving The Porcelain Bus: Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.
Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.
The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.
In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.
It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can’t see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 
One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven’t had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-scandal-hasnt-hampered-tories-support-poll-says/article15174731/
   “The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls.”
– and –
   “He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”

News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6302
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points).  . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Driving The Porcelain Bus: Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers. Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28 NDP      27%            31%   up 4% Lib         33%            31%  down 2% Con       31%            30%   down . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Scott's DiaTribes: Senate reform still desired over Senate abolition or status quo

Despite the Senate scandal deepening, it appears that for now, Canadians still prefer reforming the Senate over abolishing it, as indicated by this Ipsos-Reid poll from a couple of days ago. 49% of respondents indicated reform (and the Ipsos question on reform is worded as “..reformed to make it for example an elected body“) while . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Senate reform still desired over Senate abolition or status quo

The Canadian Progressive: Poll: 70% of Canadians think it’s time kick Stephen Harper out

by: Obert Madondo | @Obiemad:

Stephen Harper (Photo: Remy Steinegger)

An overwhelming majority of Canadians think it’s time to kick Stephen Harper out and elect a new government, according to a new CTV News Ipsos Reid poll.

70% us are fed up with Harper and the Conservatives’ dictatorship-style assault on our democratic institutions, values, . . . → Read More: The Canadian Progressive: Poll: 70% of Canadians think it’s time kick Stephen Harper out

Calgary Grit: Chickening Out On Change

“Well this is awkward”

We’ve been reminded this week that an 8-point lead in the dying days of an election campaign is about as safe as a 2-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of a playoff hockey game. Never take anything for granted.

Despite leading by between 2 to 9 points in . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Chickening Out On Change

Canadian Progressive: Canadians oppose drug patent extension in Canada-EU trade deal: POLL

A new poll by Ipsos Reid, released today by the Council of Canadians and the Canadian Health Coalition, shows that what would otherwise be high support for a Canada-European Union free trade deal collapses on the issue of pharmaceutical drug costs, with 69 per cent of Canadians opposing a deal that would lengthen patent protections . . . → Read More: Canadian Progressive: Canadians oppose drug patent extension in Canada-EU trade deal: POLL

Scott's DiaTribes: New poll shows the challenge for the new Liberal leader

The National Post released an Ipsos-Reid poll yesterday, and it shows that a lot of the anti-Harper vote has and continues to coalesce around the NDP:

According to the poll, which asked Canadians who they would vote for if an election occurred today, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 38% of the popular vote, . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: New poll shows the challenge for the new Liberal leader

Really Ipsos-Reid, a poll commissioned by Alberta’s Enbridge on BCers’ opinions on Northern Gateway, published only in Postmedia? Really?

Canadian polling companies are taking a big hit lately and with good reason. One firm I thought would be above the fray is the juggernaut, Ipsos-Reid. Then I read about this iffy IR poll commissioned by Northern Gateway proponent Enbridge about British Columbian feelings toward the pipeline. Adding to the mire is that fact that . . . → Read More: Really Ipsos-Reid, a poll commissioned by Alberta’s Enbridge on BCers’ opinions on Northern Gateway, published only in Postmedia? Really?

David Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: The jury’s out – or it should be, anyway – on the Calgary Herald’s latest pro-Redford poll

Premier Alison Redford of the Popular Conservatives is really popular with these guys, you can just tell!Wow! This just in! Alison Redford is so popular….How popular is she?Alberta’s new premier is so popular she’s more popular that her popular p… . . . → Read More: David Climenhaga’s Alberta Diary: The jury’s out – or it should be, anyway – on the Calgary Herald’s latest pro-Redford poll

Blunt Objects: Ipsos Gives OLP 10-point lead, supports Ekos

Wow, who would think you would see this from Ipsos Reid, on an incumbent premier who has not had the best eight year legacy attached to his name?A ten-point lead, so close to election day? That’s pretty good confirmation of momentum if I ever saw one.I… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Ipsos Gives OLP 10-point lead, supports Ekos

Scott's DiaTribes: When pollsters go after each other.

As you might know if you’re a reader of this blog, I occasionally comment on polls. Today is a slightly different setting. A polling company criticizes and takes to task other “new” polling companies. Ipsos-Reid released a highly unusual statement at their site, where they question those other polling companies science and methods, and caution the news media that use them for a quick headline. A little excerpt:

Some marginal pollsters count on your ignorance and hunger to make the news to peddle an inferior product. Others are using your coverage to “prove” that their untried methodology is the way forward for market research in Canada…Journalists are no mere […] . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: When pollsters go after each other.

Blunt Objects: Two Polls Give Ontario Grits Smiles

One from Ipsos Reid and one from Nanos Research confirm the trend seen in the Harris-Decima poll that was out only a few days ago, which blew the race in Ontario wide open.First, the Ipsos Reid poll gives the Ontario Liberals the lead with 38%, with th… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Two Polls Give Ontario Grits Smiles

Scott's DiaTribes: The Hudak Conservatives are in trouble: polls

We had some people wondering if the Harris-Decima poll earlier last week showing an 11 point Liberal lead was an “outlier”. Well, we have 32 new polls out this evening in a matter of minutes within each other, and while the #’s are different, the momentum is confirmed by those polls for the Liberals.

First off, we have a poll from Ipsos-Reid;

According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have 38 per cent support, compared to 37 per cent for Tim Hudak and the PC party. The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath trail with 24 per cent… the McGuinty campaign has […] . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: The Hudak Conservatives are in trouble: polls

Scott's DiaTribes: Counting your results before the people vote

Very interesting: In a flash sample poll conducted last weekend on 400 decided voters, Ipsos Reid found that the gap between Hudak and McGuinty continues to narrow. Of those polled, 38% say they would vote for Hudak and the Conservatives if an election… . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Counting your results before the people vote