CalgaryGrit: Mulcair’s win was inevitable…but was it predictable?

PunditsGuide concludes her top notch NDP leadership coverage with the vote breakdown of advance and in-person ballots. White Nathan Cullen “won” the convention vote, Mulcair had enough support among advanced voters that he could have dropped his pants and sung La Marseillaise during his Friday night speech, and likely still carried the day. So the ...

CalgaryGrit: Crunching Numbers

Now that the shock of Lise St-Denis’ floor crossing has worn off, it’s worth looking ahead to whether Jean Chretien’s old riding will stay Liberal red in the next election. Eric Grenier at 308 likes her chances: If Lise St-Denis, the MP for Saint-Maurice–Champlain who defected to the Liberals from the NDP last week, decides ...

CalgaryGrit: Redistribution Winners and Losers

Even though it was the right decision, the Harper government likely didn’t do itself any electoral favours by shutting Quebec out of the new ship building contract and the 15,000 jobs that go with it. However, they did announce two new jobs they will be creating in Quebec: Ontario and B.C. will get fewer new ...

CalgaryGrit: Fun with cluster analysis

This is really a propos nothing in particular, but I stumbled across a nifty bit of analysis looking at the voting records of Toronto City Councillors. Using a cluster classification, the numerically-gifted Buzzdata user “Haz” was able to group City Council members into clusters as follows: For those who weren’t forced to spend your early ...

CalgaryGrit: Fun with Numbers: The Conservatives

Last month, I looked at ridings where the Liberals exceeded expectations. Today, a look at ridings where the Tories did better than we would have thought given what was going on around them. If you’re confused about what the numbers in brackets mean, check out my first post on this topic. I’m not saying it ...

CalgaryGrit: Fun with Numbers: The Liberals

As we learned last election, when the political wave rises, it’s hard to avoid it. If ever you wanted evidence of just how powerless local campaigns are, look no further than some of the quality men and women who were defeated by phantom candidates who hadn’t even set foot in the riding, never mind campaigned ...

CalgaryGrit: Fun with Numbers: Most Volatile Ridings

Unless Stephen Harper breaks his own fixed election date law (ha ha ha!), we’ll have a new set of ridings for the 2015 election. So for kicks this summer, I’m looking back at life in the old ridings over the past four elections. I already posted a list of the most exciting ridings in the ...

CalgaryGrit: Could Have Been Elections: The Liberal-Democrats

In response to my previous “what if” post on running elxn41 under a preferential ballot, a few blog readers wondered how the election would have turned out had there been a Liberal-NDP merger. The challenge with that kind of analysis is that we have no real way of knowing what 1 + 1 equals. Even ...

CalgaryGrit: What Could Have Been: Elxn41 Under a Preferential Ballot

One of the democratic reform initiatives that never seems to get much publicity is the preferential ballot. Yet it’s simple, assures the majority of the riding backs the winning candidate, and helps avoid some of the dangerous strategic voting mis-steps we see all too often. It’s how parties elect their leaders, yet we assume Canadians ...

CalgaryGrit: Most Exciting Ridings in Canada

We’ve now had 4 elections under the current 308 riding electoral map, a period over which the Canadian political landscape has completely transformed itself.2004:2011:Still, that doesn’t mean every local election has been exciting – after all, if you live in Calgary East or York West, your vote hasn’t been overly meaningful at any point over ...