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By Greg Fingas, on February 14, 2013, at 10:38 am Shortly after I posted yesterday’s roundup featuring some discussing of Praxis Analytics’ Saskatchewan NDP leadership polling, Jordon Cooper chimed in with the results of an internal poll distributed by Cam Broten – which has been treated as somewhere between worthless and gospel depending on the leadership camp commenting on it. So let’s take a quick look at the actual significance of internal polls in past NDP leadership races in determining what weight any new ones should carry.
The most recent examples to be considered would come from the 2012 federal race – where virtually all polling confirmed Thomas Mulcair to
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On poll dances
By Scott, on February 13, 2013, at 7:36 pm While Ryan has released his healthcare policy, and we will talk about that in another post, one of the more interesting things to come out the campaign recently has been two sets of poll numbers.
The first poll comes from the Star Phoenix, the full article can be found here: http://www.leaderpost.com/news/poll+Sask+leadership+race/7954869/story.html
The first, done by Praxis Analytics is what we will talk about first. Firstly, then poll suggests that few people outside of the party membership are paying attention to the race thus far; in that 55% of those surveyed were not aware of the leadership contest,
. . . → Read More: Canadian Political Viewpoints: Editorial Content: Compare and Contrast
By Greg Fingas, on February 13, 2013, at 12:32 pm In the most noteworthy leadership development of the past few days, Praxis Analytics has released the first set of public poll results since last fall – with a couple of interesting findings.
First, there’s the fact that nearly two-thirds of respondents (in a poll of the general public) couldn’t name any of the candidates. That means that whoever wins the race will be starting nearly from scratch in building a public profile – which isn’t without its upside, as it looks to signal that the money the Saskatchewan Party spent attacking the candidates was an utter waste.
Second, there’s the
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Roundup
By Greg Fingas, on February 12, 2013, at 10:34 am As I mentioned in my follow-up notes from Saturday’s Saskatchewan NDP leadership debate, the candidates’ performance hasn’t done much to change my impression as to their relative position. (Which, as a reminder, is different from my personal endorsement.)
But there have been a couple of additional indicators over the past week: the audience response to the candidates at Regina’s forum, and the information provided by the few voters who have provided hints as to their down-ballot support. So will any of that affect this week’s rankings?
1. Ryan Meili (1)
Well, there’s no change at the top, as Meili
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Candidate Rankings – February 12
By Greg Fingas, on February 10, 2013, at 12:29 pm Since I was one of many who attended yesterday’s leadership debate in person, I won’t wait for the video to be posted before discussing it. (For some of the play-by-play, see live-tweeting from SKYoungNewDemocrats in particular, as well as a bevy of others using the #skndpldr hashtag.)
All four candidates’ presentations were around the upper end of the range established in previous debates. That makes for a rather impressive result given that the candidates had already participated in a forum in Saskatoon yesterday morning, but it also means the debate wasn’t likely to change minds among voters who have
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr – Regina Debate II Notes
By Greg Fingas, on February 8, 2013, at 10:01 am Not surprisingly, the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaigns look to be focused entirely on their efforts to get out the vote now that the voting window has opened. And so aside from a few additional endorsements all around and some jostling for position in the early voting, there hasn’t been much new beyond the candidates’ own activities.
On that front, the candidates appeared in Prince Albert yesterday and took part in both an unofficial debate for MNB Northern Radio (documented in part by Max FineDay), and the official party forum (reported on by Matt Gardner, and live-tweeted by Erica
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Roundup
By Scott, on February 8, 2013, at 1:44 am As this race has gone on, I thought it would become more and more clear which candidate I would get behind. As of this posting, that still remains and elusive and difficult decision.
There’s no doubt that we have a fine slate of candidates in Erin Weir, Ryan Meili, Cam Broten and Trent Wotherspoon. Each has their own unique perspectives and ideas and plans for moving the party forward, but there’s also just enough similarity between them that they could be accused of “violent agreement” with one another too often.
I have done my best to remain as impartial as
. . . → Read More: Canadian Political Viewpoints: Editorial Content: Some Loose Thoughts
By Greg Fingas, on February 7, 2013, at 10:37 am As I’ve mentioned before, we can expect the bulk of the votes cast in Saskatchewan’s NDP leadership election to be cast before the convention next month – and over the past day, I’ve seen plenty of comments to the effect that members are receiving their mail-in ballots. So I’ll take the opportunity to offer my endorsement – which for this campaign will include a full ranked ballot. (Note that this is entirely separate from my candidate rankings, which again are intended to reflect likelihood of victory rather than my own choice among the candidates.)
Before I get to
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr – The Endorsement
By Greg Fingas, on February 5, 2013, at 10:21 am Once again, there’s been relatively little to shift the respective rankings of Saskatchewan’s NDP leadership candidates. So I’ll use this post to point out a few points of interest which haven’t yet made it into roundup posts.
1. Ryan Meili (1)
I haven’t spent much time assessing the choice of image made by the leadership candidates so far. But the last couple of weeks have featured Meili simultaneously taking on two rather different personas: as the tech-savvy candidate who’s introduced campaign apps to the party, and as the traditional candidate who’s comfortable presenting himself and his policies with decidedly retro
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Candidate Rankings – February 5
By Scott, on February 4, 2013, at 10:14 pm On the Erin Weir campaign front, the campaign picked up the endorsement from two former elected officials in Saskatchewan; MLA Evan Carlson and MP Ron Fisher. For a full list of elected officials who have endorsed Erin, current and former, you can check out Erin’s website here: LINK
Erin’s also continued to keep up some pressure on the economic front by calling attention to PotashCorp’s profits for the last quarter and the total amount of tax and royalties paid at the same time. Again, Erin does a better job of explaining it then I can, so it’s worth taking a
. . . → Read More: Canadian Political Viewpoints: Campaign Update: Erin Weir
By Greg Fingas, on February 3, 2013, at 5:00 pm With Saskatchewan NDP’s leadership candidates figuring to be thoroughly familiar with each other and the party’s debate format, one might have expected little new to emerge from the Battlefords leadership debate. But instead, it offered some novel subject matter for the candidates to discuss – and the candidates’ reactions to new (or even differently-worded) questions still look to have plenty to tell us as the voting window approaches.
So what was new compared to previous debates? To start with, the audience questions took a couple of turns not seen in previous debates – with varying results.
An early question asking
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr – Battlefords Debate Notes
By Greg Fingas, on February 3, 2013, at 11:29 am As expected, the last week has been a relatively quiet one in the Saskatchewan NDP’s leadership campaign – representing the break between membership recruitment and voter contact. But there have been a few developments worth noting.
Most obviously, the latest debate took place in Yorkton. Scott has already posted his thoughts, while Twitter coverage at the time was offered by Stephen Moore (with a particular focus on Trent Wotherspoon) and Paige Kezima.
But the development which figures to have the most impact on the balance of the campaign is Ryan Meili’s 9 + 1 message: rather than allowing
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Roundup
By Greg Fingas, on February 1, 2013, at 10:09 am John Warnock’s response to last week’s column (which focused on how anybody with an interest in Saskatchewan’s future direction should be interested in acting on that interest through party involvement) is worth a read in its suggestions as to the policies the NDP should stand for. But Warnock looks to go thoroughly off the rails on at least two points.
First, there’s his assertion about the content of the leadership debates so far: The next election, like the last, will focus on the state of the economy, ownership and control of the resource industries, and general taxation policy. Brad Wall
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On disillusionment
By Scott, on February 1, 2013, at 12:05 am It would seem my own prophecy has come to fruition, as here we are about to talk about the Yorkton Debate before getting to some of the ones that have come before it.
The candidates were their usual selves this evening, as they continued to hammer home the key messages and “buzz words” that have been generated since the start of the campaign. A true moment of levity and uniqueness came from the financial appeal, during which an opportunity for word play and puns was employed. Linda Osachoff, took a wonderful try at incorporating all four candidates’ names (Read more…)
By Greg Fingas, on January 30, 2013, at 9:13 am Yesterday’s announcement of the membership numbers for the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race gives us some indication as to how the rest of the campaign will play out. But let’s put the final membership number in context.
First of all, the oft-mentioned 35% increase over the party’s 2012 numbers is bound to be at least slightly misleading. While last year did include a federal leadership race, the level of attention devoted to signing up new members in Saskatchewan figures to be higher in a vote limited to members within the province.
Instead, the more important precedent for the NDP’s total membership
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On voter pools
By Greg Fingas, on January 29, 2013, at 8:55 am At the best of times, what’s visible and accessible to the public makes for only a relatively small part of a leadership campaign’s work. But that goes doubly over the course of a week featuring a membership deadline with no corresponding announcement of the results.
With that in mind, we shouldn’t be surprised to see little change in this week’s candidate rankings.
1. Ryan Meili (1)
While I’ve ranked Meili at the top of the group of candidates since starting these rankings, I’m also mindful of the need to watch how trends in the campaign affect possible alternative interpretations. And
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Candidate Rankings – January 29
By Greg Fingas, on January 26, 2013, at 6:06 pm One of the more important dates of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign passed yesterday, as the membership deadline will close the list of members eligible to vote for the party’s next leader.
We’ll find out the official numbers before too long, but for now two of the campaigns have given an indication what we can expect. 2,000 new or renewed memberships were sold through Ryan Meili’s campaign according to Aaron Genest (in a post which is well worth a read generally in discussing the background work needed to make a social media campaign effective). And Trent Wotherspoon had already sold
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Roundup
By Scott, on January 26, 2013, at 12:37 am A quick moment to take a look at what the candidates have been up to and any major events that have come out in the last couple of weeks. I’m working on a post for the latest debate, though at this rate, I may have one for the Yorkton debate (which I will be at in person) before one for the Weyburn debate. Oh well, if it happens it happens and we’ll do what we can to ensure that they’re covered adequately.
We’ll start with Cam Broten.
Cam received an endorsement from the United Steelworks District 3, which is the
. . . → Read More: Canadian Political Viewpoints: Campaign Update: General Posting
By Greg Fingas, on January 25, 2013, at 10:21 am In principle, we might have expected the first debate after the holiday break to signal any change in direction from Saskatchewan’s NDP leadership candidates. But it was instead the Weyburn debate which saw a couple of significant changes in tone and strategy (on top of the usual number of noteworthy developments).
While the candidates’ opening statements have mostly seen only modest changes throughout the campaign, two new developments stand out from the above.
Erin Weir’s opening featured far more discussion of principles as opposed to talking points than we’ve seen from him in the past. Yes, Weir continued to highlight
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr – Weyburn Debate Notes
By Greg Fingas, on January 22, 2013, at 10:29 am Not surprisingly, there’s relatively little change in this week’s rankings: there have been relatively few new developments, and the most significant ones have mostly reinforced the candidates’ current placements.
1. Ryan Meili (1)
Meili’s December fund-raising success ensured that his top ranking wouldn’t be in jeopardy. But the most important numbers for his campaign will be those which crystallize this week: new membership sales have always represented Meili’s best chance to put some distance between himself and the balance of the candidates, and we’ll know soon whether he’s managed to achieve that.
2. Cam Broten (2)
Broten may be the
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Candidate Rankings – January 22
By Greg Fingas, on January 19, 2013, at 6:17 pm As Scott has already noted, the first Saskatchewan NDP leadership forum of 2013 saw plenty of familiar themes – particularly in the prepared speeches and the audience questions. But the candidate questions took a couple of interesting turns.
The first candidate question went to Weir, and he used both of his questioning slots to a similar effect – in each case challenging one of his fellow candidates to make a principled case for a policy position. And the strategy seemed to catch the respondents somewhat off guard: Ryan Meili offered an effective first answer on reproductive rights generally but
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr – Rosetown Debate Notes
By Scott, on January 19, 2013, at 1:57 am Video Link: LINK
As promised, the party has put up the video link for the Rosetown debate, so we’re going to talk a little about it. As pointed out during the debate this debate took place in a rural area of Saskatchewan, as such the bulk of the conversation focused on rural issues that we haven’t heard a lot about thus far in the campaign.
In continuing with our last post related to a debate, I don’t think we’ll be doing individual profiles for the candidates with regards to this debate. For the most part, I thought the candidates showed
. . . → Read More: Canadian Political Viewpoints: Some Notes on the Rosetown Debate
By Greg Fingas, on January 17, 2013, at 9:05 am The most significant news from the Saskatchewan NDP leadership campaign this week was the release of another month’s worth of financial reports. And the December numbers look to reinforce rather than change the existing financial picture, with Ryan Meili posting strong gross and net numbers, Trent Wotherspoon spending enough to cancel out a significant take, and the other two candidates seeing fairly little activity.
But I’d think the most important number may be a low rather than a high. Cam Broten’s $4,292.25 December take was the smallest for any candidate in any month of the campaign – and combining
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Roundup
By Scott, on January 15, 2013, at 7:29 pm Financial Reports: LINK
Another month in the leadership campaign down means another chance to take a look at some financial report numbers.
Obviously, the big story coming out of the most recent pack of numbers is the tremendous month that Ryan Meili’s campaign had for December. Ryan has consistently led the pack in terms of the amount taken in, but his campaign has outdone themselves by raising a whopping $29,548.45 in the month of December. In addition to setting a record amount in the leadership this far, this performance has also allowed Team Meili to slide into the position
. . . → Read More: Canadian Political Viewpoints: Campaign Update: December’s Financials
By Greg Fingas, on January 15, 2013, at 10:00 am Following up on yesterday’s introductory post, here are my first candidate rankings for the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race.
1. Ryan Meili (–)
Lest there be any doubt, there’s still plenty of guesswork involved in trying to rank where the candidates stand: the lone poll we’ve seen during the course of the campaign was released back in October, and it showed undecided voters overwhelmingly outnumbering decided ones.
That being the case, I see Meili having the edge for now on two fronts: he’s since built a strong lead over the other candidates in terms of passive engagement, and has also
. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: #skndpldr Candidate Rankings – January 15, 2013
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