After weeks of polls showing a virtual three-way tied between the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals, along comes one poll that shows these startling upticks in Conservative support:
The poll results now show the Conservatives with clear leads in British Columbia, Alberta, the Prairie provinces and in Ontario, where 38.7 per cent of respondents are . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Politics of Fear lifting the wallowing Tory ship?
Here’s my current expectation of the possible seat wins around one week before the October 19 election. I’ve added an X – to mark the right hand border of my forecast – to the CBC/308 instructive Poll Tracker chart: X marks my spot for positions one week before the election on October 19
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015: X marks the spot
A key statistic is not who favours what party before election day, but how many voters actually cast a vote on that day. Seniors vote. Younger voters don’t vote in the same proportions. The latest EKOS poll explains why Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister on September 20, 2015, leading a minority government: Neither the . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election: EKOS poll – Seniors will return Harper to power as Prime Minister
Here, taking a look at the voter pools the NDP will be looking to win over in order to come out ahead in if this fall’s federal election turns into a two-party race. And I’ll note that while Alberta may serve as the most recent precedent, similar patterns can be found in the NDP’s previous . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: New column day
The most significant statistic in the latest EKOS snapshot of Canadian politics is that the “new” Conservatives lead by PM Stephen Harper have now plunged to a level in anticipated support which is 30% below the votes they garnered in the May 2011 election:
You can find the EKOS report through the reference in . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: 2015 Election: Harper’s Conservatives down 30% in EKOS poll
3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the ol… . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory
3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties were virtually tied. The . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory
EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.) Probably th… . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: A Sleeping Ontario Awakens
EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.) Probably the most significant number in the latest poll is . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: A Sleeping Ontario Awakens
Yes, Prime Minister …
Yesterday’s EKOS poll results released by Frank Graves have plenty of food for thought.
The poll results are worth detailed study by anyone trying to get a fix on what will happen in the coming election.
One thing right now, based on this poll snapshot, is that a minority . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015: Why Canadians will have a new government
Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately declared – on the basis . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.
PHOTOS: Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley. Below: Premier Jim Prentice, Wildrose Leader Brian Jean, neoconservative godfather Preston Manning. With five new polls yesterday showing Alberta’s New Democrats approaching minority government territory and the “ooga-booga” fear campaign against the NDP beginning in earnest, perhaps it’s time for Albertans who urgently want to rid our province of . . . → Read More: Alberta Politics: A vote for the NDP is a vote for change; a vote for the Wildrose Party is a vote for the same old Tory dynasty
So we have a couple of polls out today: Ekos (who is behind a paywall) has the CPC suddenly leading by 3% 35-32 over the LPC due to a sudden “surge” in support for them in Quebec – 26% or so. Meanwhile, Leger (who is not behind a paywall) has the exact opposite result; the . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Contradictory polls
This and that for your Thursday reading.
– Linda McQuaig discusses who stands to lose out from a CETA designed to limit its benefits to the corporate elite. And PressProgress points out that Canada’s pay gap between CEOs and workers is higher than that of any other OECD country other than the U.S.
– Meanwhile, . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Thursday Morning Links
When it comes to elections in Canada, with its relatively low voting rates, age matters. Older folks vote with their feet, all the way to the polling stations, while younger folks go about their busy lives, voicing discontent but not doing anything about it. Federally, the Stephen Harper new Conservatives have made consistent inroads . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Ontario election: Shades of the 2015 Harper-Trudeau battle?
I’ve previously pointed out the problem with framing electoral outcomes solely in terms of which party wins the most seats. And EKOS’ polling about which single party is most likely to form government thoroughly misses that point in previewing the federal campaign in 2015.
But that omission aside, EKOS’ results do offer an interesting . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On crowdsourcing
This and that for your Tuesday reading.
– George Monbiot reminds us that the mere fact that neoliberal economic theory has failed by any rational measure doesn’t mean there won’t still be plenty of well-funded efforts to promote it at the expense of social interests: The policies that made the global monarchs so rich are . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: Tuesday Morning Links
The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.
If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs him now. These are calls . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations
Just in time for discussion by political junkies at their latest BBQs, EKOSon July 13 released their findings on the below surface movements in Canadian political currents. Their findings should reassure Harper (somewhat), caution Mulcair to reconsider his ‘roll of the dice, winner takes all’ approach to the next election, and enhearten candidates for leadership . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: EKOS on State of Play in Canadian politics: Massive Migrations and a Lack of Love
Harper’s Tories have rejected any suggestion that the voter suppression crimes committed before and on the May 2 2011 election were lead by that party. As the seven lawsuits supported by the Council of Canadians wend their way through the . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Robocon: Was the Conservative Party behind the voter suppression in the May 2011 election?
There’s very little difference between the last EKOS poll and this one, despite the robocall controversy. The topline numbers (with changes from last poll) are as follows: Con: 31.5% (+0.1) NDP: 29.2% (-0.3) Liberal: 21.7% (-3.1) Bloc: 6.0% (-0.7) Green: 8.3% (+2.2) Other: 3.3% (+1.8) The biggest change, therefore, has been between the Liberal numbers . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: EKOS Poll Shows Little Movement
Two polls have come to my attention which show that the situation federally and possibly in Quebec is further deteriorating towards minority governments and three-way races.
First, in Quebec, the latest Leger Marketing poll shows that Francois Legault’s CAQ has dropped from the high 30’s to 33%, with the Parti Liberal du Quebec jumped to . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Two Polls, Two Minorities
The latest EKOS poll shows one dismaying finding that Andrea Horwath should respond to if she wants to end up on Friday in a position to influence the way the province is going to be governed for the next 4 years.The EKOS poll shows substantial bleedin… . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Powerful reason why Horwath should support PR now: her party is bleeding votes
Ah, good ol’ Ekos – just when you needed a new spin thrown your way.The Liberal lead over the Progressive Conservatives appears to be solidifying as the parties approach the Oct. 6 election, according to an EKOS Research poll released to iPolitics Mond… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Ekos – OLP – 37.8, PCPO 30.6, ONDP 22.7