A new poll commissioned by the Council of Canadians reveals that progressive voters favour an independent assessment Harper’s controversial Canada-Europe Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). The post Progressive voters favour independent assessment of Harper’s CETA trade deal: Poll appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
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A Different Point of View....: Can Mulcair work a miracle and gain unlikely victory?
From the very start, the main issue in the federal election race has been as obvious as the beard on Tom Mulcair’s face, but it’s been largely ignored by mainstream media. The big time journalists are rushing from the leaders’ pre-planned news conferences day after day, but the majority of
Continue readingA Different Point of View....: Can Mulcair work a miracle and gain unlikely victory?
From the very start, the main issue in the federal election race has been as obvious as the beard on Tom Mulcair’s face, but it’s been largely ignored by mainstream media.
The big time journalists are rushing from the leaders’ pre-planned news conferences day after day, but the majority of voters have said in opinion polls that by far the biggest issue for them is to have either the NDP or Liberals emerge as the party that can soundly defeat Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.
During the fourth week of the campaign, it looked like the NDP might be the chosen party. They were at 33.9 per cent in the polls. The Conservatives were at 28.4 per cent, and the Liberals 27.9.
It looked like the NDP might jump to, say, 36 or 38 per cent in the polls and become the party to stop Harper. But it didn’t happen. Instead, the NDP fell back a little.
The NDP might be suffering because of Mulcair’s misguided promise to balance the budget. This is not playing well with Canadians who question how the NDP is going to both balance the budget and pay for all the promises they’ve made. Meanwhile, many progressives who believe the government should borrow to stimulate the economy – as Trudeau promised to do – are upset with the NDP for adopting an overly-cautious position.
If you believe Monday’s opinion polls, the NDP was at 31 per cent, and the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 30 per cent.
This week the NDP faces two big hurdles. On Wednesday, Mulcair will release figures showing how the party would pay for its election promises. And on Thursday he will join the other two leaders in a televised debate on the economy. If Mulcair survives the attacks he will face during Thursday’s debate, the NDP should still be in the race.
Harper hopes ‘dirty tricks’ let him win
Some analysts have written off Harper – largely because they thought the Conservatives took a big hit during the frantic Syrian refugee acrimony. But in Monday’s Nanos Research poll, the Conservatives were back to 30 per cent.
As in past elections, Harper hopes to benefit from a couple of new “dirty tricks”:
- When the Conservatives oversaw the rejigging of ridings and the addition of new seats for Parliament, they rigged the system in their favour. The Globe and Mail analysis of Elections Canada data shows that if everyone who voted in the 2011 election cast their ballots for the same political parties in 2015, the Conservatives would pick up 22 of the 30 seats that are being added in a riding redistribution. NDP would pick up six ridings and the Liberals two.
- The big sleeper in the campaign that could mean victory for the Conservatives depends on whether hundreds-of-thousands of people who favour the NDP or the Liberals can manage to vote. According to the Council of Canadians, the so-called Fair Elections Act makes it more difficult for at least 770,000 people to vote.
There are other factors favouring the Conservatives. A huge percentage of people who say they will vote Conservative do so. But a lot of people recorded in the polls as favouring the other parties end up not voting.
Secondly, the right wing reacted gleefully when the government announced a phoney surplus for last year of about $1-billion. That’s a surplus of $1-billion on a budget of $290-billion.They created the surplus out of thin air by grabbing funds from the unemployment insurance fund and other financial tricks.
Harper’s prayer is for the NDP and Liberals to stay tied in the polls so he can sneak back into power with just a few more seats than either of the two.
Will strategic voting work this time?
Conservative opponents believe they have a powerful weapon in their back pocket: strategic voting. Unions and public interest groups used strategic voting to help defeat Tim Hudac’s Progressive Conservatives in last year’s Ontario election and, including the work of small groups, there will be a much larger effort to unseat Harper.
But can the anti-Harper campaign really do the job? There are a few problems that must be overcome.
First of all, there are two anti-Harper camps. One group consists of strong NDP loyalists who dislike the Liberals just about as much or more than they hate the Conservatives. The other group is supporting either NDP or Liberal candidates in different ridings.
Given that just about everyone agrees that Harper is the Public Enemy Number One, the two camps should avoid feuding that could reduce the chances of defeating the Conservatives.
Strategic campaigning got off to a bad start when Paul Moist, national president of the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) and an NDP loyalist, blasted Leadnow’s approach of electing either New Democrats or Liberals in 72 ridings where the Conservatives are believed to be vulnerable.
Unfortunately, Moist supports the NDP over the interests of the country: an analysis of the 72 target ridings shows that Leadnow will be supporting Liberals only in ridings where the NDP has no chance of winning.
Campaign truce urgently needed
The two sides need to have a truce concerning their campaigns. In fact, they should figure out where there are any strategic ridings where New Democrats oppose Liberals and decide how to resolve the issue. Given the importance of stopping Harper, perhaps they could support the same candidates in a handful of ridings.
More needs to be done. With only five weeks left in the campaign, there’s practically no cooperation among the more than a dozen large and small groups working to elect either New Democrats or Liberals. Some groups have the impression that the Elections Act prohibit them from co-operating, but this does not appear to be the case as the Act concerns itself only with advertising.
For the New Democrats, if Mulcair performs reasonably well and does not “out his foot in it”, strategic voting could bring the party a minority victory.
Groups need to co-operate to make sure that local polling is carried out in all ridings where Harper is vulnerable. Results must be shared and made public a few days before the advance polling dates, which run from October 9 to 12.
Groups also should co-operate to publish a list of the target ridings indicating which candidate has the best chance of defeating the Conservative. Just publishing information on their own websites will not be enough to inform the hundreds-of-thousands of potential voters.
If either, or both, of the NDP voting campaign and the strategic voting campaign are successful, the Harper government will fall on October 19. If the NDP wins, Mulcair has promised to launch a process to introduce proportional representation. PR could bring us the kind of democracy we deserve and, thankfully, the end of strategic voting.
Voting guidelines and, if you want to,
you can vote now.
A Different Point of View....: Can Mulcair work a miracle and gain unlikely victory?
From the very start, the main issue in the federal election race has been as obvious as the beard on Tom Mulcair’s face, but it’s been largely ignored by mainstream media. The big time journalists are rushing from the leaders’ pre-planned news conferences day after day, but the majority of
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Brigette DePape, students “Storm the Dorm” to rock the Oct 19 vote
Bridget DePape and youth activists begin cross-country “Storm the Dorm” university campus campaign aimed at boosting youth voter turnout during the October 19 election. The post Brigette DePape, students “Storm the Dorm” to rock the Oct 19 vote appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingA Different Point of View....: Strong voter registration campaign could mean the end for Harper
The primary objective of Stephen Harper’s absurdly-named Fair Elections Act is to prevent hundreds-of-thousands of Canadians from voting for the NDP, Liberals, Greens, etc.
The Conservatives are, in effect, “cheating” the electoral process again, just as blatantly as in the past. They know that a large number of people – students, marginalized people and First Nations – will have a hard time voting because of the changes. And they know those people would not likely vote Conservative.
Even though the Conservatives are trailing in the polls, it’s much too soon to say they will lose the election. Harper’s gang of strategists and pollsters have masterminded their way to victory three times, overcoming tough odds each time.
But efforts to help people to register to vote are not as strong as they could be. There needs to be close co-operation among groups to make sure that as many people as possible – particularly people in some 70 ridings where the Conservatives are vulnerable – have the identification they need to vote.
Alexie Stephens is one of Leadnow’s staff members working to defeat the Conservatives. |
The Council of Canadians contends that some 770,000 people may have a difficult time voting because of the changes to the Act. Included are 400,000 people who used the voter ID card in 2011 and believe that’s all they need this time; 250,000 people who will move during the election period; and 120,000 who used vouching in 2011.
Harper ‘scheme’ must be stopped
If many of those 770,000 people are unable to vote, the Conservatives could win a crucial number of closely contested seats. Vote splitting among New Democrats, Liberal and Greens – similar to what occurred in 2011 – could also result in another Harper government.
A second factor could prevent many people from voting. Voting was less complicated when Elections Canada enumerators went door-to-door registering voters and explaining where to vote, a process that was eliminated in 1997. Now voter information is compiled from tax records, which are less reliable.
“ It’s all part of voter suppression, making it as complicated as possible so people will just throw up their hands and stay home,” says Stephanie Sydiaha, a Saskatoon activist working on registering voters.
Public interest organizations are responding to the challenge, hoping to play a leading role in defeating the Conservatives.
Dozens of groups want to “knock off” the Conservatives, including well-staffed NGOs, the Council of Canadians, Leadnow, and Dogwood Initiative; unions UNIFOR, the Public Service Alliance of Canada , the Professional Institute of Public Servants of Canada, the Quebec Federation of Labour and others; First Nations groups in many ridings; and avaaz, the international lobby group.
Some groups are urging people to vote strategically for either the NDP or Liberals in as many as 70 ridings, while others are campaigning for just the NDP.
So far, only a few groups are running campaigns that encourage people to vote.
Fairly similar campaigns
The Council of Canadians and Leadnow’s ‘Vote Together’ are the main groups encouraging people to vote. Their campaigns are quite similar. People who visit their websites are asked to pledge that they will vote. So far, the response has been limited.
Both groups are giving extra attention to young voters. The Council has hired high-profile activist Brigette DePape to run its campaign.
The Council and Leadnow are conducting door-to-door campaigns, talking with people and leaving information on what they need to do to vote. The Council has been working in 10 ridings and Leadnow 13. Both groups say they plan to conduct detailed work in more ridings.
Because the Act makes it more difficult for people to vote, groups should do more than just drop off literature and a voters’ guide.
Excellent project in Saskatoon
Interestingly, one small group is doing a more thorough job. In Saskatoon’s downtown generally low-income core, a group of about 15 volunteers have been trained to take people – many of whom have never voted before – through the entire process to get ready to cast their ballot.
The volunteers, equipped with laptop computers, printers and cell phones, go to locations in the city where people congregate. They show people the Elections Canada website and, if they’re not registered, they help them through the process. They make sure people have the right pieces of identification to make sure they will not be turned away at the polls.
“I started with one church I knew about that has a food market for core neighbour residents,” says Stephanie Sydiaha, who launched the volunteer campaign. “I called the Food Bank, they were very eager, so we go there one afternoon a week.”
“We’ve been going to a soup kitchen that feeds 1,000 people a day – yes, in booming Saskatoon, they feed 1,000 people a day,” says Sydiaha , a long-time activist. “These are people who are not reached by politicians, they don’t have TV, or computers, etc. But they want to vote, believe me.”
This kinds of hands-on facilitation should be used by other groups in many neighbourhoods.
Some 14-million-plus people are expected to want to vote. It’s difficult to say how many will not make it through Harper’s rabbit snare of a voting process. But if a million are stymied, it will have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.
I dread thinking of a situation where, two or three days before the election, the NDP is leading the Conservatives by, say, three points in opinion polls. But come the morning after the election, and Harper ends up with perhaps three more seats than the NDP because of his latest trickery.
Serious need for groups to get involved
There is still time – and a serious need – for more groups, particularly unions, to get involved in voter registration campaigning.
Groups involved in the registration campaign need to co-ordinate their efforts. The Canada Elections Act restricts groups (Third Parties) from colluding to provide more than the legal amount of advertising revenue in support of a candidate, but there’s nothing in the Act preventing groups from working together to help people to vote.
Even at this late date, the creation of a national co-ordinating committee could give the campaign the profile needed to warm people about the changes to the Act. There’s still time to publicize the issue and conduct fundraising through a series of national newspaper ads.
There’s plenty of work for individuals. People can contact the Council of Canadians, Leadnow’s Vote Together or their union and volunteer to help with door-to-door voter registration.
Or, if you’d rather work in your neighbourhood on your own, that’s great too. Post voter information in community centres, churches, and grocery stores.
Voting guidelines and, if you want to, you can vote now.
If the campaign works, it will be one of the main reasons why Canadians will wake up on October 20th to a new government.
A Different Point of View....: National voter support campaign could mean the end for Harper
The primary objective of Stephen Harper’s new absurdly-named Fair Elections Act is to prevent hundreds-of-thousands of Canadians from voting for the NDP, Liberals, Greens, etc. The Conservatives are, in effect, “cheating” the electoral process again, just as blatantly as in the past. They know that a large number of people
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Energy East pipeline carries more risks than rewards for Ontario, says report
TransCanada’s proposed Energy East pipeline carries more risks, such as oil spills, than rewards, for Ontario and First Nations, says the Ontario Energy Board in a new report. The post Energy East pipeline carries more risks than rewards for Ontario, says report appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Voter justice denied as Fair Elections Act legal challenge is delayed
Canadians’ legal challenge to the Harper government’s “anti-democratic” Fair Elections Act won’t be heard until after the 2015 federal elections. Voter justice denied. The post Voter justice denied as Fair Elections Act legal challenge is delayed appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Fair Elections Act injunction ruling under appeal, says Council of Canadians
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Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: TPP talks fail: Part of Harper’s disastrous economic project ends, says Council of Canadians
The recent failure of the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations spoils Harper’s agenda promoting the corporate takeover of the Canadian public good, says the Council of Canadians. The post TPP talks fail: Part of Harper’s disastrous economic project ends, says Council of Canadians appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingCowichan Conversations: Council of Canadians Ready to Heave Steve
They have a HEAVE STEVE banner and are planning to meet under the City of Duncan sign just south of Duncan at 5 pm on Thursday, July 2nd. Everyone is invited. If you could Read more…
Continue readingPolitics and its Discontents: A Tireless Voice
A tireless voice for Canada and all of its iconic values, Maude Barlow urges us not to lose heart. Her reminders of the terrible things the Harper regime has done to undermine civil society through funding cuts and tax audit witch hunts is truly sobering, and we should all be
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Broken Covenant: Blistering report on 9 years of Harper agenda
New eye-opening report by the chairperson of the Council of Canadians chronicles Harper’s 1984-style assault on Canada’s democratic institutions and values. The post Broken Covenant: Blistering report on 9 years of Harper agenda appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Fair Elections Act Legal Case Could Call Into Question The Validity Of Upcoming Election
The Council of Canadians and Canadian Federation of Students have filed a Charter Challenge to Harper’s Fair Elections Act in the Ontario Superior Court. The post Fair Elections Act Legal Case Could Call Into Question The Validity Of Upcoming Election appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Council of Canadians’ Maude Barlow asks new Greece government to reject CETA
The chairperson of the Council of Canadians has asked the new Syriza government in Greece to reject the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). The post Council of Canadians’ Maude Barlow asks new Greece government to reject CETA appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Canadian Environmental Group Uses Satire To Highlight Energy East Pipeline Risks
Environmental Defence’s “Great Canadian Migrations” satirical video says grave risks posed by TransCanada’s proposed Energy East tar sands pipeline include climate change and oil spills The post Canadian Environmental Group Uses Satire To Highlight Energy East Pipeline Risks appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: Groups call on BC and Science World to end LNG promotion
Advocacy groups and concerned citizens have signed an open letter demanding that the British Columbia government and Science World cancel their province-wide community seminars promoting the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. The post Groups call on BC and Science World to end LNG promotion appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: David Suzuki “Won’t Be Intimidated” By TransCanada’s Dirty War Against Climate Justice Activists
Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki won’t be intimidated by TransCanada’s dirty war against climate justice activists and Energy East pipeline opponents. The post David Suzuki “Won’t Be Intimidated” By TransCanada’s Dirty War Against Climate Justice Activists appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
Continue readingThe Canadian Progressive: With omnibus Bill C-43, Conservative government going after most vulnerable yet again
The Conservative government’s omnibus budget Bill C-43 seeks to deny refugee claimants access to health care and social assistance, says the Council of Canadians. The post With omnibus Bill C-43, Conservative government going after most vulnerable yet again appeared first on The Canadian Progressive.
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