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CuriosityCat: Election 2015: Is the Liberal Party ready for October 20th?

Who will be our next PM? Probably Harper

We vote on October 19. It will be a cliffhanger, with final results only out early the next day. A minority government is possible, as the Poll Tracker shows with today’s results: The Poll Tracker’s polling average currently awards the Tories 29.3 per cent of the vote and between 99 and 139 seats nationally, compared to 32.3 per cent and 110 to 139 seats for the first-place NDP. The Liberals, with 27.3 per cent support and a projected range of 77 to 110 seats, have a better chance of (Read more…)

CuriosityCat: Forum poll: Harper in free fall and Mulcair headed for strong minority government

Forum tale of the seats

Tom Mulcair is headed towards becoming prime minister of a government with a hefty chunk of seats in Parliament, just shy of a majority, according to the latest Forum poll: A Forum Research poll conducted a few hours after Stephen Harper officially called the 2015 federal election on Sunday shows that 39 per cent of Canadian voters would vote NDP if the election were held today. According to the poll, released Monday, the Harper Conservatives, who tied the New Democrats on the even of the call, tumbled to 28 per cent. The Liberals came (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Forum poll: Harper in free fall and Mulcair headed for strong minority government

Accidental Deliberations: On end goals

We can fully expect Canada’s election campaign to feature plenty more talk about possible coalition outcomes – which are favoured by the public, and may represent the best way to ensure the Cons’ replacement if Stephen Harper again tries to cling to power. And as I’ve noted before, there remains little reason to take the Libs seriously in their threats not to cooperate.

But I’ll take a moment to answer the latest excuse as to how the Libs are trying to present themselves as a party of change while needlessly ruling out what may prove to be the only way (Read more…)

CuriosityCat: Globe & Mail: 95% Chance Harper Government will be replaced in election

The mighty Globe & Mail has spoken, on this, the first day of our election campaign. The writ has been dropped, and the G&M has carried the golden election forecast down from the mountain top, and is displaying it for all to see. As of today, this is the entrails of the portent-indicating G&M chicken:

Methinks there is one of the 6 projections that we can all take to the bank: the 95% chance that the LPC and NDP will together gain a majority of seats in the new Parliament. As for the 79% chance the Tories will have (Read more…)

CuriosityCat: Election: EKOS poll – Seniors will return Harper to power as Prime Minister

A key statistic is not who favours what party before election day, but how many voters actually cast a vote on that day.  Seniors vote. Younger voters don’t vote in the same proportions. The latest EKOS poll explains why Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister on September 20, 2015, leading a minority government: Neither the Liberal Party nor the NDP has managed to make big enough inroads into the senior vote in order to knock Harper’s Conservatives out of power. This means the key to who will actually govern Canada will be settled in the months after the election, (Read more…)

Accidental Deliberations: Trampled

Elizabeth May tells us that her idea of a grassroots movement is a finely manicured lawn carefully maintained to suit the aesthetic preferences of its owners: May said she didn’t want to thwart local efforts towards co-operation with other parties, but that she thinks she, Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair should be the ones to discuss how grassroots co-operation should work.

To be clear, there were plenty of problems with the Kelowna red-green pact which May seems to have nixed: it didn’t make a lick of sense in terms of either reciprocity (since the Liberals (Read more…)

CuriosityCat: Election 2015 Seniors will determine who is Prime Minister of Canada come late October

Convergence

Here’s one interesting finding from the June 16 Forum poll: The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (43%), the least wealthy (39%) and the wealthiest (37%), in BC (30%) and among the best educated (43%). 

The Liberal vote is common to older voters (45 to 54 and 65+ – 31%), the wealthiest (34%), in the Atlantic provinces (38%, down from 53% two weeks ago) and Ontario (31%). among Anglophones (31%) but not Francophones (15%), and among females (29%) but not males (26%). 

The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (29%), males (30%), the wealthier (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015 Seniors will determine who is Prime Minister of Canada come late October

CuriosityCat: Election 2015: Why Canadians will have a new government

Yes, Prime Minister …

Yesterday’s EKOS poll results released by Frank Graves have plenty of food for thought.

The poll results are worth detailed study by anyone trying to get a fix on what will happen in the coming election.

One thing right now, based on this poll snapshot, is that a minority government is considered more likely than a majority government come October this year. The only question to be determined is: Who will be Prime Minister when 2015 ends? Stephen Harper is toast: Even if Harper wins a minority government, his chances of staying in power beyond the first (Read more…)

Accidental Deliberations: Choosing the wrong side

Following up on this morning’s column, let’s note that there’s another area where the Libs are stubbornly sticking to a previous position whose underpinnings have been even more thoroughly destroyed.

The Libs have been at pains to at least offer the perception of changing their direction from nearly everything done by both Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff as leaders. But the common theme of arrogantly ruling out cooperation with other parties continues to lie at the centre of the Libs’ messaging – even though it failed miserably in both of the last two federal elections, and looks downright absurd (Read more…)

Accidental Deliberations: Monday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material to start your week.

- Jay Baron Nicorvo discusses how the myth of U.S. meritocracy serves largely as a means of funneling profits toward the 1%. And Mary Hansen points out one way of fighting back against evolving forms of corporate power – being the development of new, cooperative alternatives to businesses designed to exploit workers.

- David Korten highlights a few of the most obvious dangers in the Trans-Pacific Partnership as just the latest and most draconian agreement intended to lock anti-democratic principles in as a restriction on government decision-making. And ICIJ and the Huffington Post (Read more…)

Accidental Deliberations: On prospects for change

The latest round of discussion about the possibility of a coalition to offer something better than the Harper Cons seems to have taken an noteworthy turn. At this point, everybody but the Libs seems to have settled on the position that there’s no real obstacle to a coalition government – and the Libs’ spin machine has responded with little more than a plan to fabricate mistrust between themselves and the NDP.

But no matter how far that effort goes, the foreseeable outcomes of the next election feature a low probability of anybody holding a majority, and a strong prospect that (Read more…)

Writings of J. Todd Ring: New studies show generosity and cooperation are both natural and intelligent

A new study shows a mathematical proof that generosity leads to evolutionary success. Biologists offer a mathematically based explanation for why cooperation and generosity have evolved in nature [Credit: Web] “Ever since Darwin,” Plotkin said, “biologists have been puzzled about why there is so much apparent cooperation, and even flat-out generosity and altruism, in nature.” “When […]

Leftist Jab: Justin Trudeau’s Message to Elizabeth May: Not Running A Candidate in Labrador Is Patronizing

Why does the Green Party want to cooperate with the Liberals again?

Consider Green Party of Canada leader Elizabeth May who’s fought for progressives to cooperate in elections. To that effect, the Green Party has not fielded a candidate in the Labrador by-election as she explains in this statement:

The Green Party is committed to electoral cooperation in the interest of proportional

The Liberal Scarf: Winners and losers in the LPC leadership race – besides the obvious winner

Was in Ottawa for the leadership reveal, and I’ve been meaning to write a blog reflecting on the race. First off, let me thank all the volunteers and party staff who worked during the weekend and throughout the race.

While the obvious winner was Justin Trudeau, and congratulations to his team are due, I thought I’d write about who I think are the more subtle winners and losers from both the weekend and the race as a whole. Presented in no particular order.

WINNERS

-George Takach

Takach wasn’t taken the most seriously at the start of the race, but

. . . → Read More: The Liberal Scarf: Winners and losers in the LPC leadership race – besides the obvious winner

The Liberal Scarf: Winners and losers in the LPC leadership race – besides the obvious winner

Was in Ottawa for the leadership reveal, and I’ve been meaning to write a blog reflecting on the race. First off, let me thank all the volunteers and party staff who worked during the weekend and throughout the race.

While the obvious winner was Justin Trudeau, and congratulations to his team are due, I thought I’d write about who I think are the more subtle winners and losers from both the weekend and the race as a whole. Presented in no particular order.

WINNERS

-George Takach

Takach wasn’t taken the most seriously at the start of the race, but

. . . → Read More: The Liberal Scarf: Winners and losers in the LPC leadership race – besides the obvious winner

350 or bust: Saturday At The Movies

Beautiful!

calgaryliberal.com: Alberta Liberal and Federal Liberal Cooperation? Lets Go.

I was talking to one of my friends around the the university the other day and I brought up Raj Sherman’s interview in the Calgary Herald on some form of cooperation between the two Liberal parties in Alberta. It was an off-hand comment and I didn’t really expect a conversation to come of it. He [...]

Accidental Deliberations: On first steps

I’m skeptical about Paul Adams’ argument that some type of electoral non-compete agreement between the NDP and the Libs is inevitable an election cycle or two down the road. But he does hint at something close to the type of cooperation that I could see as useful in the meantime: (T)here is a very slight possibility that there will be yet another opening to the idea [of a non-compete deal] before the 2015 election. If the Conservatives were to start polling quite a bit stronger — say nearer the 40 per cent mark — and the Liberal and the NDP

. . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On first steps

Impolitical: Liberals on cooperation

From a letter distributed to the leadership campaigns last week, some content of interest on the issue of cooperation that you may not be hearing in other channels. Ron Hartling ran for the party presidency last year and is the President of the Kingston riding association. Ron is neutral in this leadership race, to be clear, and has committed to his riding to his neutrality. Following his email is some data shared by one of his riding executive members. From: Ron Hartling [mailto:ron.hartling@gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, February 06, 2013 04:00 PMTo: David Bertschi ; Martin Cauchon ; Deborah

. . . → Read More: Impolitical: Liberals on cooperation

Song of the Watermelon: Playing to the Left: Joyce Murray and the Liberal Leadership Race

I still have nothing to say about golden boy Justin Trudeau. For the life of me, I cannot seem to form an opinion of the man one way or the other.

Nice hair, I guess. But meh.

In the wake of yesterday’s Liberal Party of Canada leadership debate, Joyce Murray is the candidate I would prefer to write about. Something interesting has happened in her case: a decade after having presided over massive provincial environmental spending cuts as Minister of Water, Land and Air Protection in one of the most right-wing governments in BC history, she now appears to

. . . → Read More: Song of the Watermelon: Playing to the Left: Joyce Murray and the Liberal Leadership Race

Impolitical: Noted from the U.S.: Remaking politics

“Revealed: The Massive New Liberal Plan to Remake American Politics.” A month after President Barack Obama won reelection, top brass from three dozen of the most powerful groups in liberal politics met at the headquarters of the National Education Association (NEA), a few blocks north of the White House. Brought together by the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, Communication Workers of America (CWA), and the NAACP, the meeting was invite-only and off-the-record. Despite all the Democratic wins in November, a sense of outrage filled the room as labor officials, environmentalists, civil rights activists, immigration reformers, and a panoply of other progressive

. . . → Read More: Impolitical: Noted from the U.S.: Remaking politics

centerandleft: Endorsement for Joyce Murray

Murray Can Lead Canada Forward | Chris Wattie, Reuters (via National Post)

For almost seven years, Stephen Harper has been the Prime Minister. Canadian progressives unite in their call that “we can do better” and yet, little is done to meet actions with words. In the New Democratic leadership race, I backed Nathan Cullen for his progressive partnership proposal. It was bold, it was controversial, but it represented real leadership. Mr. Cullen challenged New Democratic progressives, presenting them with an opportunity for real, meaningful change. Mr. Cullen inspired many people with his surprising success, but New Democrats decided to meet

. . . → Read More: centerandleft: Endorsement for Joyce Murray

Impolitical: Notes from the cooperation front

From a Q & A with Bob Rae, an interesting excerpt on the Canadian political party dynamic: Speaking of teams, you have, as a New Democrat and a Liberal, probably experienced any number of election results and parliamentary situations. The recent spate of by-elections has stirred up the discussion again about cooperation and mergers and various alignments. Do you think that’s a discussion the Liberals and perhaps the New Democrats have to have, either individually or together? Or do you have to think about 2015 as going in there as distinct parties and rivals?

I think the leadership candidates

. . . → Read More: Impolitical: Notes from the cooperation front

Impolitical: More on cooperation

Noted in this op-ed about the Calgary Centre byelection aftermath: Leadership is important but it may not be party brass and power-brokers who usher in co-operation. If it happens, it is much more likely to occur at the local level when frustrated poli… . . . → Read More: Impolitical: More on cooperation

CuriosityCat: Why Justin Trudeau is running for leader of the Liberal Party of Canada

Justin Trudeau & hard work

Very interesting article in Macleans – an interview with Justin Trudeau:

“Can I actually make a difference? Can I get people to believe in politics once again? Can I get people to accept more complex answers to complex questions? I know I can. I know that’s what I do very well. Why am I doing this? Because I can, not because I want to. Because I must.” His voice drops to a whisper on the final word. The bells at the church across the road from the café where we’re sitting in his . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Why Justin Trudeau is running for leader of the Liberal Party of Canada