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CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well. As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government


If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well.
As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have 202 MPs versus Harper’s Swan Song Singers 134.
That’s a whopping 68 more MPs than Harper will have, and Harper will be far short of the magical 170 seats he needs for a majority, and to survive as prime minister:
And the Ontario results are good, too:
Plus the BC results:
Spread the word about The Signal!

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government

CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19. The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it: . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government


Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19.
The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it:
To gain a more precise picture of the voting landscape across the country, the Star has teamed with Vox Pop Labs, an independent research organization, to utilize their election forecasting tool, named The Signal.
Faith in pollsters’ findings has been tested in recent years, both home and abroad. After failed efforts to predict the Liberals win in the B.C. election of 2013, the Star asked “Why do pollsters keep getting it wrong?” Across the pond, British outlets pondered the same question only this year, when forecasters’ projections for the general election woefully undervalued support for David Cameron’s Conservative Party. 

So what signal is The Signal sending us about the election?
That we are headed for a change of government. The national results Vox translates into the following seats:

And the forecasted votes are:

The important thing to note is this: The total of Liberal and NDP seats is 199, a huge margin over the projected seats of 137 for Harper’s ‘new’ Conservatives.


This means that the Tories are not going to win a majority (they need 170 seats for that, and are far from that magical number). And, given the outright rejection by both Mulcair and Trudeau of any chance that their parties will prop up a minority Conservative government after the election, Harper will fall from power on October 20 or soon thereafter.
The Liberals, with more seats than the NDP, will then be given the chance by the Governor General to try to form a minority government that will enjoy the confidence of the House.
And within 18 months – by April 2017 – we will have a new electoral system, replacing the current archaic FPTP system.

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government

CuriosityCat: Has Harper given up his “right not to resign”?

“I will resign …”

It seems that the Governor General has gone on record as saying that the “basic principles” of Canadian constitutional law and conventions starts with a simple one: a sitting prime minister has a “right not to resign”:

Johnston, a constitutional expert himself, advised then Ontario Lieutenant Governor David . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Has Harper given up his “right not to resign”?

CuriosityCat: Tom Mulcair says Not a Snowball’s Chance in Hell he will prop up a Harper minority government

The end of the Harper era

Tom Mulcair has firmly rejected any chance that the NDP would support Stephen Harper’s government in any confidence votes after the October 19 election:

Earlier Wednesday, Mulcair was also asked whether he would support a Conservative minority government.

“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell,” he said.

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Tom Mulcair says Not a Snowball’s Chance in Hell he will prop up a Harper minority government

Political Twitter makes me cry

This is all pretty obvious stuff, but it needs repeating, especially as we head into the Liberal leadership period. I’m not calling anyone out here, but it would be nice if all politicians – Liberal, Conservative, New Democrat, & Green alike – tried to use Twitter in a more authentic manner.

Candidates should do their . . . → Read More: Political Twitter makes me cry