Takes them until par 8 to finally, grudgingly admit that the LPC is still slightly ahead:
The Liberals under Mr. Trudeau were the first or leaning choice for 34 per cent of the survey’s respondents, compared to 31 per cent who said they would or would likely vote Conservative and only 23 per cent who . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: Just A Forum Poll
BOOYAH! BOOYAH! BOOYAH!! VICTORY OR VALHALLA!!!
TORONTO February 11th, 2015 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1018 Canadian voters, almost 4-in-10 will vote Liberal if the election were held today (39%) compared to just less than a third who will vote Conservative (32%). Fewer than a fifth will vote for the New Democrats . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: Its Only Forum, But… LPC Back On Top!
More evidence that the Tory uptick is over, though its from Forum, so take it with salt:
Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s real. Most of the things the Tories have had go their way lately have been lucky bounces. The Ottawa shootings stirred up some fear among the base; our action against ISIS . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: I Will Bounce No More, Forever
Rest of the poll is here. The coalition talk is so much chin music; most important thing is that the red line has stopped falling and the blue line has stopped rising.
. . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: The End Of The Harper Bounce?
Because there hasn’t been much federal polling lately:
Here’s the link. Not much analysis, however. For that, read Grenier. Bottom line: not much change.
And Mulcair is kickin’ LPoC ass! And…and…
Exclusive – While a general election must be held within a year, the Liberals Justin Trudeau continue to lead in voting intentions of Canadians. According to an EKOS survey CBC /, support for the Liberal Party of Canada are at 38.5%, more than 12 points ahead of the Conservatives, who collect only 26.4% of the . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: But Wait! Some Pundit Said Something About Gaffes!!!
Liberals would have won Fort McMurray #byelxn41 if held on the new boundaries, poll-by-poll results show. #YMM #LPC pic.twitter.com/JOWtfsE2ux— Pundits’ Guide (@punditsguide) July 6, 2014
Look at that top-line.
With the Liberals at around 36 points, the Conservatives at roughly 27 and the NDP with 22, voters are in a profoundly different place than they were when the Conservatives won their majority in 2011. Both the New Democrats and Conservatives have bled support to the reinvigorated Liberal Party.
There stuff there too about leaders’ . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: New Federal Poll
Thus speaks Abacus:
Particularly like those Ontario numbers. 10 points up translates into a lotta lotta seats. At least that’s my analysis. Clearly, I am not Nate Silver.
UPDATE: As appeared to be the case, Forum Research has confirmed there was an error in its two reports that listed the numbers that should have been Trudeau’s as Mulcair’s and the numbers that should have been Mulcair’s as Trudeau’s. So, the error crept in when Forum took the data from their polling . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: Forum Research Fucks Up, Admits Error
TORONTO, OCTOBER 23, 2013 ‐ In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1859 Canadians 18 years of age and older, almost 4‐in‐10 would vote Liberal if an election were held today (39%), compared to just 3‐in‐10 who would support the Conservatives (30%). Fewer than a fifth would vote NDP . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: It’s Just A Forum Poll, But…
Latest Nanos Numbers: #LPC 36, #CPC 30, #NDP 25 #PnPCBC with @evansolomoncbc #CDNpoli— Will (@natnewswatch) September 4, 2013
Don’t even think it. The economy has been, and will likely remain, anemic. Usually governments pay for that, even conservative ones who like to style themselves good stewards of the economy. Because clearly they must be wrong . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: LPC Lead NOT Weed Fuelled!
…from this document Not much reported upon, and offered here without comment. (PS. Looks better if you click on image, but if you’re LPC the news is pretty good).
Another poll showing the LPoC up, in majority territory even, and by a respected pollster. Two years out and its meaningless and yada yada yada. Interesting, however, to speculate on what it says about Justin’s “relentlessly positive” approach to politics. Probably not much. I don’t think the Trudeau camp is dumb enough to mean any . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: Polls And Positivity
…who poll relentlessly, if not always accurately:
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1,720 Canadians 18 years of age or older, one third would vote either for the federal NDP or the Conservatives (34% each) if an election were held today. Just fewer than one quarter would vote . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: A New Poll From Forum
The Ekos survey put support for the center-left NewDemocrats at 32.3 percent with the Conservatives on 30.2 percent. The Conservatives won a majority of seats in the House of Commons with 39.6 percent of the vote in May 2011.
The regionals are interesting. If you define “The West” as including stuff other than Alberta, the Dippers are . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: NDP Still Ahead, Even In "The West"
The whole Nanos poll is here. I think I like it better when Alberta is polled separately and not as part of “The Prairies”. Split it off and I bet the NDP looks far more competitive in Saskitoba, as they do in the recent Forum survey. Either way, its pretty obvious that Mulcair has a strategy and, for . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: A "Gaffe", Eh? Part Nope
We should all make gaffes like this.
But what does it really tell us, other than that the flailing hacks of the Canadian pundisphere couldn’t move public opinion with dynamite and a backhoe?
Well, consider this bit:
Also, 45% of respondents said a low Canadian dollar that supports manufacturing was better for the country than a high . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: A "Gaffe", Eh? Part WOW!
Abacus Data finds 37% support for the Tories nationally, unchanged since January.
With newly installed leader Thomas Mulcair at the helm, the New Democratic Party has rocketed to 35% backing.
Far be it for me to contradict a polling company re their own poll, but Mulcair’s original anti-tar-sands blast took place way back on May . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: A "Gaffe", Eh? Part Duh
The New Democrats (36%) have moved into a narrow national lead over the Conservatives (32%). Liberals trail with 19 percent. Green support stand at seven percent support and the BQ has six percent (25% in Quebec).
So this poll was done May 7 to 9, though just released yesterday, after the Mulcair appearance on The . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: A "Gaffe", Eh?
The poll done by Toronto-based Forum Research Inc. this week shows the NDP was the choice of 36 per cent of decided and leaning respondents, with the Conservatives close behind at 33 per cent.If you were an NDP MP/head of a local riding association/rank-&-filer why would you not want to see if the party couldn’t win the . . . → Read More: BigCityLib Strikes Back: NDP Liberal Merger Odds Now 0