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The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Creating a Baby Boom. Not. #nlpoli

Flip over to the Occupy NL blog and you’ll see a critique of some recent SRBP posts on the provincial government’s bonus cash for live babies program.

Let’s summarise the critique and then go from there.  While this summary will get you through this post, to be fair and to make sure that nothing gets missed, go read the full post with all the charts included at Occupy NL.

The author takes issue with the SRBP approach in the initial post in the December series, which looked at the total number of births. He contends that we should look at “the average number of live births a woman can expect in her lifetime based on age-specific fertility rates in a given year.  Secondly, his analysis doesn’t acknowledge that declining birth rates is a trend nation-wide and that provincial rates should be compared to what is happening in other provinces.”

. . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Creating a Baby Boom. Not. #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Fertility Rates: a different perspective #nlpoli

Via Occupy Newfoundland and Labrador,  a different take on the success of the bootie call from the one presented in this corner recently.

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The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Teens and 40s #nlpoli

As the last instalment in our survey of birth rates, let’s take a look at the group 15 to 19 and the other end of the scale for statistics, women aged 40-44 at the time of the child’s birth.

The blue line is the number of births to mothers between ages 15 and 19.  From 810 births in 1991 down to 321 in 2010.  Note, though that the low point on the blue line is 2005 at 254.  Since then the number of births to mothers between 15 and 19 has risen steadily.  The rate is

. . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Teens and 40s #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The 30-Somethings #nlpoli

The number of babies born to mothers in their 30s in Newfoundland and Labrador has declined over the past couple of decades.  But the drop isn’t as dramatic as the decline among the 20-somethings.

What stands out in this chart is the way the older age cohort – 35-39 – hasn’t declined as dramatically as the younger ones.  The 30-34s basically match the 20-somethings, dropping from about 25,000 to around 15,000.  But the older group actually peaked in 1993 but only declined by about 7,000 births per year

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The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The 20-Something Birth Rates #nlpoli

As we told you a couple of weeks ago, it doesn’t look like the provincial government’s policy of paying cash for live births produced any improvement in the birthrate in the province except for the year they announced the bonus cash.

If you look at the number of births by the mother’s age the lack of effect is more obvious than the gross numbers.

Let’s start with the 20s, an age range when we might expect women would start having babies.

. . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The 20-Something Birth Rates #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: So much for Danny’s Bootie Bonus #nlpoli

During the 2007 general election, the provincial Conservatives announced a policy under which they would pay $1000 to any woman in the province who gave birth to a live baby or or adopted one.

SRBP called it the bootie call.  Danny Williams tried to claim the idea was similar to an idea Hilary Clinton announced in the United States while she was trying to get the Democratic Party presidential nomination.  It wasn’t and SRBP explained the difference between the two and why the Bootie Call was unlikely to work.  It wouldn’t work because it hadn’t really worked in any of the other xenophobic places where they’d tried it.

Williams famously told reporters at the announcement in Corner Brook that “we can’t be a dying race.”

You don’t hear much about the Bootie Call from the Conservatives these days, but a look at the birth statistics will tell you what . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: So much for Danny’s Bootie Bonus #nlpoli