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Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties were virtually tied. The . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties. The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the ol… . . . → Read More: Driving The Porcelain Bus: NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

Scott's DiaTribes: Angus Reid: Strong Support For Bill C51/Strong Support for Oversight. (Liberal position vindicated in this poll)

Given the furore over the past couple of months on social media – most of it NDP activist driven – you’d think that the entire country hated Bill C51, the new security and anti-terrorism bill – and entire sections of disaffected Liberal Party activists and voters were deserting the LPC and flocking to the NDP. . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Angus Reid: Strong Support For Bill C51/Strong Support for Oversight. (Liberal position vindicated in this poll)

The Right-Wing Observer: Mashup of public opinion and political events

Angus Reid has begun a series of public opinion polls – I hope – leading all the way up to the 2015 general election. So I thought it would be interesting to plot these results on a time-series alongside a timeline of interesting events that might have an impact on those results.

Initially, there are . . . → Read More: The Right-Wing Observer: Mashup of public opinion and political events

Alberta Diary: Dunderdale’s departure relocates Redford deeper in premiers’ popularity sub-basement

Getting to know you… Getting to know all about you. Not necessarily a good thing with certain dancing partners! There’s just no way actual Canadian premiers, no matter whom they’re dancing with, ever look this good! Below: unpopular dance partners Alison Redford, premier of Alberta, Greg Selinger of Manitoba and all-but-departed Kathy Dunderdale . . . → Read More: Alberta Diary: Dunderdale’s departure relocates Redford deeper in premiers’ popularity sub-basement

Politics, Re-Spun: Online Surveys, No Longer Much Fun

Once upon a time, it was fun to take online polls. For lots of reasons. But one of my favourites was to watch how poorly polls could be constructed.

Once, six years ago, Innovative Research Group put a racist poll into the field. It included questions about whether I had favourable or unfavourable feelings about . . . → Read More: Politics, Re-Spun: Online Surveys, No Longer Much Fun

Calgary Grit: Chickening Out On Change

“Well this is awkward”

We’ve been reminded this week that an 8-point lead in the dying days of an election campaign is about as safe as a 2-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of a playoff hockey game. Never take anything for granted.

Despite leading by between 2 to 9 points in . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Chickening Out On Change

CuriosityCat: Missing info in Angus-Reid poll about "cooperation" of LPC and NDP

Thanks to Angus-Reid for their latest poll, but there is a critical piece of information concerning pre-election electoral cooperation and post-election electoral cooperation which the firm does not reveal, but which could meaningfully influence people’s take on the poll results. This is the Angus-Reid summary of the results on the electoral cooperation issue:

Note . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Missing info in Angus-Reid poll about "cooperation" of LPC and NDP

Trashy's World: Harper? The worst PM since 1968?

Shurely, the respondents to the poll must have interpreted this as a rhetorical question! I mean, who even comes close??? And forget about “since 1968″. How about “ever”??? The biggest change observed since 2011 is in the second question. One-in-four Canadians (26%, +7) think Harper has been Canada’s Worst Prime Minister since 1968. Mulroney is . . . → Read More: Trashy’s World: Harper? The worst PM since 1968?

Alberta Diary: The Great Wall of Saskatchewan: popular, yes, but a peacemaker?

Brad Wall, Christy Clark, Alison Redford and Greg Selinger discuss the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline while visiting China. Actual Canadian premiers may not appear to their Chinese hosts exactly as illustrated. Below: Mr. Wall, Ms. Redford, Mr. Selinger and Ms. Clark.

No sooner did Trend Research of Edmonton publish a poll showing Alberta . . . → Read More: Alberta Diary: The Great Wall of Saskatchewan: popular, yes, but a peacemaker?

Accidental Deliberations: On common viewpoints

I haven’t yet blogged about Angus Reid’s poll on how respondents see the economic issue ads released earlier this year by the NDP and Cons. But I’ll take a moment to point out both the most significant conclusion so far, and the next steps for the NDP in building toward government.

Here’s Angus Reid’s analysis . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On common viewpoints

CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: The Power of the Brand

The latest Angus-Reid poll has some startling results for all parties. It seems that if Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, the party would be propelled from its current third place behind the NDP and Harper new Tories, into the first choice of the majority of respondents: However, two possible . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: The Power of the Brand

Calgary Grit: Trudeau’s Poll Position

Many Canadians polled have heard of this man

It’s no secret that Liberals love power above all else, so it’s hard for any Liberal to stay immune to Trudeaumania when you see headlines like “Justin Trudeau could lead Liberals to first place, new poll shows” or “Trudeau could be Grits’ only hope, says . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Trudeau’s Poll Position

Calgary Grit: Provincial Matters

Charest stands a better chance running against this guy, than against Pauline Marois and Francois Legault

Your Friday morning coast-to-coast link roundup:

Atlantic Canada: CRA’s quarterly poll numbers have been released, showing the PCs up by 12 in New Brunswick and the NDP up by just 2 in Nova Scotia. The PEI headlines . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: Provincial Matters

Blunt Objects: Angus Reid Poll of BC: 42-28-19

As this Globe and Mail article points out (with a few inaccuracies, like 28% being the “lowest” poll number for the BC Liberals since Clark took office – that’s actually 23%), this Angus Reid poll isn’t good news for  Premier Clark, who is now not only facing a vote split with the BC Conservatives lead . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Angus Reid Poll of BC: 42-28-19

Slap Upside The Head: Homophobia In The Workplace Not Completely Gone Yet

A new poll released by Angus Reid this month suggstes that anti-gay discrimination is still a reality for some people in the GLBT community.

While 90% of GLBT employees in Canada indicated that their current bosses and coworkers are tolerant of their sexual orientation, just under 50% indicated that they’ve experienced discrimination at some . . . → Read More: Slap Upside The Head: Homophobia In The Workplace Not Completely Gone Yet

David Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: The jury’s out – or it should be, anyway – on the Calgary Herald’s latest pro-Redford poll

Premier Alison Redford of the Popular Conservatives is really popular with these guys, you can just tell!Wow! This just in! Alison Redford is so popular….How popular is she?Alberta’s new premier is so popular she’s more popular that her popular p… . . . → Read More: David Climenhaga’s Alberta Diary: The jury’s out – or it should be, anyway – on the Calgary Herald’s latest pro-Redford poll

David Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: Never mind the media narrative… the real fight’s between the NDP and the Wildrose!

NDP supporters in the streets of Edmonton. Caution, Alberta crowds may not be exactly as illustrated, and neither may Alberta polls. Below: Brian Mason; Queen Victoria and Prime Minister William Gladstone – cabinet making was always tough.A poll by c… . . . → Read More: David Climenhaga’s Alberta Diary: Never mind the media narrative… the real fight’s between the NDP and the Wildrose!

Blunt Objects: OLP, PCPO – Intertwined not going anywhere fast

Two polls – one Angus Reid, one Forum (the latter being massive) – show that the Ontario Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are stuck together like glue, though AR’s is a little lesss sticky.AR shows the race at 36% for the PCs, 32% for the OLP… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: OLP, PCPO – Intertwined not going anywhere fast

Blunt Objects: Angus Reid – PCs 36, OLP 32, NDP 26

Not really very different from their last poll, which was 38-31-24. However, even though it doesn’t show a drastic change like the other three (not including Abacus), it does show a tightening of the race, in practice.So, as noted, the topline numbers … . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Angus Reid – PCs 36, OLP 32, NDP 26

Blunt Objects: Yet Another Poll Showing The Same Thing Yet Again

Abacus data is not being known for its originality, that’s for sure (despite their “Not Your Average Pollster” claim).Their current results put the Conservatives at 38%, the NDP at 32%, the Libs at 19%, and the Greens with 6%, while the Bloc sit at 26%… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Yet Another Poll Showing The Same Thing Yet Again

Accidental Deliberations: On improved positions

Last week, I noted the top-line results from Angus Reid’s latest federal polling. But perhaps even more important than the stability in Canada’s party polling numbers is the question of which party is living up to the expectations underlying its popula… . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On improved positions

Blunt Objects: Angus Reid Poll is Good News for NDP…. Or Is It?

Regular readers here know of my criticisms of Angus Reid which, from time to time, are proven exceptionally right. Their most recent poll, however, is kind of a mixed bag – especially for the New Democrats.But first, the topline numbers:CON: 39%NDP: 31… . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Angus Reid Poll is Good News for NDP…. Or Is It?

For Whom the Poll Tells

Today’s Big Number is Thirty-Eight(38). With the comfortable space of 2 years between them and the last election, and with the next one hovering tantalizingly on the horizon, the latest Angus Reid poll shows the CPC well ahead at 38%. 38%… I can almost hear the saliva dripping from conservative fangs across the nation… 38%… […] . . . → Read More: For Whom the Poll Tells