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The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls remain discouraging for Liberals #nlpoli

Heading into their convention this weekend,  the provincial Liberals have another poll that confirms what all the other polls have said for the past six months or so.

For those misled by reports about the MQO poll like CBC’s initial one, see the bit down below.

Here’s what you get when you take all the . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The polls remain discouraging for Liberals #nlpoli

Accidental Deliberations: New column day

Here (via PressReader), on how the North Saskatchewan River oil spill may not lead directly to a needed reevaluation of the risks of pipelines – but a public expectation that we’ll shift away from dirty energy may be more significant in the long run.Fo… . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: New column day

Scott's DiaTribes: Liberals have the progressive base on their side – can they keep it?

Liberals are often accused of running (a campaign) on the left and governing right(wing). but recent polling shows that so far, the voters on the progressive left have been rather happy with the Justin Trudeau Government. This article here by Eric Gren… . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Liberals have the progressive base on their side – can they keep it?

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Abacus – First poll 2015 #nlpoli

No surprise that the Liberals are way ahead in the latest Abacus horse race poll.

No surprise the NDP have fallen and the Tories have held steady.

What you need to look at to understand what this means are the results for three Abacus questions.

(Read more…)

CuriosityCat: Abacus Oct 7: Liberal Surge in Ontario strengthening

Latest Abacus poll confirms surge of the Liberal Party continues in Battleground Ontario:Ontarians want a new government, that will handle the economy well, develop infrastructure, provide good governance, and act with decency.We will all get that kind… . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Abacus Oct 7: Liberal Surge in Ontario strengthening

CuriosityCat: Abacus Oct 7: Liberal Surge in Ontario strengthening

Latest Abacus poll confirms surge of the Liberal Party continues in Battleground Ontario:

Ontarians want a new government, that will handle the economy well, develop infrastructure, provide good governance, and act with decency. We will all get that kind of government on October 19. Vote in the advance polls (to avoid any robocalls or . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Abacus Oct 7: Liberal Surge in Ontario strengthening

CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?

Abacus has a poll out on September 27 that has very bad news for Mulcair’s NDP. The NDP support in Quebec, its heartland, has plunged over the past week, dropping like a stone, while the other parties are ticking upwards:
And this anti-Orange Wave has dragged the NDP down nationally as well:

In Battleground Ontario, the race has become a two-party race since the middle of August, with the Conservatives and Liberals slugging it out, and Mulcair’s roll-the-dice read my lips: no deficits gambit causing NDP support to slide:
Ontario voters believe that the main job of any national government is to protect the economy, and to make it grow. Mulcair shed the confidence of many when he decided to turn himself into an economic HarperLite candidate; he will not regain that confidence because there is nothing he can do now to change his fatal choice.
What went wrong for Mulcair?
It’s really very simple. Tom Mulcair should have studied Tony Blair’s leadership of the UK’s New Labour Party with just a little bit more application.
Mulcair inherited from Jack Layton a party that was really a party of protest, not of government: the same problem that faced Blair. But Blair set about changing the Labour Party in a different manner to that adopted by Mulcair.
Very early on, Blair understood that his party had to change, in order to appeal to a wider group of voters. As he put it in his autobiography, A Journey: My Political Life:
As the 1980s gave way to the 1990s and the defeats kept coming, I became ever more convinced that there were crucial bits of a governing coalition missing for Labour. Where was our business support? Where were our links into the self-employed? Above all, where were the aspirant people, the ones doing well but who wanted to do better; the ones at the bottom who had dreams of the top? … Where were those people in our ranks? Nowhere, I concluded…
But it seemed that the party and the voters were in two different places, and so the party had to shift against its will. My own feeling, however, was: the voters are right and we should change not because we have to, but because we want to. It may sound a subtle difference, but it is fundamental.
The crux of the matter was the Labour Party and the economy; this was enshrined in the party’s constitution, that called for nationalization of assets. Here’s Blair’s take on just how deep the change in his party had to be:
Clause IV was hallowed text repeated on every occasion by those on the left who wanted no truck with compromise or the fact that modern thinking had left its words intellectually redundant and politically calamitous. Among other things, it called for “the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange.” … At a certain level, it meant a lot and the meaning was bad. Changing it was not a superficial thing; it implied a significant, deep and lasting change in the way the party thought, worked and would govern.
Mulcair faced the same problem: how to modernize what was essentially a kind of aged hippy protest movement into a lean, mean fighting machine that would appeal to a wide swathe of Canadian – and very conservative economically – voters.
Mulcair changed the constitution of the NDP to slice out similar nationalization and anti-capitalistic policies and values, true.  But in the process, he failed to communicate the essence of the change to enough voters – especially in vote-rich Ontario. He was too muted; the party slid the changes through and then kept quiet about it. My guess is that Mulcair did not want a vigorous public debate about the nature of the changes within the NDP, because he feared this could split the party and there was not much time left before the next election.
Mulcair should have shouted from the rooftops how much the NDP had changed, taking a leaf from what Blair learned from the best politician of the past fifty years, Bill Clinton:
I always remember him saying, “Don’t forget: communication is fifty per cent of the battle in the information age. Say it once, say it twice and keep on saying it, and when you’ve finished, you’ll know you’ve still not said it enough.”
Mulcair has not done that, and he has run out of time to do it.
Blair had a vigorous internal debate within the Labour Party, and finally forced through the changes, setting the signposts for the election campaign:
The pathfinder was already switched on: growth was the key; investment, not tax cuts; redistribute, but carefully and not touching income tax; keep the middle class onside, but where growth and redistribution allowed, focus on the poorest; then, in time, you could balance tax cuts and spending.
Mulcair seems to be lacking a similar pathfinder for the NDP in this election. He has been left straddling the old NDP and the new NDP he has tried to forge.
And he has not been helped by the publication of a manifesto by diehard socialists, slap bang in the middle of the election, that seem to many to deny the shift Mulcair has pushed for.
So when Mulcair announced read my lips: no deficits, he had not prepared the soil enough for these seeds. The party itself seemed surprised by this channeling of Bush Senior; and his anxiety to appear “safe” economically with this mantra, simply forced him into the straitjacket of a visionless plan for the next four years.
This duality was noticed in Ontario, and many made up their minds that having Mulcair control the country, with all the vast power that our prime ministers have under our style of government, was a high risk choice. Read my lips: no deficitsachieved the opposite result from what Mulcair wanted it to. It increased the perception of a leader who would say anything to get elected, rather than reassured voters who desperately wanted change.
The polls show this change in Ontario. That change is set, now.
In Quebec, something else has happened. Jack Layton was admired for his personal attributes, and became the non-politician of choice as compared to Harper and Duceppe and others. The Orange Wave was not just a protest wave against the sterility of the Bloc-Conservative way of doing things; it was also a vote for a man and his values.
Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton, and voters in Quebec are now sifting through the differences. Mulcair’s passion is hard-edged, while Layton’s passion was softer, more personal. Mulcair’s pathfinder is not as clear as Layton’s was: you knew with Layton what his basic values were, and felt confident that he would take the country to places consistent with those values. His heart led his values.
Voters in Quebec are not so sure where Mulcair’s heart would lead them, and so they are changing their minds about the NDP as a viable choice for Quebec, and for Canada.
The decisions of the changed blocks of voters in Ontario and Quebec have now altered the election. The range of choices is narrower now.

. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?

CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?

Abacus has a poll out on September 27 that has very bad news for Mulcair’s NDP. The NDP support in Quebec, its heartland, has plunged over the past week, dropping like a stone, while the other parties are ticking upwards: And this anti-Orange Wave has dragged the NDP down nationally as well:

In Battleground . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?

CuriosityCat: Mulcair & Trudeau both fishing for votes in the same size pools

But Harper is fishing in a far smaller pool, according to Abacusdata:

The whole Abacusdata poll is fascinating and worth studying, and, of course, sharing with friends, colleagues and Tories. This election is one for the record books! Roll on October 19; with some 76% of Canadians wanting a change of government that day, . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Mulcair & Trudeau both fishing for votes in the same size pools

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Forget that Orange Wave Thing #nlpoli

Two-thirds of respondents to the most recent Abacus-VOCM News poll said they believed the Liberal Party will win the next provincial general election.

That’s an important question because recent American research suggests it is a good indication of the actual vote result than the traditional “which party will you vote for?” question.

There’s another . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: Forget that Orange Wave Thing #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The not-so-rare leap: @abacusdata June 2015 #nlpoli

Two different polls from two different pollsters using two different polling methods have shown basically the same thing:  the New Democrats and Conservatives are duking it out for second place, both of whom remain well behind the Liberals who hold a massive lead in provincial politics.

Corporate Research Associates (May) showed the Conservatives still slightly . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The not-so-rare leap: @abacusdata June 2015 #nlpoli

Scott's DiaTribes: Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.

Last week, not too long after the budget release, an Abacus poll was released showing the Conservatives jumping to an 8 point lead over the Liberals. The immediate analysis of that pollster of their results, and from pundits and partisans (even some from our own side) on social media immediately declared – on the basis . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: Pundits selectively cherry-picking polls to dump on Federal Liberals.

CuriosityCat: 2015 Election: Quebec holds, Ontario rises for Liberals says Abacus poll

On guard

Hat tip to BigCityLibfor pointing the way to the latest Abacus poll. The devil is in the regional breakdown, because national poll numbers are relatively useless in Canada.

There are 4 big battlegrounds, with only 3 really in contention:

the prairies are Tory blue;  BC is a nightmare for the two opposition . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: 2015 Election: Quebec holds, Ontario rises for Liberals says Abacus poll

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Insight #nlpoli

By lunch time today, you’ll have Corporate Research Associate’s latest quarterly omnibus poll.  Odds are the overall numbers on party choice for provincial politics will be in line with all the other polls we’ve seen over the last while.

What sets Abacus Data’s poll released on Tuesday is that Abacus asked a bunch of questions . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Insight #nlpoli

Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

The NDP’s biggest problem electorally isn’t a question of policy or values or leadership or connecting with voters or just about anything else perennially brought up to explain their difficulties in the polls both federally and provincially across Cana… . . . → Read More: Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

The NDP’s biggest problem electorally isn’t a question of policy or values or leadership or connecting with voters or just about anything else perennially brought up to explain their difficulties in the polls both federally and provincially across Canada. Their big problem comes down to one stat: only 7% of Canadians think they will win . . . → Read More: Progressive Proselytizing: The NDP’s 7% problem

Accidental Deliberations: On political evolution

Both Chantal Hebert and the combination of Bruce Anderson and David Coletto have written recently about the state of federal politics in Quebec, with particular emphasis on what we can expect as the Bloc Quebecois appears to crumble. With that in mind, I’ll offer a quick reminder as to one of the more subtle factors . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On political evolution

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Stark Numbers #nlpoli

Anyone who wants to get insight into the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador need look no further than the Abacus poll commissioned by VOCM, the first bit of which was released on Thursday.

Provincial Conservatives may be running around consoling themselves with all sorts of notions but the reality of their position is starkly . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Stark Numbers #nlpoli

The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

A new poll by Abacus Data for VOCM shows the Liberals under Dwight ball leading the governing Conservatives in every region of Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 500 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, the NL Liberals hold a 15-point lead over the PC Party among committed . . . → Read More: The Sir Robert Bond Papers: The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

Scott's DiaTribes: On phone polling vs internet panels

An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts).

Why was his polling better then every other public domain pollster? He says it’s because . . . → Read More: Scott’s DiaTribes: On phone polling vs internet panels

CuriosityCat: Unsettled state of voters’ views of leaders good news for Liberals

Especially if Liberal Party members and supporters select Justin Trudeau as their new leader in 2013. Trudeau has lots of room grow and could easily eclipse a much disliked Stephen Harper, as a recent Abacus Data poll shows: Trudeau delivers …

But whereas Harper is only marginally behind on favourability, his unfavourability is considerably . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Unsettled state of voters’ views of leaders good news for Liberals

CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations

The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.

If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs him now. These are calls . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations

Accidental Deliberations: On potential support

Abacus’ latest federal poll includes some noteworthy data on which voters see a real prospect of shifting their preferences – and particularly on the number of voters who are willing to entirely rule out a vote for either the Cons or the NDP.

In particular, Bloc and Lib supporters are roughly twice as likely to . . . → Read More: Accidental Deliberations: On potential support

CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Thomas Mulcair’s worst nightmare

If Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and an election was held today, then three of Thomas Mulcair’s nightmare events would take place Firstly, and most seriously, roughly 1 in 3 NDP supporters would switch their votes to the Liberals. Secondly, the LPC and CPC . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Thomas Mulcair’s worst nightmare

Blunt Objects: Abacus Data Poll #AbVote – 41% WRP, 28% PC

This Abacus poll makes it the fourth poll since Ipsos Reid’s 38-38 tie to produce some major momentum for the Wildrosers by placing them ahead of the PCs, and sixth overall to produce some momentum for the Wildrosers.

That means one thing: trend (basically) confirmed. The Wildrosers are on their way to either tying or . . . → Read More: Blunt Objects: Abacus Data Poll #AbVote – 41% WRP, 28% PC