GO TO OUR CANADA 2011 WEBSITE!

FYI, I will re-directing the blog to the Canada 2011 Election site until the end of the campaign. The direct link is http://democraticspace.com/canada2011. The blog will return after the election…

PRE-WRIT, CONSERVATIVES IN CONTROL

Here is the pre-writ baseline projection for Friday, March 25… CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 25) CANADA CPC – avg 158 seats (39.6%) – low 137 (38.1%), high 174 (41.1%) LPC – avg 69 (26.5%) – low 57 (25.0%), high 93 (28.0%) BQ – avg 49 (10.2%) – low 43 (8.7%), high 54 (11.7%) NDP – ...

PRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – GREENS

GREEN (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 0 >>> absolute minimum = 0 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 0 >>> likely low = 0 seats LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 0 >>> current projection = 0 seats CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 0 >>> likely high = 0 ...

PRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – BLOC QUEBECOIS

BLOC QUEBECOIS (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 40 >>> absolute minimum = 40 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 3 >>> likely low = 43 seats LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 6 >>> current average = 49 seats CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 5 >>> likely high = ...

PRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – NDP

NDP (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 17 >>> absolute minimum = 17 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 8 >>> likely low = 25 seats LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 8 >>> current projection = 32 seats CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 7 >>> likely high = 40 ...

PRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – LIBERALS

LIBERAL (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 42 >>> absolute minimum = 42 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 15 >>> likely low = 57 seats LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 12 >>> current projection = 69 seats CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 23 >>> likely high = 92 ...

PRE-WRIT RIDING BREAKDOWN – CONSERVATIVES

CONSERVATIVE (as of 25 Mar) SAFE (> 10 pt ahead) = 123 >>> absolute minimum = 123 seats STRONG (5-10 pt ahead) = 14 >>> likely low = 137 seats LEANING (< 5 pt ahead) = 21 >>> current projection = 158 seats CLOSE (< 5 pts behind) = 16 >>> likely high = 174 ...

March 20 Seat Projections

New Ekos, Ipsos and Leger polls in the past week, so here are the latest projections — Conservatives hovering right around majority territory… CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 20) CANADA CPC – avg 155 seats (39.6%) – low 134 (38.1%), high 171 (41.1%) LPC – avg 71 (26.4%) – low 60 (24.9%), high 89 (27.9%) BQ ...

CONSERVATIVES CLOSE TO MAJORITY TERRITORY

With talk of a spring election heating up, I thought it would be useful to check where things currently stand — as you can see from the number below, the Conservatives are within striking distance of a majority (which requires at least 155 seats)… CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Mar 9) CANADA CPC – avg 152 seats ...