With the new round of polls in the hopper and the NDP surge from their surprising provincial victory in Alberta quantified, if it didn’t before, it looks like the national election campaigns are firmly up and running for the three major political parties. The campaign ads are beginning to appear and the editorials are getting […]
So says ipolitics (pay wall), referring to the NDP surge that was confirmed this week by polls released by EKOS and by other groups. They go on to demonstrate that, while NDP numbers jumped dramatically with the recent Alberta provincial election results, the upsurge really began as early as February. What this graph (shown below) also […]
It’s not exactly news that Stephen Harper and his merry band are willing to cut a few corners when it comes to getting democratically elected. It’s also probably not news that the party that has been found guilty on several occasions of major financial shenanigans when it comes to advertisements and campaigning has also found […]
Mister 100 Percent Satisified
Move aside, YouTube: here come the new, improved Harper Tories’ Vanity Videos, made especially for every Canadian voter:
Employment Minister Pierre Poilievre won’t apologize for using taxpayer dollars to produce YouTube videos of himself promoting the universal child care benefit.Poilievre insisted Friday that he’s simply using innovative ways to inform Canadians about the newly enriched and expanded child benefit.But opposition MPs denounced the “vanity videos” as a new low for a government that has a penchant for producing partisan advertising on the public dime. And the Canadian Taxpayers Federation agreed.
The Cat has (Read more…)
Prime Minister Mulcair?
A logjam in our politics has been broken by a string of elections over the past two years. Things that were unheard of before, now are reality. Parties that conventional wisdom assumed could not widen their base throughout the country, suddenly are sending dynasties to the trash heap.
And based on this week’s snapshot Forum poll, we are headed for a new government come October, with the old Tory one unable to win a confidence vote:
“It is clear the Notley victory in Alberta has shaken up the federal political scene,” Bozinoff said in a statement. (Read more…)
I’m all in favour of voting your conscience. I’m all in favour of voting for the person who best will represent your riding. However, in the screwed up system that we currently have, your ballot gets used to determine both MP and governing party. And, since a party in power will whip the vote to […]
I do, I really do. I try not to lose it. I try to keep it civil. I try to hold it together. But then this: Pierre Polievre is a fucking worm.
Good news: the Conservative Party has refused to debate the other opposition leaders before the traditional news broadcasters, and have suggested a dramatically different – and very welcome – change of format.
But this decision by Harper’s election brains trust might prove to be the first major blunder in their campaign.
Unlike the kneejerk reactions from some pundits that this change plays to Harper’s strengths, and kneecaps Justin Trudau, the odds are that Harper is the one who will lose in the new style debates.
Stephen Maher in the National Post describes the surprise change in the debate rules (Read more…)
If the Trans Pacific Partnership is really the biggest game on the planet, why really is it okay to negotiate it in complete secrecy? Secrecy to the point that our elected representatives, who theoretically should have our best interests at heart (heh) can’t even see the thing? Why is it that the only details we […]
Anyone wanna guess how much noise would be made by the Whinging Right if the Libs or NDP ever did something like this? Are the Conservatives trying to remind the electorate of Tony Clement’s gold unilingual business cards of a few years back? Are they trying to create easy-to-use election campaign ads for their opposition?
Here’s the latest revelations in the Drip-Drip-Duffy saga:
Plan to prevent Duffy ‘from going squirrelly’ During the course of the interviews, the RCMP also cited a February 2013 email from Wright that said he had been on the phone with Duffy, Tkachuk and Senator Marjory LeBreton, the former government leader in the Senate. According to Wright’s email, the plan was to announce in a statement that the expense cases of Harb, Brazeau and Duffy were being referred to an external auditor —but at same time issue a separate release stating external legal advice was being sought on the meaning of primary residency. “A (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Latest in the Drip-Drip-Duffy saga: Going Squirrelly
Last night’s NDP victory in Alberta changes the discussion a little to the place at which there is a real discussion of NDP in positions of leadership. Not that many years ago, the NDP was either ignored federally or viewed as promoting ideas that were maybe good, but in the end not tenable for one […]
Note the careful words, words that are worthy of a former Prime Ministerial spokesweasel: “I deeply regret the ordeal this has been for my family,” he said. “There’s been no way to shield or protect them.” The ordeal, of course, is Dean Del Maestro’s trial on charges of intentionally mis-representing campaign expenditures and ignoring spending […]
One would think that the question “How many jobs will be created by the federal budget?” when asked of the bloody finance minister who had just delivered the thing would get a better worded response than “dunno“. If jobs were the teeniest tiniest concern for this government, one would think that at least a pat answer […]
The latest compendium of polls by 308 have good news and bad news.
Good news for Harper who – based on these results – would form a minority government after the 2015 election.
Bad news for the Liberals, whose support is slipping.
And good news for the besieged Mulcair’s NDP, which has steadily lost whatever magic it had in the 2011 election, despite herculean efforts in Parliament by their leader.
Here’s the chart showing the steady but slight erosion in Liberal support: And here is the 308 forecast of possible seats if those polls hold:
With these levels (Read more…)
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: 2015 election: Harper on road to minority government?
Here’s to me…
The Duffy trial is beginning to lurch out of control, if you are a member of the Conservative government of Canada. In just a few days, voters have been exposed to a cascade of visual and sound bites that have snapped necks and focused attention as seldom before. Forgeddabout Who killed JR – we are now intensely aware of three things: What did Duffy do? What did Wright do? What did Harper do? Three Do’s, one Wright and one to-be-unleashed Duffy are the wrong things for Prime Minister Harper. The Tories are finding out that in a (Read more…)
Hat tip to BigCityLibfor pointing the way to the latest Abacus poll. The devil is in the regional breakdown, because national poll numbers are relatively useless in Canada.
There are 4 big battlegrounds, with only 3 really in contention:
the prairies are Tory blue; BC is a nightmare for the two opposition parties who split the vote and give the Conservatives a huge electoral advantage; Ontario is the swing province, with the Liberals reaching out from the big cities while Harper ferrets for votes in the dormitory suburbs and the NDP whistles past the graveyard in a (Read more…)
When Stephen Harper’s spinners start pontificating about his steady hand on the tiller over the past decade or so, think on this: Is Canada’s economy really that much better off under his watch? Or has he presided over a country whose financial and economic muscles had continued to waste away.
Sometimes the facts get the way of a good story, and the facts about the sinews of our country’s economy are bleak indeed. As Eric Reguly summarizesin today’s Globe & Mail: Entire Canadian industries – steel, brewing, mining, forestry – got hollowed out, leaving a few sorry subsidiaries behind. (Read more…)
Wise money chases low margins
After the last election, I wrote a post that pointed out that these 14 seats were won by the Conservatives by the slim average of 443 votes per seat. With the Tories ahead of the Liberal Party in fundraising so far, the Liberals could be well advised to set aside a sizeable whack of cash to contest these fifteen low-margin seats. Better bang for your buck, eh?
Den Tandt: Muclair cannot count
So, what will our next federal government look like? Today is the last day of the year 2014, and most commentators have hidden their heads in the sand rather than venture a public guess.
Michael Den Tandt is one of the braver ones.
In an article in the National Post he forecasts a minority government for Stephen Harper, without any attempt by the two opposition parties – which combined will have more MPs than the Tory minority government – to vote him out in a no-confidence vote. Den Tandt believes that Harper will survive for (Read more…)
Pollster Nick Nanos has just released a Christmas goodie for the party leaders of the three parties vying to form the next government of Canada. Based on just one question – how fluid the electorate is – either one of these three parties could form a majority government come the next election, if the election campaign gave them a few breaks. Here’s the percentages: When asked about whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties in a set of independent questions, the Liberals continued to enjoy the highest proportion of accessible voters in the (Read more…)
Mulcair: The man who would bring democracy to Canada
Thomas Mulcair, that very capable MP who is leader of the NDP, has publicly committed himself to remedy our democratic deficit, as this post indicates. Mulcair is to be commended for two things. First, for signing the Fair Vote Canada declaration (click herefor the full text). Second, for strongly coming out in favour of a modified proportional representation system of electing our federal MPs. The Fair Vote Canada declaration has this very important commitment:
What is important about the Fair Vote Canada declaration is that it is the modern equivalent (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Mulcair leads the way to a more democratic Canada
Let’s talk coalition …
The recent poll showing that most Liberal and NDP supporters would rather have a new government than have a Harper one after the 2015 election, even if this means some form of a coalition, has sparked renewed talk about the possibility of a coalition.
One problem with such talk is that a lack of understanding of our constitutional laws clouds the issue, as Andrew Coyne has pointed out in an interesting article.
And in a recent interview, Justin Trudeau has added to the confusion by slipping into the Either-Or mode of thinking, which sorely limits the permissible (Read more…)
Which one, or two, of these men will lead Canada?
The end of the Harper government is clear from this latest poll, which shows that the Harper scare tactics of the past have run their course: Liberal and NDP supporters, meanwhile, have expressed a tepid willingness to consider each other, suggesting that a Liberal-NDP coalition may be feasible should the Conservatives pull off a minority win in 2015. Indeed, unlike in 2011, it appears now that Liberals and NDP supporters are equally likely to say they are certain to be voting. The rise of greater commitment to vote in (Read more…)