Latest Abacus poll confirms surge of the Liberal Party continues in Battleground Ontario:
Ontarians want a new government, that will handle the economy well, develop infrastructure, provide good governance, and act with decency. We will all get that kind of government on October 19. Vote in the advance polls (to avoid any robocalls or other voter suppression tactics), and take a younger voter along with you. Vote so as to unseat a sitting Conservative MP if you have one in your riding.
Trudeau has led his Liberal Party to a forecasted number of MPs equal to those that Harper’s tired Conservatives might elect: 132 MPs each. With neither the CPC nor the LPC having a majority of seats (170 MPs), this result would mean the end of the Harper government, and a new Liberal Party government, with Justin Trudeau as prime minister, and Harper as leader of the Opposition. Here’s the dramatic chart:
Now, if the Liberals claw one extra seat from the CPC or NDP, then Harper will resign as PM on the evening of October 19, as he promised (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal Oct 6: Tories 132 seats; Liberals 132 seats; NDP 71 seats
The Poll Tracker for October 5 shows the steady surge of Liberal Party votes, and translates the various polls into a national seat projection. Harper told Peter Mansbridge that if the Conservatives won one seat less than any other party, he would immediately resign as prime minister. With two weeks to go, the Liberals only need four (that’s right! 4!) more seats to reach the Harper Resignation total:
While you are at the site, check the seat projections and polls for Battlegrounds BC and Ontario. And help make Harper’s decision easier by voting in the advance poll; take someone (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Another 4 LPC seats and Harper resigns on October 19
Mulcair has only two weeks to reverse a dramatic reversal in the minds of voters of just who, in an election where about 70% of the voters want a change, bears the Change mantel. Harper is an also-ran in the Who is the best change agent stakes (offering less of the present is not a recipe for change). Mulcair started the race with the best chance to represent the change that most voters want to take place on October 19. But somewhere on the road his chariot to victory lost a wheel or two and veered off to the right (Read more…)
Today Justin Trudeau had a message for supporters of the Conservative Party that should resonate all the way up to the close of the polls on election night October 19:
But I want you to keep something in mind. Always.
In the end, we are all Canadians.
Conservatives are not our enemies. They’re our neighbours.
They want what’s best for their country, just like (Read more…)
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Trudeau’s Message to Conservative Supporters
The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed! Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends. Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results: And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec and BC (my underlining): The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that, regionally: The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with 52.1 per cent support, and in Ontario with 44 per cent support. The Conservatives (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll
It is not often I get to talk about issues related to the monarchy on this blog. I mostly keep that on the other blog I writefor. However the Monarchist League of Canada recently surveyed the main federal parties on their views towards theCanadian Monarchy. One of the answers was curious though. The NDP’s reply was thus:
“The NDP is not planning any changes to our current form of the parliamentary system. Ourfocus is on meeting the challenges of middle-class families for better jobs, affordablechildcare and reliable healthcare.”
Now there are a few things to (Read more…)
Here’s the Nanos latest poll:
Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally. (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos
If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well. As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have 202 MPs versus Harper’s Swan Song Singers 134. That’s (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government
Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19. The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it: To gain a more precise picture of the voting landscape (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government
Thomas Mulcair: Man of Principle
Mr. Mulcair was asked a simple question, loaded with peril, and he answered it very clearly in the last debate on foreign affairs. His answer to the question whether he agreed with the federal court’s decision regarding the right of a woman to cover her face with a niqab was Yes.
Yes, a woman could do so if she wished for personal reasons or for religious reasons to cover her face during the ceremonial part of the citizenship ceremony. No, she had no right to cover her face during the part of the citizen admission (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Niqab: In defence of Thomas Mulcair
Here’s the stark facts of the state of play from today’s CBC/308 Poll Tracker:
Note that Harper’s Conservatives are still far short of a majority, the only way that Harper will remain prime minister, given the emphatic rejections by both Mulcair and Trudeau of either opposition party voting confidence in a Harper minority government. So Harper needs to reach the magical number of 170 seats to stay in power after election day October 19. And notice that in Ontario, the projected seat total for the Liberals and Conservatives are almost equal today – 53 Conservative, 50 Liberal – with (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Poll Tracker: Harper 125 Mulcair + Trudeau 211 = New Government on October 19
You can find the latest Nanos poll here. The movement amongst the 66% plus non-Harper supporters towards choosing one opposition party to favour on election day October 19 is speeding up. In BC the Liberals have moved up sharply, at the expense of the NDP:
And in Battleground Ontario, with almost one third of the total 338 seats in the House, the battle between the Conservatives and Liberals continues apace, with the NDP fading: Another five days of similar trends, and the message will sink in to even more of the mass of change-seeking voters: time to think seriously of (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberal march in BC speeds up – Nanos poll September 29
Trudeau: The Fighter
Let’s start with the view of how Tom Mulcair behaved in the Munk foreign policy debate, from Gerald Caplan: But if I remove my mask of detachment, I must report that it was not at all the night the NDP needed to recover its faded lead. But there’s still three weeks left – a lifetime in politics. We have the most polarizing and, yes, dangerous, government in Canadian history and we have the NDP positioned to take advantage of it. Yet the NDP focuses its attacks far more on Mr. Trudeau and gives the government almost (Read more…)
Abacus has a poll out on September 27 that has very bad news for Mulcair’s NDP. The NDP support in Quebec, its heartland, has plunged over the past week, dropping like a stone, while the other parties are ticking upwards: And this anti-Orange Wave has dragged the NDP down nationally as well:
In Battleground Ontario, the race has become a two-party race since the middle of August, with the Conservatives and Liberals slugging it out, and Mulcair’s roll-the-dice read my lips: no deficits gambit causing NDP support to slide: Ontario voters believe that the main job of any national government (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Is an anti-Orange Wave rising in Quebec?
An expert in body language viewed the French language debate and Christine Gagnon had this to say about Tom (Thomas?) Mulcair’s body gestures:
Watch for Mulcair to repeat these gestures in Monday’s debate on foreign affairs. What about Harper? The expert says he had a fake smile, and his eyebrows gave him away:
Gagnon didn’t beat around the bush: “Stephen Harper lacks all spontaneity in his gestures.” The Conservative leader endlessly repeats the same gestures, which are all very symmetrical, almost robotic. This symmetry indicates a desire to control the debate.
He frequently looked into the camera, which (Read more…)
“I will resign …”
It seems that the Governor General has gone on record as saying that the “basic principles” of Canadian constitutional law and conventions starts with a simple one: a sitting prime minister has a “right not to resign”:
Johnston, a constitutional expert himself, advised then Ontario Lieutenant Governor David Onley in 2014 when he looked set to face a similar constitutional (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Has Harper given up his “right not to resign”?
The presentation of the Liberal plan leaves something to be desired, with the Conservatives blethering about a $6.5 billion hole that will be filled with tax increases on the middle class and on seniors, and the NDP just going on about everything in general. Here’s one explanation in Macleans of the incredible shrinking hole – down from the Harper dead cat on the (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: If the “hole” in the Liberal 4-year Plan is not $6.5 billion, then explain how big it is
So what is in the Liberal spending plan? You can find the plan itself at this site. The plan is well-written, with a clear explanation of the principles that underlie it, a good layout of the major expenditure and revenue items, and a comparison of the different governance values that drive the Liberal plan with those drivers of the NDP and Conservative plans. This (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Quick summary of the Liberal 4-year Plan
Poll Tracker, that nifty combo-projections by the CBC and 308, for the first time today shows the Liberal Party nudging ahead of the NDP in number of seats it might win. Here’s the graph: Liberal Party overtakes NDP in seat count
Notice, too, that according to Nanos Trudeau has pulled equal with Harper as the best choice for prime minister: Trudeau draws level with Harper
Expect the onward progress of the LPC to proceed apace. And for some of the reasons for this inexorable march to power, read about Trudeau’s Canadian campaign advisor here – and note that the (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberal Party edges ahead of NDP in seats
When Canadians reflect on the success of the Liberal Party in gaining power in the October 19 election, many will not know how important one issue was in gaining that victory.
Nor will many Canadians know who was the mastermind behind that winning issue. Thanks to one of the masterful journalists who write in Macleans, Martin Patriquin, they will not have to go far to find the answers. In the September 25 issue of Macleans, Patriquin outlines the background of the man behind Trudeau’s campaign for election. Gerald Butts is not only a policy wonk, but a seasoned political (Read more…)
Dead cat on a table strategy
Some 3,000 Canadians have crowdfunded polls by Leadnow of 31 crucial ridings across Canada where the margin of victory of the Conservatives was small enough to be vulnerable to strategic voting. You can read about it and access each riding’s results here. What seems to be emerging is that the primary question on the lips of the (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Strategic voting taking root in Canada 3 weeks before election day
After weeks of polls showing a virtual three-way tied between the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals, along comes one poll that shows these startling upticks in Conservative support:
The poll results now show the Conservatives with clear leads in British Columbia, Alberta, the Prairie provinces and in Ontario, where 38.7 per cent of respondents are backing the Tories compared to 30.3 per cent (Read more…)
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Politics of Fear lifting the wallowing Tory ship?
“In the name of God, go!”
Twice, in British history, have words been uttered to a leader that his time is up: once, in Cromwell’s time, and again, in 1940:
In the spring of 1940 British forces in Norway were overwhelmed by the Nazis. On May 7 Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain faced a critical motion by the Labor opposition in the House (Read more…)
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Harper fatigue in Harperland
The end of the Harper era
Tom Mulcair has firmly rejected any chance that the NDP would support Stephen Harper’s government in any confidence votes after the October 19 election:
Earlier Wednesday, Mulcair was also asked whether he would support a Conservative minority government.
“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell,” he said.
“There’s no likelihood that the NDP would ever, under any circumstances, be able to support Mr. Harper, his divisive politics, his backward economics that have left 400,000 manufacturing jobs disappear over the last few years.”
That echoed a pledge from Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who said (Read more…)