The numberof non-runners is staggering: Stephen Harper is losing incumbent lawmakers at one of the highest rates in decades, and history suggests that weighs heavily on the Canadian Prime Minister’s chances of winning another term in power later this year.
Of 166 Conservatives elected to the House of Commons during Harper’s first majority in 2011, at least 46 are not running for the party this fall. It’s the third-highest dropout rate since the Second World War and the highest since 1993, according to data compiled by Bloomberg… Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the first Prime Minister since Louis St. (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015: Incredibly, 28% of Harper’s Conservative MPs are not running
Global News graphic of the horse race
James Armstrong of Global News has a fascinating article about the findings of the Barry Kay team of the Laurier Institute, with three really illuminating graphics. The three diagrams clearly spell out the problems facing the Liberals and the Conservatives, if either Trudeau or Harper are to have a chance of becoming prime minister. Analysing recent polls, Kay projects that if the federal election were held today, Mulcair’s NDP would win the most seats – 130 –with Harper’s tattered Tories coming in with 119, and the Liberals bringing up the rear with (Read more…)
Here’s one interesting finding from the June 16 Forum poll: The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (43%), the least wealthy (39%) and the wealthiest (37%), in BC (30%) and among the best educated (43%).
The Liberal vote is common to older voters (45 to 54 and 65+ – 31%), the wealthiest (34%), in the Atlantic provinces (38%, down from 53% two weeks ago) and Ontario (31%). among Anglophones (31%) but not Francophones (15%), and among females (29%) but not males (26%).
The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (29%), males (30%), the wealthier (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015 Seniors will determine who is Prime Minister of Canada come late October
Just when Tom Mulcair was starting to measure the curtains in Harper’s home so that he could replace them when he became Prime Minister; when the polls showed a surge of votes for the NDP after the dramatic events in the recent Alberta election; and when pundits have started writing about Justin Trudeau being a washed up politician, Trudeau has taken to the airwaves to unveil a set of promises that will radically change the way that Canadians vote for and interact with their federal government.
The scope of the changes included in the plans to restore democracy in Canada (Read more…)
Yes, Prime Minister …
Yesterday’s EKOS poll results released by Frank Graves have plenty of food for thought.
The poll results are worth detailed study by anyone trying to get a fix on what will happen in the coming election.
One thing right now, based on this poll snapshot, is that a minority government is considered more likely than a majority government come October this year. The only question to be determined is: Who will be Prime Minister when 2015 ends? Stephen Harper is toast: Even if Harper wins a minority government, his chances of staying in power beyond the first (Read more…)
Today’s announcement that Peter MacKay is not going to run for his seat in Parliament this fall has me thinking that maybe this is a sign that Stephen Harper is losing control of his party finally. Some months ago when John Baird announced that he was stepping down to spend more time with his corporations, […]
With the new round of polls in the hopper and the NDP surge from their surprising provincial victory in Alberta quantified, if it didn’t before, it looks like the national election campaigns are firmly up and running for the three major political parties. The campaign ads are beginning to appear and the editorials are getting […]
So says ipolitics (pay wall), referring to the NDP surge that was confirmed this week by polls released by EKOS and by other groups. They go on to demonstrate that, while NDP numbers jumped dramatically with the recent Alberta provincial election results, the upsurge really began as early as February. What this graph (shown below) also […]
It’s not exactly news that Stephen Harper and his merry band are willing to cut a few corners when it comes to getting democratically elected. It’s also probably not news that the party that has been found guilty on several occasions of major financial shenanigans when it comes to advertisements and campaigning has also found […]
Mister 100 Percent Satisified
Move aside, YouTube: here come the new, improved Harper Tories’ Vanity Videos, made especially for every Canadian voter:
Employment Minister Pierre Poilievre won’t apologize for using taxpayer dollars to produce YouTube videos of himself promoting the universal child care benefit.Poilievre insisted Friday that he’s simply using innovative ways to inform Canadians about the newly enriched and expanded child benefit.But opposition MPs denounced the “vanity videos” as a new low for a government that has a penchant for producing partisan advertising on the public dime. And the Canadian Taxpayers Federation agreed.
The Cat has (Read more…)
Prime Minister Mulcair?
A logjam in our politics has been broken by a string of elections over the past two years. Things that were unheard of before, now are reality. Parties that conventional wisdom assumed could not widen their base throughout the country, suddenly are sending dynasties to the trash heap.
And based on this week’s snapshot Forum poll, we are headed for a new government come October, with the old Tory one unable to win a confidence vote:
“It is clear the Notley victory in Alberta has shaken up the federal political scene,” Bozinoff said in a statement. (Read more…)
I’m all in favour of voting your conscience. I’m all in favour of voting for the person who best will represent your riding. However, in the screwed up system that we currently have, your ballot gets used to determine both MP and governing party. And, since a party in power will whip the vote to […]
I do, I really do. I try not to lose it. I try to keep it civil. I try to hold it together. But then this: Pierre Polievre is a fucking worm.
Good news: the Conservative Party has refused to debate the other opposition leaders before the traditional news broadcasters, and have suggested a dramatically different – and very welcome – change of format.
But this decision by Harper’s election brains trust might prove to be the first major blunder in their campaign.
Unlike the kneejerk reactions from some pundits that this change plays to Harper’s strengths, and kneecaps Justin Trudau, the odds are that Harper is the one who will lose in the new style debates.
Stephen Maher in the National Post describes the surprise change in the debate rules (Read more…)
If the Trans Pacific Partnership is really the biggest game on the planet, why really is it okay to negotiate it in complete secrecy? Secrecy to the point that our elected representatives, who theoretically should have our best interests at heart (heh) can’t even see the thing? Why is it that the only details we […]
Anyone wanna guess how much noise would be made by the Whinging Right if the Libs or NDP ever did something like this? Are the Conservatives trying to remind the electorate of Tony Clement’s gold unilingual business cards of a few years back? Are they trying to create easy-to-use election campaign ads for their opposition?
Here’s the latest revelations in the Drip-Drip-Duffy saga:
Plan to prevent Duffy ‘from going squirrelly’ During the course of the interviews, the RCMP also cited a February 2013 email from Wright that said he had been on the phone with Duffy, Tkachuk and Senator Marjory LeBreton, the former government leader in the Senate. According to Wright’s email, the plan was to announce in a statement that the expense cases of Harb, Brazeau and Duffy were being referred to an external auditor —but at same time issue a separate release stating external legal advice was being sought on the meaning of primary residency. “A (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Latest in the Drip-Drip-Duffy saga: Going Squirrelly
Last night’s NDP victory in Alberta changes the discussion a little to the place at which there is a real discussion of NDP in positions of leadership. Not that many years ago, the NDP was either ignored federally or viewed as promoting ideas that were maybe good, but in the end not tenable for one […]
Note the careful words, words that are worthy of a former Prime Ministerial spokesweasel: “I deeply regret the ordeal this has been for my family,” he said. “There’s been no way to shield or protect them.” The ordeal, of course, is Dean Del Maestro’s trial on charges of intentionally mis-representing campaign expenditures and ignoring spending […]
One would think that the question “How many jobs will be created by the federal budget?” when asked of the bloody finance minister who had just delivered the thing would get a better worded response than “dunno“. If jobs were the teeniest tiniest concern for this government, one would think that at least a pat answer […]
The latest compendium of polls by 308 have good news and bad news.
Good news for Harper who – based on these results – would form a minority government after the 2015 election.
Bad news for the Liberals, whose support is slipping.
And good news for the besieged Mulcair’s NDP, which has steadily lost whatever magic it had in the 2011 election, despite herculean efforts in Parliament by their leader.
Here’s the chart showing the steady but slight erosion in Liberal support: And here is the 308 forecast of possible seats if those polls hold:
With these levels (Read more…)
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: 2015 election: Harper on road to minority government?
Here’s to me…
The Duffy trial is beginning to lurch out of control, if you are a member of the Conservative government of Canada. In just a few days, voters have been exposed to a cascade of visual and sound bites that have snapped necks and focused attention as seldom before. Forgeddabout Who killed JR – we are now intensely aware of three things: What did Duffy do? What did Wright do? What did Harper do? Three Do’s, one Wright and one to-be-unleashed Duffy are the wrong things for Prime Minister Harper. The Tories are finding out that in a (Read more…)
Hat tip to BigCityLibfor pointing the way to the latest Abacus poll. The devil is in the regional breakdown, because national poll numbers are relatively useless in Canada.
There are 4 big battlegrounds, with only 3 really in contention:
the prairies are Tory blue; BC is a nightmare for the two opposition parties who split the vote and give the Conservatives a huge electoral advantage; Ontario is the swing province, with the Liberals reaching out from the big cities while Harper ferrets for votes in the dormitory suburbs and the NDP whistles past the graveyard in a (Read more…)
When Stephen Harper’s spinners start pontificating about his steady hand on the tiller over the past decade or so, think on this: Is Canada’s economy really that much better off under his watch? Or has he presided over a country whose financial and economic muscles had continued to waste away.
Sometimes the facts get the way of a good story, and the facts about the sinews of our country’s economy are bleak indeed. As Eric Reguly summarizesin today’s Globe & Mail: Entire Canadian industries – steel, brewing, mining, forestry – got hollowed out, leaving a few sorry subsidiaries behind. (Read more…)