My internet picks the worst times to stop working. As a result I was without internet for the lead up and aftermath ofelection 2015. But I’m back online and ready to give my thoughts on Monday’s election results. Fundy Royal Goes Liberal I never imagined I’d see the day when the riding of Fundy Royal would elect a Liberal. Further, I never imagined I’d behappy about it. I took the time to contact each MP during the campaign (and met many of them in person) and it wasLiberal candidate Alaina Lockhart who impressed me the most. Accessible, willing (Read more…)
Fare thee well
Goodbye, Mr. Sourpuss.
Hello, Mr. Sunshine. Yesterday 68% of Canadian voters sent a message to politicians: Canada has had enough of sleazy Harperism. Now we have MPs elected from the Liberal Party, NDP and Green parties with the mandate to scrap the undemocratic First Past the Post System of electing our MPs, and replace it forthwith – within 18 months – with a new system where every vote counts, in time for the next election; to remedy our democratic deficits; to restore civility to our Parliament; to take the muzzles off our elected MPs and allow them (Read more…)
When you vote on Monday, you will earn Bragging Rights for your part in one of the most historical events in Canadian history. In years to come, you will be able to hold your head high and tell your friends, relatives, colleagues and strangers that YOU voted in the election that:
© Exciting: It was the most exciting election for years, flipping this way and that way for week after week, during the longest campaign in living history; © Pink Slip: Gave Stephen Harper permission to step down as prime minister, and, should he wish to, (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Be a part of History & win your Bragging Rights by Voting on Monday
… so you can all laugh at me on Tuesday… (0) Trashy, Ottawa, Ontario
The Great Canadian 2015 Revolution
The Harper government has, during its four years of majority government, managed to persuade millions of Canadians that they have to vote in a different way in this election. Harper managed to grab power by cementing his conservative base, and using wedge politics to open the gap between the split opposition groups.
The Law of Unintended Consequences then stepped in. Men propose, the gods dispose … Voters watched in dismay as the Harper regime proceeded in a very systematic way to implement their hidden agenda of removing any vestige of liberal thought or action from (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Forum Poll: Why Stephen Harper has only 7 days left as prime minister
Just a note for future elections: Debates count. A lot! Far more than most people realize. And the most recent poll by Signal / Toronto Star shows that even debates designed to avoid having millions of Canadians watch them, as our recent series were, count. Here’s a snapshot of voting preferences for the period August 30 until yesterday, with the time of each debate shown by a vertical line. In each and every area of the country, the debates moved the needle, but not to the same extent. Let’s start with the national polls – note the takeoff of Justin (Read more…)
Here’s the chart from Angus Reid on the leadership momentum of the Big 3:
This bodes well for the Liberals in this critical last week of the lengthy campaign.
It you think of the trend then the pre-eminence of Justin Trudeau is even more striking. The desperate attempts of the Harper attack machine to paint him as just not ready have boomeranged badly, and he has clawed his way up from the lowly position he had some 6 months ago, to being Top Dog.
The only worrisome thing for Liberals in this last week of the titanic struggle we have (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau the only leader with momentum
The latest Poll Tracker seat projection 9CBC/308) show the LPC winning the most seats:
You will note from my September 3 X-marks-the-spot projection that I overestimated the NDP seats when I projected more seats for the LPC on October 19:
I would prefer that the NDP win more seats at the expense of the Harper ‘new’ Tories, but if the prediction today happens, then on October 20 Harper will resign as prime minister, as he promised Canadians he would do during his interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge. And on October 20 Justin Trudeau will be sworn in as our (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberal Party ready to give Harper pink slip on October 19
Mulcair has shown a welcome willingness to work with a minority Liberal Party government post-October 19 so as to do two things: work together without the need for a formal coalition agreement between the LPC and NDP, and to establish a commission to examine the best alternatives to be presented to Canadians to replace the first past the post system, not just the modified proportional representation system. Here’s the reported willingness to support confidence votes (without a formal coalition government) if the Liberal Party gets the most votes as between the LPC and NDP, and Trudeau becomes prime minister of (Read more…)
If you are, read this article and vote strategically. Here are 14 of the 16 Doomsday Ridings that can guarantee that Harper is given a pink slip on election day: And, here, to illustrate how it works, are the other 2 ridings: So who wins if the 16 Doomsday Ridings do vote strategically? Firstly, Canada does; we end the Harper tired government and (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The 16 Doomsday Ridings that can fire Harper as PM on October 19: Are you in one of them?
… and joins the ranks of unemployed prime ministers. Today (October 8) the CBC Poll Tracker shows the Liberal Party with the most seats for the very first time: Pause for a moment, all you progressives out there, and give three cheers! With only 11 days to go, the Red Tide is running strongly. Harper publicly promised to Canadians during his interview with Peter (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: If this holds, Stephen Harper gets his pink slip on October 19
Latest Abacus poll confirms surge of the Liberal Party continues in Battleground Ontario:
Ontarians want a new government, that will handle the economy well, develop infrastructure, provide good governance, and act with decency. We will all get that kind of government on October 19. Vote in the advance polls (to avoid any robocalls or other voter suppression tactics), and take a younger voter along with you. Vote so as to unseat a sitting Conservative MP if you have one in your riding.
Trudeau has led his Liberal Party to a forecasted number of MPs equal to those that Harper’s tired Conservatives might elect: 132 MPs each. With neither the CPC nor the LPC having a majority of seats (170 MPs), this result would mean the end of the Harper government, and a new Liberal Party government, with Justin Trudeau as prime minister, and Harper as leader of the Opposition. Here’s the dramatic chart:
Now, if the Liberals claw one extra seat from the CPC or NDP, then Harper will resign as PM on the evening of October 19, as he promised (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal Oct 6: Tories 132 seats; Liberals 132 seats; NDP 71 seats
The Poll Tracker for October 5 shows the steady surge of Liberal Party votes, and translates the various polls into a national seat projection. Harper told Peter Mansbridge that if the Conservatives won one seat less than any other party, he would immediately resign as prime minister. With two weeks to go, the Liberals only need four (that’s right! 4!) more seats to reach the Harper Resignation total:
While you are at the site, check the seat projections and polls for Battlegrounds BC and Ontario. And help make Harper’s decision easier by voting in the advance poll; take someone (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Another 4 LPC seats and Harper resigns on October 19
Mulcair has only two weeks to reverse a dramatic reversal in the minds of voters of just who, in an election where about 70% of the voters want a change, bears the Change mantel. Harper is an also-ran in the Who is the best change agent stakes (offering less of the present is not a recipe for change). Mulcair started the race with the best chance to represent the change that most voters want to take place on October 19. But somewhere on the road his chariot to victory lost a wheel or two and veered off to the right (Read more…)
Today Justin Trudeau had a message for supporters of the Conservative Party that should resonate all the way up to the close of the polls on election night October 19:
But I want you to keep something in mind. Always.
In the end, we are all Canadians.
Conservatives are not our enemies. They’re our neighbours.
They want what’s best for their country, just like (Read more…)
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Trudeau’s Message to Conservative Supporters
The latest Nanos tracking poll for Sunday October 4 is very good news indeed! Please make sure everyone you know who wants change on October 19 gets a copy of this and also shares it with all their friends. Here’s the vital Battleground Ontario results: And here’s what’s happening in the vital battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec and BC (my underlining): The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows that, regionally: The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, with 52.1 per cent support, and in Ontario with 44 per cent support. The Conservatives (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Red Tide moves towards Liberals in Quebec and in Ontario, says Nanos poll
It is not often I get to talk about issues related to the monarchy on this blog. I mostly keep that on the other blog I writefor. However the Monarchist League of Canada recently surveyed the main federal parties on their views towards theCanadian Monarchy. One of the answers was curious though. The NDP’s reply was thus:
“The NDP is not planning any changes to our current form of the parliamentary system. Ourfocus is on meeting the challenges of middle-class families for better jobs, affordablechildcare and reliable healthcare.”
Now there are a few things to (Read more…)
Here’s the Nanos latest poll:
Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 2) – Federal Liberals trend up for last two nights of Nanos tracking National Ballot – In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally. (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberals surge to 43% in Battleground Ontario says Nanos
If you have not bookmarked The Signal for your daily fix of the poll of polls, then do so immediately, and tell your friends to do so as well. As of today, October 3, a change of government on October 19 is even more certain than yesterday, because the LPC and NDP together will have 202 MPs versus Harper’s Swan Song Singers 134. That’s (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Signal for Oct 3: Non-Tory seats 202, Tory seats 134 Result? New government
Say welcome to a new poll of polls aggregator service named The Signal. It is one pollster that you will be checking on a daily basis in the 17 days left before our election on October 19. The Signal is a creation of Vox Pop Labs. This is how the Toronto Star describes it: To gain a more precise picture of the voting landscape (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: What will happen on election day? The Signal points the way: a change of government
Thomas Mulcair: Man of Principle
Mr. Mulcair was asked a simple question, loaded with peril, and he answered it very clearly in the last debate on foreign affairs. His answer to the question whether he agreed with the federal court’s decision regarding the right of a woman to cover her face with a niqab was Yes.
Yes, a woman could do so if she wished for personal reasons or for religious reasons to cover her face during the ceremonial part of the citizenship ceremony. No, she had no right to cover her face during the part of the citizen admission (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Niqab: In defence of Thomas Mulcair
Here’s the stark facts of the state of play from today’s CBC/308 Poll Tracker:
Note that Harper’s Conservatives are still far short of a majority, the only way that Harper will remain prime minister, given the emphatic rejections by both Mulcair and Trudeau of either opposition party voting confidence in a Harper minority government. So Harper needs to reach the magical number of 170 seats to stay in power after election day October 19. And notice that in Ontario, the projected seat total for the Liberals and Conservatives are almost equal today – 53 Conservative, 50 Liberal – with (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Poll Tracker: Harper 125 Mulcair + Trudeau 211 = New Government on October 19
You can find the latest Nanos poll here. The movement amongst the 66% plus non-Harper supporters towards choosing one opposition party to favour on election day October 19 is speeding up. In BC the Liberals have moved up sharply, at the expense of the NDP:
And in Battleground Ontario, with almost one third of the total 338 seats in the House, the battle between the Conservatives and Liberals continues apace, with the NDP fading: Another five days of similar trends, and the message will sink in to even more of the mass of change-seeking voters: time to think seriously of (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberal march in BC speeds up – Nanos poll September 29
Trudeau: The Fighter
Let’s start with the view of how Tom Mulcair behaved in the Munk foreign policy debate, from Gerald Caplan: But if I remove my mask of detachment, I must report that it was not at all the night the NDP needed to recover its faded lead. But there’s still three weeks left – a lifetime in politics. We have the most polarizing and, yes, dangerous, government in Canadian history and we have the NDP positioned to take advantage of it. Yet the NDP focuses its attacks far more on Mr. Trudeau and gives the government almost (Read more…)