Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion in BC
I think Gordon Gibson’s take in the Globe & Mail on the vote-shifting caused by the position-shifting of Dix in the last week of the campaign is the most plausible explanation of why the polls were so different from the actual results:
The NDP looked way ahead before voters went to the polls in British Columbia. Then it all changed. Why? One word: “Pipelines.” Or more precisely, two: “Kinder Morgan.”
Until two weeks ago it was the election of the NDP’s Adrian Dix to lose.
Then he got greedy. Worried (Read more…)
400 parts per million …
Those Albertans who have voted for Harper’s Conservatives in election after election must be starting to wonder whether Stephen Harper and his Cabinet are the best choice for their main industry: oil. They should start to worry, because the Harper Tories are displaying yet again their incompetence when it comes to the really important issues facing Canada. They are fine for scurrying around, giving out little slices of taxpayers’ money to selected micromarkets, but when it comes to the really important things, they are sadly wanting.
The Meltdown Debacle Take the financial meltdown of 2007-2008.
(Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The Harper Government lacks a strategic vision for Canada’s oil industry
I am in complete and utter shock and sadness at the news that Justin Trudeau will become the third Liberal Party leader in a row defined by the formidable Reform-Conservative attack ad machine. This means that Stephen Harper has just won the 2015 election campaign.
I can not believe that this decision could be taken. Those who do not learn from their mistakes are bound to repeat them and we all have a front row seat to the obliteration of another leader’s brand. This will be very painful indeed.
The debate is gathering steam, and Andrew Coyne has posed several questions which every candidate for leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada (and particularly Justin Trudeau, whose father modernized the Canadian democracy almost beyond compare with his priceless gift of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms): Fundamentally, it comes down to this: are the opposition parties serious? Do they really want to beat the Conservatives, or just talk about it? Are they serious about electoral reform, or is it, too, just a talking point? And assuming they mean either, do they realize how crucially each depends on the other? Let me put it plainly: They aren’t going to beat the Conservatives until they change the electoral system. They aren’t going to change the electoral system until they beat the Conservatives. And they aren’t going to do either until they find some way to cooperate.
Justin Trudeau: . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau, read Andrew Coyne if you are a bold, serious leader
Joyce Murray – Progressive Reformer
MP Murray’s position on pre-election cooperation between the Liberal, NDP, Green and Blog parties in order to remove Harper’s right wing government from power, and her commitment to serious electoral reform, bears repeating in full:
Our principal challenge is to give Canada the 21st century electoral system it deserves.
• One that will be responsive to the urgent and long term issues facing the country.• One that will produce rational and thoughtful debate.• One that will encourage the input of diverse perspectives.• One that will enable the best progressive policies to
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberal Leadership Race: Joyce Murray’s Electoral Reforms Promise
Harper Firewall Blinkers
The Harper new Tories keep plugging the line that Harper’s government is a sound manager of Canada’s economy, and is doing all the right things all the time, hoping that constant repetition will persuade Canadian voters to believe this mantra. Unfortunately for Canada, the Harper government is locked into its ideological blinders, which in essence have engraved on the left blinder the phrase ‘Big government bad’ and on the left blinder ‘Small government good’. This wilful blindness has prevented the Harper government from even thinking of acting strategically in the interests of Canada.
Instead, Harper has . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Stephen Harper’s Oil Industry Mismanagement costing Canada dearly
Andrew CoyneAt last we have some candidates for leadership of the Liberal Party who – unlike Justin Trudeau – are prepared to deal with the reality of Canadian politics: our democratic deficit. And journalist Coyne does us all a favour by dis… . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Andrew Coyne gives a good reason for choosing Joyce Murray as Liberal Party leader
Justin Trudeau – The Healer?
The good news for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals just keeps pouring in, with the latest Decima poll showing that the Trudeau name is poison in Quebec is a myth:
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey released Friday says 36 per cent of those who took part in the
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Latest poll debunks Quebec myth about Trudeaus
Justin Trudeau does not believe in tic-tac-toe (noughts and crosses to some of us) politics:
As for Stephen Harper’s policies now, Mr. Trudeau says they are dividing the country, as are NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair’s.
“Mr. Harper put an X over Quebec and is anchoring himself in the West. Mr. Mulcair has recently put an X over Alberta and is pandering for votes in Quebec and Ontario,” Mr. Trudeau said. “That is not the right solution no matter how successful you are at being elected.”
Under “my watch,” he said, “you will not hear a Liberal … saying one
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and tic-tac-toe politics
A Forum poll taken this past weekend (before Trudeau confirmed he is running for leadership of the Liberal Party), shows a huge shift in votes in Toronto, the major city of battleground Ontario: Toronto 2015 ridings
With Trudeau as their leader, the Liberals would claim 40 per cent of the vote in Toronto if an election were held today, thanks to a surge in support from backers of the NDP, according to a Forum Research poll released first to CP24 on Monday. The lion’s share of the votes for a Trudeau-led Liberal Party of Canada would come from current NDP . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Will Toronto go Liberal? Poll says Yes
Lawrence Martin in today’s Globe & Mail raises a very important question about what Justin Trudeau might do to change the system:
Idealism is the currency of the young and, if Justin Trudeau is to succeed and the Liberal Party to have new life, a new sense of it is essential. His appeal should be one of broad scope.
It should be nothing less than an appeal to “change the system.” Lawrence Martin: Change the system, Justin
The young are so turned off by how Ottawa operates that only a sweeping reform will suffice. Pierre Trudeau’s vision for
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: A Political Tinkerer or a man with a Bold Vision for Canada?
The Conservatives have maintained their muscular advantage over both major competitors in fundraising in 2011: The Liberals raised $10,119,908.62 from 49,650 donors last year, according to their annual financial return. The NDP raised $7,427,060.63 from 37,778 donors, according to the party’s annual return which was filed late with Elections Canada…
The Conservatives, meanwhile, out-fundraised all parties, which it has consistently been doing for the past five years. According the party’s annual return, the Conservatives raised a record $22.7-million in 2011, from 110,267 donors. The Donor Pools: The key lies in the number of donors, and the . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Conservative Party machine still dominates the Canadian political space
Ask anybody about Pierre Trudeau’s major contributions to Canadian politics, and you will find many who will point to the repatriation of the constitution, and the enshrinement in our new constitution of our now world-famous Charter of Rights & Freedoms. That Charter has resounded throughout the world, and is used as a template wherever people gather to draft democratic reforms for other countries. Like father, like son?
It defined in unmistakable terms the red line where the rights of the Canadian state ended and the rights and freedoms of Canadians began. And it has been even more significant in that . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: How Justin Trudeau can leave a legacy as great as his father did
Andrew Cohen reflects in the Ottawa Citizen upon the Trudeau brand, and its impact on Justin Trudeau, in a good summary of what Pierre Trudeau means to Canadians: Andrew Cohen on Trudeau
His name is Trudeau. In political currency, his name is a promissory note of hope, expectation and sentimentality, much like a Gandhi in India or a Kennedy in the United States. And if that name — evoking an ideal of leadership as well as an idea of country — resounds in today’s Canada, it is because almost three decades after he led it, today’s Canada is . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Well said, Andrew Cohen!
The National Post has an exclusive poll that shows that the Liberal Party would win a national election if Justin Trudeau became its leader:
In an exclusive poll conducted for the National Post, Forum found if Mr. Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party and an election were held today, the Grits would win, handily, with 39% of the popular vote. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would come in second, with 32% of the vote, and the NDP — today the Official Opposition and led by Thomas Mulcair — would return to third-party status, with just 20% of the vote. . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: The Tide Turneth
Jonathan Kay of the National Post has an interesting reply to those commentators who describe Justin Trudeau as a lightweight politician: Justin Trudeau into the ring?
It’s fashionable to write off Mr. Trudeau as a lightweight, and his party as a spent force. But recent events in Quebec — specifically, Pauline Marois’ election as premier, and the student strikes that indirectly brought her separatist party to power — suggest there is an avenue for the Liberals, with Mr. Trudeau at the helm, to make themselves relevant again in Canadian politics, and perhaps even make a play for power.
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Kay on Justin Trudeau: He’s not just a Pretty Face
In today’s Globe & Mail Ibbitson sets out some reasons why Justin Trudeau deciding to run for Liberal Party leadership is a good thing for the party. His point about Trudeau’s Quebec roots is especially relevant, in my view: Justin Trudeau
There is the storied name, of course. For better or for worse, family dynasties are often a fact of life in democracies. The name Trudeau is to Canada what the name Kennedy was to the United States. The parallel is far from exact, but it’s close enough to matter. A lot.
Then there is the fact that Mr. Trudeau’s
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: John Ibbitson gives some good reasons for choosing Justin Trudeau
The 2015 election is already on, with Stephen Harper trying to choose the ballot question as anything but the poor Conservative performance in so many areas, the party’s blunders and scandals, and the fact that deep down so many Canadians still do not really trust his party and particularly him. What is the Ballot Box Question? Harper’s choice for the ballot box question is therefore this: Which party is the best to manage Canada’s economy? And which party leader is the best man to do so Mulcair knows this, and he is trying to come to grips with it. The . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Should Mulcair channel Hillary Clinton on the Ballot Box Question?
Just started reading Fear and Loathing: One the Campaign Trail ’72, by Hunter S. Thompson, and came across this passage early on:
There are only two ways to make it in big-time politics today: One is to come on like a mean dinosaur, with a high-powered machine that scares the shit out of your entrenched opposition (like Daley or Nixon) … and the other is to tap the massive, frustrated energies of the mainly young, disillusioned electorate that has long since abandoned the idea that we all have a duty to vote. This is like being told you have . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: The key to renewed Liberal Party power: The Untouched Constituency
The Cat believes that it is almost certain that Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.
If he does not, his credibility would be severely dented should he wish to become leader at some future date. The party needs him now. The country needs him now. These are calls that any politician cannot simply brush aside, not if he or she is a serious politician, wishing to make a difference to the country.
Justin Trudeau at the Calgary Stampede
Within a week or so of Trudeau`s announcement of his run, I expect opinion polls . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau and the expected reverse voter migrations
This snippet from this interesting article is worth considering, given the polls showing the slow motion collapse of support for the Harper new Tories across the country: Prentice is well-regarded within Conservative and corporate circles. He’s received lavish press over the years from the country’s biggest newspapers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Prentice eventually plays a role if there’s any palace revolt within Conservative ranks—primarily because Harper’s bellicose take-no-prisoners approach may not be achieving all of Bay Street’s objectives in the tar sands.
As 2015 nears, expect Harper to pre-empt the election date by calling for an earlier election (my
. . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Stephen Harper’s doubful future – Rumblings
If Justin Trudeau was leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and an election was held today, then three of Thomas Mulcair’s nightmare events would take place Firstly, and most seriously, roughly 1 in 3 NDP supporters would switch their votes to the Liberals. Secondly, the LPC and CPC . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Thomas Mulcair’s worst nightmare
The answer? Not very sticky. The straw in the wind of the huge problem facing Mulcair and his NDP MPs in Quebec comes from the June 15 Forum poll, which showed this result:
Take a long hard look at that result. Despite the NDP having the wind in its sails for many months now, despite all the pundits pontificating about how the NDP has become the default anti-Tory choice of Canadians, despite the pundits solemnly tossing handfuls of soil on the coffin of the Liberal Party of Canada, if Justin Trudeau lead the Liberals into battle around June 15 . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Justin Trudeau: Just how sticky is Quebec support for Thomas Mulcair’s NDP?
Come the election, with the Harper new Tories brand tarnished ever more every day, the polls have for the last few weeks shown that Harper will be out as prime minister in the 2014/2015 election, with the NDP having the most seats but not a majority. The latest Forum poll shows the probable seats held if the election were held right now:
What does this mean? Firstly, en end to the democracy-adverse Tories: their brief fling at moving the country away from Parliamentary niceties into new terrain that is nasty and brutish, will prove to be a short fling. Secondly, . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Liberals will hold the balance of power in the next Parliament