Forum tale of the seats
Tom Mulcair is headed towards becoming prime minister of a government with a hefty chunk of seats in Parliament, just shy of a majority, according to the latest Forum poll: A Forum Research poll conducted a few hours after Stephen Harper officially called the 2015 federal election on Sunday shows that 39 per cent of Canadian voters would vote NDP if the election were held today. According to the poll, released Monday, the Harper Conservatives, who tied the New Democrats on the even of the call, tumbled to 28 per cent. The Liberals came (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Forum poll: Harper in free fall and Mulcair headed for strong minority government
In response to my morning post, ThinkingManNeil offered some passionate and very interesting comments. With his permission, I am featuring them as a separate post:
I was never really interested in politics until the mid-1990′s. Up to then I felt like many that it was something that politicians, poli-sci majors, and pundits busied themselves with, and through glacially slow processes it worked its way into our everyday lives with little notice. I voted regularly – usually Liberal, though I did once vote for the PC’s because Joe Clarke struck me as a decent man – but my votes were (Read more…)
So Mulcair has decided he will only debate if the prime minister is debating? And Harper has decided not to debate in a forum that would attract the widest public viewership. This leaves the Liberals twisting in the wind. Or does it? One of the secrets of martial arts is to use the momentum of your opponent against him. You go with his movement, but change it to your advantage. Justin Trudeau can do this and stop this Harper-Mulcair spoiled-child bickering with a proposal to the CBC consortium that would allow their debate to take place, and would (Read more…)
The mighty Globe & Mail has spoken, on this, the first day of our election campaign. The writ has been dropped, and the G&M has carried the golden election forecast down from the mountain top, and is displaying it for all to see. As of today, this is the entrails of the portent-indicating G&M chicken:
Methinks there is one of the 6 projections that we can all take to the bank: the 95% chance that the LPC and NDP will together gain a majority of seats in the new Parliament. As for the 79% chance the Tories will have (Read more…)
A key statistic is not who favours what party before election day, but how many voters actually cast a vote on that day. Seniors vote. Younger voters don’t vote in the same proportions. The latest EKOS poll explains why Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister on September 20, 2015, leading a minority government: Neither the Liberal Party nor the NDP has managed to make big enough inroads into the senior vote in order to knock Harper’s Conservatives out of power. This means the key to who will actually govern Canada will be settled in the months after the election, (Read more…)
Seems the Trudeau attack ad works with Conservatives but is making NDP supporters think about voting for Trudeau’s Liberals: A Conservative Party attack ad targeting Liberal leader Justin Trudeau for being “just not ready” to lead the country is actually working to convince Canadians to vote for him, a Forum Research poll has discovered. The survey found that 32 per cent of Canadians who had seen the ad were now more likely to vote Liberal in the upcoming federal election. The ad is having an adverse effect on NDP supporters as 21 per cent said viewing it made them more (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Harper’s Just Not Ready attack boomerangs!
Steve Harper makes a mockery of of fixed date elections
Prime Minister Stephen Harper will call an election as early as this Sunday, kicking off what would be the longest federal election campaign in
Lots of speculation in the MSM and social media about when Stevie is going to visit the GG. The conventional wisdom is that he will make the walk (naw, he’ll be driven) sometime in August in order to make a long campaign a reality; a campaign where the CPC can spend, spend, spend their way […]
A must-read article by Bruce Livesey in the National Observer should send chills down the spines of the 60% of Canadians who do not want Stephen Harper to win another election in October. Here is a snippet about the Kenny outreach to conservative minorities:
Another effective strategy was championed by Jason Kenney, who would later be Harper’s immigration minister (and current defence minister) – tapping into the rich pool of voters among new immigrants. These voters had traditionally voted Liberal, but Kenney saw that many of them were social conservatives and felt the Tories had ignored them for too (Read more…)
The most significant statistic in the latest EKOS snapshot of Canadian politics is that the “new” Conservatives lead by PM Stephen Harper have now plunged to a level in anticipated support which is 30% below the votes they garnered in the May 2011 election:
You can find the EKOS report through the reference in this Huffingtonpost article. The Tories are 12 percent lower in the latest poll than they were on election day 2011. That’s a 30% plunge in total votes! Now ask yourself: You are in early July with an election in October. Almost 1 in 3 of (Read more…)
The numberof non-runners is staggering: Stephen Harper is losing incumbent lawmakers at one of the highest rates in decades, and history suggests that weighs heavily on the Canadian Prime Minister’s chances of winning another term in power later this year.
Of 166 Conservatives elected to the House of Commons during Harper’s first majority in 2011, at least 46 are not running for the party this fall. It’s the third-highest dropout rate since the Second World War and the highest since 1993, according to data compiled by Bloomberg… Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the first Prime Minister since Louis St. (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015: Incredibly, 28% of Harper’s Conservative MPs are not running
Global News graphic of the horse race
James Armstrong of Global News has a fascinating article about the findings of the Barry Kay team of the Laurier Institute, with three really illuminating graphics. The three diagrams clearly spell out the problems facing the Liberals and the Conservatives, if either Trudeau or Harper are to have a chance of becoming prime minister. Analysing recent polls, Kay projects that if the federal election were held today, Mulcair’s NDP would win the most seats – 130 –with Harper’s tattered Tories coming in with 119, and the Liberals bringing up the rear with (Read more…)
Here’s one interesting finding from the June 16 Forum poll: The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (43%), the least wealthy (39%) and the wealthiest (37%), in BC (30%) and among the best educated (43%).
The Liberal vote is common to older voters (45 to 54 and 65+ – 31%), the wealthiest (34%), in the Atlantic provinces (38%, down from 53% two weeks ago) and Ontario (31%). among Anglophones (31%) but not Francophones (15%), and among females (29%) but not males (26%).
The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (29%), males (30%), the wealthier (Read more…) . . . → Read More: CuriosityCat: Election 2015 Seniors will determine who is Prime Minister of Canada come late October
Just when Tom Mulcair was starting to measure the curtains in Harper’s home so that he could replace them when he became Prime Minister; when the polls showed a surge of votes for the NDP after the dramatic events in the recent Alberta election; and when pundits have started writing about Justin Trudeau being a washed up politician, Trudeau has taken to the airwaves to unveil a set of promises that will radically change the way that Canadians vote for and interact with their federal government.
The scope of the changes included in the plans to restore democracy in Canada (Read more…)
Yes, Prime Minister …
Yesterday’s EKOS poll results released by Frank Graves have plenty of food for thought.
The poll results are worth detailed study by anyone trying to get a fix on what will happen in the coming election.
One thing right now, based on this poll snapshot, is that a minority government is considered more likely than a majority government come October this year. The only question to be determined is: Who will be Prime Minister when 2015 ends? Stephen Harper is toast: Even if Harper wins a minority government, his chances of staying in power beyond the first (Read more…)
Today’s announcement that Peter MacKay is not going to run for his seat in Parliament this fall has me thinking that maybe this is a sign that Stephen Harper is losing control of his party finally. Some months ago when John Baird announced that he was stepping down to spend more time with his corporations, […]
With the new round of polls in the hopper and the NDP surge from their surprising provincial victory in Alberta quantified, if it didn’t before, it looks like the national election campaigns are firmly up and running for the three major political parties. The campaign ads are beginning to appear and the editorials are getting […]
So says ipolitics (pay wall), referring to the NDP surge that was confirmed this week by polls released by EKOS and by other groups. They go on to demonstrate that, while NDP numbers jumped dramatically with the recent Alberta provincial election results, the upsurge really began as early as February. What this graph (shown below) also […]
It’s not exactly news that Stephen Harper and his merry band are willing to cut a few corners when it comes to getting democratically elected. It’s also probably not news that the party that has been found guilty on several occasions of major financial shenanigans when it comes to advertisements and campaigning has also found […]
Mister 100 Percent Satisified
Move aside, YouTube: here come the new, improved Harper Tories’ Vanity Videos, made especially for every Canadian voter:
Employment Minister Pierre Poilievre won’t apologize for using taxpayer dollars to produce YouTube videos of himself promoting the universal child care benefit.Poilievre insisted Friday that he’s simply using innovative ways to inform Canadians about the newly enriched and expanded child benefit.But opposition MPs denounced the “vanity videos” as a new low for a government that has a penchant for producing partisan advertising on the public dime. And the Canadian Taxpayers Federation agreed.
The Cat has (Read more…)
Prime Minister Mulcair?
A logjam in our politics has been broken by a string of elections over the past two years. Things that were unheard of before, now are reality. Parties that conventional wisdom assumed could not widen their base throughout the country, suddenly are sending dynasties to the trash heap.
And based on this week’s snapshot Forum poll, we are headed for a new government come October, with the old Tory one unable to win a confidence vote:
“It is clear the Notley victory in Alberta has shaken up the federal political scene,” Bozinoff said in a statement. (Read more…)
I’m all in favour of voting your conscience. I’m all in favour of voting for the person who best will represent your riding. However, in the screwed up system that we currently have, your ballot gets used to determine both MP and governing party. And, since a party in power will whip the vote to […]
I do, I really do. I try not to lose it. I try to keep it civil. I try to hold it together. But then this: Pierre Polievre is a fucking worm.
Good news: the Conservative Party has refused to debate the other opposition leaders before the traditional news broadcasters, and have suggested a dramatically different – and very welcome – change of format.
But this decision by Harper’s election brains trust might prove to be the first major blunder in their campaign.
Unlike the kneejerk reactions from some pundits that this change plays to Harper’s strengths, and kneecaps Justin Trudau, the odds are that Harper is the one who will lose in the new style debates.
Stephen Maher in the National Post describes the surprise change in the debate rules (Read more…)
If the Trans Pacific Partnership is really the biggest game on the planet, why really is it okay to negotiate it in complete secrecy? Secrecy to the point that our elected representatives, who theoretically should have our best interests at heart (heh) can’t even see the thing? Why is it that the only details we […]