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daveberta.ca – Alberta Politics: Alberta’s 2012 election campaign kicked-off four years ago today

Considering the incredible political change that has taken place in Alberta in the past few years, it is almost difficult to believe that it has only been four years since Alberta’s political parties were rolling out their campaigns on the firs… . . . → Read More: daveberta.ca – Alberta Politics: Alberta’s 2012 election campaign kicked-off four years ago today

Calgary Grit: 2012 Woman of the Year

Every December, I like to name a “Person of the Year” – the individual who left their mark on Canadian politics over the past year. The only rules are that the PM is too obvious a choice, and that lame picks (“You!”) are strictly verboten. The Person of the Year doesn’t need to be someone . . . → Read More: Calgary Grit: 2012 Woman of the Year

David Climenhaga's Alberta Diary: Assessing Alison Redford and Danielle Smith: one minute you’re a hero and the next you’re a bum!

Wellington rallies his troops during the Battle of Waterloo. “The nearest run thing you ever saw in your life.” Below: I think you’ve all seen enough photos of Alison Redford and Danielle Smith, so here are Wellington and Harold Wilson.

All things being equal, if Alison Redford’s party had emerged from the April 23 . . . → Read More: David Climenhaga’s Alberta Diary: Assessing Alison Redford and Danielle Smith: one minute you’re a hero and the next you’re a bum!

CalgaryGrit: Who saw it coming?

The answer to that question is “not very many of us”.

More than 190 people entered the joint daveberta.ca and CalgaryGrit Great Alberta Election Pool, but like nearly all the pollsters and pundits, most entries were far away from the actual results on election night. Just 15% predicted a PC majority, and only 2 people . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Who saw it coming?

CalgaryGrit: Margin of Error

I don’t think I’ve ever followed an election where the polls were as horribly off the mark as they were in Alberta.

Last May, when the media jumped on the “pollsters blew it” bandwagon for not projecting a Tory majority, most companies were still within the margin of error on the final vote intent numbers. . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Margin of Error

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 28: What to expect tomorrow

I’ve already written about the difficulties of using seat projection models due to the unique circumstances of this Alberta election. So rather than crunch the numbers, I thought it might prove more useful to conduct a “wisdom of the masses” exercise, by looking at the predictions being made in  the Great Alberta Election pool. Here’s . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 28: What to expect tomorrow

CalgaryGrit: How I’d Vote

Far be it for me to tell anyone in Alberta how to vote. I don’t live in the province anymore, and my biases are right there for you to see in this website url. I’m a Liberal, and voting Liberal is almost a reflex by this point.

At the same time, I fully expect my . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: How I’d Vote

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Election Pool

On Monday, Albertans will go to the polls in what is already being dubbed a “historic” election. The outcome is uncertain, so why not gaze into your crystal ball and enter the Daveberta and CalgaryGrit election pool.

It’s simple enough – predict the seat totals for each party and answer 10 bonus questions. Everyone gets . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Election Pool

CalgaryGrit: Dear Alberta PCs: Welcome to life as a Liberal

Dear Progressive Conservatives,

First off, congrats on the 40 years in power. It was a good run and, speaking on behalf of the Alberta Liberal Party, I’d like to think we played a small role in making it possible.

But the latest polls show Danielle Smith and her band of lovable homophobes poised for power . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Dear Alberta PCs: Welcome to life as a Liberal

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 25: "Fuck it, I’m voting PC"

When you know the PCs are going to take 70% of the vote in your riding and 80% of the seats in the province, there’s not a lot of strategy involved in your vote. You vote your conscience, knowing there is no way your check mark could possibly make a difference. It’s no surprise the . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 25: "Fuck it, I’m voting PC"

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel

Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings?

Despite a lackluster debate performance by Alison Redford, a pair of post-debate polls show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With daily controversies dogging Danielle Smith, there’s no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it’s impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel

CalgaryGrit: There goes another $1,000 "good behaviour" bond

Wildrose candidate Ron Leech sees “being white” as his biggest advantage in this election. Personally, I think his biggest advantage is having a leader who doesn’t seem to care that he sees “being white” as his biggest advantage in this election. Because any other leader would have punted him from the ticket within minutes . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: There goes another $1,000 "good behaviour" bond

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 23: Born this Way

Above: Surely Allan Hunsperger sees the slippery slope this picture represents

I think it’s safe to assume Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsperger’s $1,000 “good conduct bond” is as good as gone:

Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsperger wrote about his views on homosexuality on his blog in 2011. Hunsperger, a minister with The House church in Tofield, suggested . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 23: Born this Way

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 22: Closing Arguments

With a week to go, the parties in Alberta must now try to seal the deal with voters. You’ll hear pithy one-liners as spin machines go into overdrive, but here’s the brutally honest closing pitch I’d use for each party:

Alison Redford’s PCs: “I get that a lot of Albertans want to send us a . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 22: Closing Arguments

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 20: Notes From Week 3

On the Debate

Reaction from yours truly, Hatrock, Santos, Tougas, and Daveberta.

On Going Neg

1. A former Liberal MLA offers the PCs free advice on how to go neg, envisioning grainy and unflattering pictures of Smith with an ominous voice over warning “Danielle Smith wants to bring American-style health care to Alberta“.

2. The . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 20: Notes From Week 3

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 19: The Morning After

The hype machines were in overdrive for yesterday’s Alberta Leaders Debate, but the outcome was similar to most debates: steady but unspectacular performances from all the candidates, with the end result nothing more than re-enforcing existing attitudes. The post-debate Ipsos poll bears that out; when asked who won, 37% opted for Smith, 28% for . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 19: The Morning After

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Debate Live Blog

Discuss!

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 18: Debate Night in Edmonton

More often than not, the Alberta leader’s debate is a mere formality, intended to create a vaneer of democracy in a province where elections tend to be meaningless. It’s barely worth watching, because even if someone delivers the mythic “knock out punch”, it doesn’t affect the election outcome. Hell, had Ed Stelmach literally gone over . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 18: Debate Night in Edmonton

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 14: Party of One

Notes from week 2 of the Alberta election, as Alison Redford tries to resurrect her campaign over Easter Weekend.

1. Daveberta’s post on the Wildrose Party’s more controversial candidates has generated over 100 responses and heavy online debate – not surprising, given the limited coverage by the mainstream media on this topic so far. Which . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 14: Party of One

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 12: Who says a 40 year old government can’t come up with new ideas?

Raj Sherman delivers perhaps the best line of the campaign so far:

‘Alison Redford Invents Triage’

Alberta’s Tory leader has announced money for faster treatment in emergency rooms, but the Grit leader — an ER physician — says the program is already in place.

Tory Leader Alison Redford said patients with serious injuries will be . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 12: Who says a 40 year old government can’t come up with new ideas?

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 11: A Wild Wave Sweeps Across Alberta

Dear Wildrose Party candidates,

It’s time to book a return ticket from Vegas: Wildrose pulling ahead of PCs in election campaign: poll Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll New Poll: Wildrose up by 17 points

While the Wildrose lead ranges from 7 to 17 points on these polls, the trend is clear on all . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 11: A Wild Wave Sweeps Across Alberta

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 9: Ralphbucks Returns

On Sunday, the Wildrose Party released an April Fools press release, proposing to merge Alberta and Saskatchewan. On Monday, they took the silliness up a level:

Wildrose promises cash rebates to Albertans if oil money creates budget surplus

CREMONA, Alta. – Alberta’s Wildrose party is promising free oil money for all if it win’s the . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 9: Ralphbucks Returns

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 5: This time, when we say "It’s time", it really is time

A collection of random nuggets from the first week on the campaign trail…

1. The leader’s debate has been set for 6:30 mountain time on Thursday, April 12th. Unless of course, the Flames make the playoffs and play that night, in which case the leaders will fall over each other to demand it get moved.

. . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 5: This time, when we say "It’s time", it really is time

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 4: Danielle Smith comes out as the "anti-change" candidate

If you’ve been reading my Alberta political posts over the past few years, you’ve probably deduced that I’m a fan of Danielle Smith. Not in the sense that I’d vote for her (especially with socially regressive positions like this), but Smith is an impressive politician – smart, articulate, charismatic, thoughtful.

From that perspective, this is . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 4: Danielle Smith comes out as the "anti-change" candidate

CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 3: Time to bring back Ed?

In retrospect, maybe it wasn’t such a good idea for Alison Redford to call the election after a month of wall-to-wall scandal and controversy.

Two more polls have been released today – let’s start with the bad news for Alison Redford.

Leger Marketing confirms the statistical tie we saw in two polls Monday: PC . . . → Read More: CalgaryGrit: Alberta Votes Day 3: Time to bring back Ed?